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American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis

kielinstitut.de

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Re: American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis

#691

Post by betty_staples »

b00ty4breakfast wrote: post #619
lostlogin wrote: post #484

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> In Israel, virtually every Christian relic is fake. The Italian Catholics have got a handle on this with many of their relics. Bits of various saints are in glass boxes all over Italy. Presumably they could be DNA tested?

DNA tested for what, exactly? I guess things like fragmentary remains may not be human, but a full skull is not so easy to confuse for a donkey. Ethnicity would only be useful if the saint in question had origins that would be out of place in Italy or if they had a specific ethnicity(like St Peter's remains not having a Levantine origin).

Yes well there are other things you could do with a DNA genotype than tag ethnicity or confirm it's human. Specifically related to a similarity metric between genotypes (which is how we go about arriving at an ethnicity estimate)

For example

if said saint has any known living relatives (and we are certain of that), then this confirms the veracity of the relic.

if said saint has multiple relics of various body parts, we DNA test each one and examine concordance.

of course a DNA test may QC fail, not enough DNA, too low quality, etc. But if it passes then we potentially have dead to rights a confirmation or refutation of the relic. For this reason I expect the church would be quite recalcitrant to have it tested, because there is a possible outcome that the relic is revealed to be a fake

Re: American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis

#692

Post by immibis »

maxerickson wrote: post #665
brightball wrote: post #566

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In fairness to this report, the report is about tariffs and their impact on...imported goods affected directly by tariffs isn't it? From an overall economic policy standpoint, missing facts that provide context are pretty important especially when you're trying to paint an entire side of the isle as completely brainwashed. Nobody can have a conversation when we create straw men to argue with. Other relevant context:…

Did the price of eggs come down because of tariffs or because of increased imports? Please provide this fact also.

How would raising the price of eggs lower the price of eggs?

Re: American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis

#693

Post by immibis »

brightball wrote: post #593
lovich wrote: post #584

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The US trade deficit just hit its lowest points since 2009 due to decreased imports and increased exports, which rose by record amounts. Why is this positive? And I’m not implying it’s negative either. It’s just a fact sans context on the effect of the market unless you’ve bought the current admins argument that a trade deficit means you’re getting ripped off. > US Q4 2025 GDP grew by 5.5%, outpacing China at 4.5%.…

Added a link to the original post for the Q4 GDP forecast quickly. > Why is this positive? And I’m not implying it’s negative either. It’s just a fact sans context on the effect of the market unless you’ve bought the current admins argument that a trade deficit means you’re getting ripped off. When would increased exports not be a good thing for any country? The tariff conversation was interesting for me in particula…

"Trade deficit" is another word for "free stuff" and also another word for "being the world's reserve currency". America receives massive quantities of free stuff from other countries and gets to control the banking system of the entire world as a side effect (this is how it manages to collect taxes from non-resident citizens and how it makes sanctions meaningful). Why doesn't America want that to continue?

Re: American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis

#694

Post by immibis »

CalChris wrote: post #687
thrance wrote: post #609

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're acting like Democrats are as deep in the cult of personality as Republicans are, yet outside of the most corporate liberal circles, Harris and Biden are heavily held in contempt by most of the Left.

No, Harris and Biden are not heavily held in contempt by most of the Left. I'm on the Left and voted for both of them. Indeed, as a Progressive, I was pleasantly surprised by Biden for his withdrawal from Afghanistan, student loan forgiveness, his canceling the Keystone Pipeline, etc.

Being pleasantly surprised by things that should be the bare minimum is not a sign you hold him in high regard. How do you feel about his attacks on Gaza?

Re: American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis

#695

Post by immibis »

LexiMax wrote: post #535
brightball wrote: post #325

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don’t usually bother reacting strongly to anything on HN but that is a complete fabrication.

Is this a bot? Is this someone telling an unpopular truth on an alt account? Is this someone telling a fabrication on an alt account? The best part about Hacker News is that you can't really know. It's a problem inherent to the kind of social space HN is trying to be; open registration, and lax control over abuse of user moderation tools.

HN is more tightly controlled than it lets on. User moderation tools are suspended if a user doesn't use them in accordance with a pro-corporate right-wing bias.

Re: American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis

#696

Post by immibis »

Glyptodon wrote: post #314
BanAntiVaxxers wrote: post #121

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

Much like I think if any Dem other than Hillary Clinton ran against Trump for his winning term 1, I think if the Dems had a proper primary process for this last election they'd probably have picked somebody who'd also have won. That said, I'm not sure being a woman was worse than being from CA or black with a solid chunk of the electorate. (I'm reminded of how some of my own relatives seemed to want to avoid visiting…

Dems broadly want Trump-esque policies to be enacted. They don't care if it's them or the republicans enacting those policies. They do need to fill both slots to prevent any danger of a left wing person getting elected.

