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De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

jpmorgan.com

691–700 of 913 posts

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#691

Earlier quoted context omitted.

German here: I'd go to war (and likely will, with how it's looking currently) for any country that shares our values and is an ally or friend, that's being attacked by an evil force such as russia. And that of course includes my french brothers to the west.

Thanks German brother :) I think our main issue in Europe is the lack of a common language. It makes it harder to build strong ties and realize how close our values are.

Vat hapened tu ze komon English I got mail abaut 20 yers ago?

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#692
post #433

Earlier quoted context omitted.

OK, how do I know that gold is pure and real? What if you live on the other side of the world and I want to buy that gold from you? And there isn't any "hope" involved in bitcoin transactions. Connecting to the peer to peer network is super simple (way, way easier than creating a brokerage or bank account, and no ID or approval is required). Miners will pick up your transaction (and yes fees will help speed that up,…

Bitcoin doesn't really solve the trust issue, because it covers half the transaction. If I send you a bunch of bitcoin in exchange for oil, how do I ensure the oil shows up? There are fixes to that problem, of course, but it's not bitcoin itself that's the solution.

50% of a transaction verified is a whole lot better than 0%

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#693
post #595

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's more of a payment processor issue than a device issue. If you are in a country or area with a large Chinese population, you can usually pay easily in RMB with Alipay. If you use Visa and Mastercard, you are subject to US regulations, sanctions, and embargoes. Many alternative payment processor exist, PIX in Brazil, UPI in India, etc. There are several systems in the EU: Wero, Bizum, BLIK It is urgent that Europe…

An integrated European payments system should be very high up on the priorities list of the European Commision. I believe every EU country already has its own version of a QR code payment, I don't know why can't they connect "easily" connect them.

Here in Belgium I have the impression there's steady progress towards such a system: https://wero-wallet.eu

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#694

The international value of the dollar as a reserve and trade currency is inherently tied to the behavior of the US Government and the Federal Reserve. The behavior of the US Government has been very unusual lately, and the independence of the Federal Reserve is actively being challenged. So draw from that whatever conclusions you wish.

> So draw from that whatever conclusions you wish.

Sure but replaced by what? The abysmal failure that the EUR is? Or a chinese currency?

What other options are there besides either a Chinese currency or the EUR?

Chinese. EUR.

Seen these twho choices, everybody understands why the USD isn't anywhere near losing its dominance status.

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#695

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Your linked page doesn't actually appear to render any sort of compelling argument for this. In fact - the entire argument seems to more accurately hinge the conditional left off the main saying, so the full description is: "Bad money drives out good if they exchange for the same price." But that requires a legal structure that enforces the disparity, and the summary of the whole thing basically boils down to: --- If…

In practice, everyone wants to spend their dollars, not their gold, or their bitcoin, or their Euros, and so dollars it will be. What else is there that anyone both with pay with and will be accepted by the other party?

Soon dollars might not be accepted if US companies wants to buy things in the EU, they will have to pay in euros (part of the anti coercion instrument that Macron and others have been talking about the last couple of days)

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#696

Earlier quoted context omitted.

German here: I'd go to war (and likely will, with how it's looking currently) for any country that shares our values and is an ally or friend, that's being attacked by an evil force such as russia. And that of course includes my french brothers to the west.

That's pretty caveated. Not exactly a ringing war cry Shares values AND Ally AND Being attacked AND Attacker is evil I think you'll continue to be safe posting on HN

People place individual, stringent conditions on life threatening responses? Keep going, you're on to something there.

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#697

I remember studying pre-WWI history, and particularly how carefully Bismarck arranged German foreign policy like he was the diplomatic equivalent of Bobby Fischer. Everything was situated perfectly and Germany was totally content. Then along came the absolute moron Wilhelm, and he managed to Leroy Jenkins Germany's beautifully arranged relationships into an aggressive, tactless nightmare where all Germany's allies we…

You can also draw a comparison with the late imperial stage of other empires, most recently the British. The British Empire actually reached its greatest territorial extent in the 1920s and 30s, but it was overextended, policymaking was becoming increasingly erratic and in hindsight we can see the writing was already on the wall

The British didn't really make unforced errors like Germany did, though. They mostly were forced into a fire sale situation as they were fighting for their lives. Even with everything they sold off, they were still within an inch of surrendering. The French story is similar. They may have been in a slow decline, but the war threw them off a cliff.

It's hard to look at what the US is doing and not become extremely angry, because historically the dumb hubristic nationalism always leads to crushing misery. It's so utterly predictable, and yet we're forced to watch the idiocy play itself out again.

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#698
post #404

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's a peer to peer system that has had 100% uptime since around 2009. I think maybe you have cognitive dissonance?

Because it’s geopolitically irrelevant, not because it’s robust. Split the user base along geopolitical axes and see how long the consensus algorithm lasts. Gold bars don’t have this problem.

Huh? Sorry, I don't understand any of what you are saying now.

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#699

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The U.S. is as stable as it gets. It has been one continuous republic and has 250 years of legal stability and a history of paying its debts. It has 4.2% GDP growth, with the largest economy in the world and growing.

> 250 years of legal stability America was never a stable country. That 250 years includes: * A decade of chaos under the impotent Articles of Confederation. * The deliberately engineered election of George Washington to create the illusion of political stability, a reign which only ended because George stepped down voluntarily. * An immediate constitutional crisis the moment a competitive election happened, causing…

Really love this, seriously great analysis (even though I'd quibble on a few points).

Stability is a relative thing though. It's hard to judge this except in relation to what other countries were doing.

>Various Euro nations

Suicided in 1900s and destroyed everything they built

>China

Collapse, civil war, famine, poverty

*pretty good for ~30 years

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#700

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Currencies fundamentally relate to some trust. I believe that the near-term de-dollarization isn't as much trust erosion as it is a tool to provide monetary penalty for behaving in unpredictable ways. However it will provide incentive to move away from the dollar in the long-term, ie as Fareed Zakaria says "recent actions are accelerating the world to the multipolar future".

> I believe that the near-term de-dollarization isn't as much trust erosion as it is a tool to provide monetary penalty for behaving in unpredictable ways. How is that different from trust erosion?

Monetary penalties are different from trust erosion in that they are the test of whether trust can be restored, ie you are acting very unpredictable => I am going to show you I'm paying attention and hit you with a penalty and watch your response. If you continue to show you are unpredictable => I plan an exit so that I don't _have_ to trust you, ie trust erosion.

Ultimately if there's too much unpredictable behavior the pain endured will become higher than the pain of eroding trust... which if trust was truly eroding would be signaled by establishment of monetary systems independent of the US, probably with the International Monetary Fund as a base, backed by at least India, China & Europe.

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