Re: American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis

#697

Post by UncleMeat »

groundzeros2015 wrote: post #689
UncleMeat wrote: post #679

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I have no idea what you are saying. Are you saying that my aunt would suddenly change her mind about the nature of the Trump tariffs to understand that they achieve a totally different outcome than she thinks over a totally different time frame? She already thinks that Trump has saved american manufacturing and that the deficit problem is gone. Why would she change that opinion?

My understanding is that if she was corrected to the proper understanding of Tariffs, she would not change her support of the tariff. Therefore debunking what "dumb people think" is still pointless. Because they aren't really advocating for a particular policy, they are advocating for a direction which is well represented by a whole family of policies - in particular the strong form.

I still don't understand how this relates.

But whatever this is, it seems irrelevant. The original post said that the description of somebody like my aunt was a strawman. It is not.

Re: American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis

#698

Post by cloche »

gtirloni wrote: post #268
eudamoniac wrote: post #156

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Like you observed, no one with a grasp of economics thought exporters would absorb the cost of these tariffs. That includes myself, a person who supports tariffs. I don't think it should be necessary to explain why tariffs might be desirable, because they were not invented by idiots, but I will explain briefly. Tariffs make foreign imports more expensive. This dissuades people from buying them. Some of those people w…

Let's say it works and we're in the future where the manufacturing has returned to the US and you have US citizens building iPhones in large-scale factories and they are earning minimum wage. But why? Why would a US citizen want to be snapping mobile phones together for 6-12 hours every day? Do you have faith the US has an edge in manufactoring automation and won't need these semi-slaves? Do you have faith the nation…

> But why? Why would a US citizen want to be snapping mobile phones together for 6-12 hours every day?

I live in the US and don't support the tariffs but I'll give my best shot at answering.

The US is fairly poorly educated on the whole. In order for people to survive, there need to be an abundance of low skilled jobs. AI and automation is threatening to remove these jobs. What are the poorly educated going to do? Decades ago, someone could work in a factory for their whole life. Yes it was monotonous work but it would provide a living and allow someone to buy a house and life their life. I know because my grandparents came over from Europe after WWII and did this. They spoke poor English but could work in a factory and have a house and a car and live a good life. That's not the case anymore. With further automation and the pace of change increasing, it worries a lot of these types of people. If you have no education and your factory closes, there are not many other options for you.

The idea isn't to bring just one manufacturing plant for snapping phones together. It's to bring many, many plants back to provide these jobs for the poorly educated. So instead of just having one plant in your town, you have several. That means there will be competition for workers and wages will rise.

That's the idea anyway. Do I think it's possible to rollback to that time? No, I don't. But this is what people, mainly in rural areas, want to hear.

Part of the problem is that the US doesn't want to invest in education as a whole. Education would be a better long-term solution. Instead, this leads to the visa situation where the US needs to import a lot of technically skilled workers rather than developing them locally.

Re: American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis

#699

Post by noIdeaTheSecond »

While it seems obvious to many here that americans pay the tarrifs should we also conclude that given the drop in exports to the US (mentioned in the article), our european/german/indian economies are worse off i.e. we're losing money compared to how things were before. Does anybody have reliable figures on how much money are we losing?

Re: American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis

#700

Post by nobody9999 »

MonkeyClub wrote: post #678
thrance wrote: post #609

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're acting like Democrats are as deep in the cult of personality as Republicans are, yet outside of the most corporate liberal circles, Harris and Biden are heavily held in contempt by most of the Left.

I get what you mean, and agree that > Harris and Biden are heavily held in contempt by most of the Left. To be absolutely frank, I don't consider the Democrat party as "Left" in any (traditional?) sense at all, even though it may include Left and Left-leaning elements. (But then again I don't consider Starmer's Labour as Left either, and one could argue that Labour is more Left than the Democrats.)

>To be absolutely frank, I don't consider the Democrat party as "Left" in any (traditional?) sense at all, even though it may include Left and Left-leaning elements.

The Democratic (not "Democrat", a member of that party is a Democrat, but the party is the "Democratic" Party), and calling it the "Democrat" party has its roots in Republicans deliberately misnaming the party as one of many attempts to devalue and dismiss the Democratic Party. If that's your goal, then please continue. Otherwise, it's like calling an Englishman a Limey or a Pommie just because you've heard others do so.

Otherwise, you're quite correct, in that the US Democratic Party is mostly a center-right party, with it's most progressive/left-wing elements being firmly center-left.

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