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America is getting an AI gold rush instead of a factory boom

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Re: America is getting an AI gold rush instead of a factory boom

#691
post #371

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Musk apparently stood up a brand new raw to finished goods manufacturing for Starlink kits in 2-3 years in America/Texas. Non trivial, but doable in niches at least, per a factory engineer: "The main function of this site is to produce our standard Starlink kits. Right now, we’re producing 15,000 a day straight out of the factory. Raw plastic palettes come in, raw aluminum comes in and we make those into the Starlink…

So they form the plastic (already processed) using machines they've imported, and then put pre-populated PCBs with components made in China inside them? Hardly soup to nuts manufacturing. I've worked in a niche assembly line in North America where we populated some of the board components in-house, but they were etched in batches off-site.

The components aren't made in China

Re: America is getting an AI gold rush instead of a factory boom

#692

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That just tells me that the pay was bad for the job. If job A pays 80k and job B pays 100k, but job A is 40h and job B is 60h, then job B pays worse. They pay more but not better.

They wrote per hour rates though, it is just more difficult per hour

Same point. Much more difficult per hour but not appropriately more pay.

Re: America is getting an AI gold rush instead of a factory boom

#693
post #624

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The only crime rate data which is really reliable is the murder rate. This peaked in 1991 and has been generally stable (not steadily declining) since 1999, with a spike during the COVID-19 pandemic. Almost all murders do get reported and counted. https://www.consumershield.com/articles/murder-rate-by-year I don't trust the statistics for lesser crimes because so many of the victims never file a report. In many citie…

How do you feel about crime victimization surveys?

The BJS National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS) is interesting but I don't really trust it. A lot of the people who are most likely to be crime victims are also the least likely to answer government surveys. We have no way of knowing whether their statistical adjustments are accurate.

Re: America is getting an AI gold rush instead of a factory boom

#694

What many Americans don't realize is that China has already surpassed the United States in terms of development (developing country vs developed country sense of the word). Obviously both are 'developed' countries at this point but compare Chinese tier 1 cities vs American tier 1 cities. I would argue Chinese tier 1 cities are 10-20 years ahead of their American counterparts. source: visit any Chinese tier 1 city (Be…

I agree with your assessment on the high end of China's development and the lack of awareness of that from people in the US. But I think the story on the low end /lower class is more interesting and I think there is lack of awareness there too. Even within the US a lot of upper class people don't know what it's like for lower class people here. It's so easy to slip into homelessness because there aren't reasonable op…

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Re: America is getting an AI gold rush instead of a factory boom

#695

What many Americans don't realize is that China has already surpassed the United States in terms of development (developing country vs developed country sense of the word). Obviously both are 'developed' countries at this point but compare Chinese tier 1 cities vs American tier 1 cities. I would argue Chinese tier 1 cities are 10-20 years ahead of their American counterparts. source: visit any Chinese tier 1 city (Be…

Feels like a weird comparison. Granted, I've neither been in US nor China but from my Chinese/US friends that I mingled with while living in Tokyo, I feel like except for that flashy silly thing you cherish (cashless, drones) Chinese cities don't offer much compared to say Seoul or Tokyo. And even Seoul or Tokyo, depending on your metric, probably fails compared to some European cities (Dutch, Scandinavian, etc) Comp…

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Re: America is getting an AI gold rush instead of a factory boom

#696

Earlier quoted context omitted.

While I agree with the general sentiment on throwaway compute infra, the generated know-how with large scale experiments is not thrown away. I think a lot hinges on the scaling laws and whether you will hit the jackpot at a certain scale before everyone else. This is hard to guesstimate so someone has to do it in the spirit of empiricism. This might sound a lot like gambling or exploring depending on your sentiment.…

While scaling laws are only empirical curve fitting and extrapolation, none of them predict a discontinuous "jackpot effect."

AFAIK, certain abilities such as understanding arithmetic manifest at discrete scale points even though there is a continuous build up of potential. There is also the more remote possibility of a discrete scale that AI takes over its own training or at least starts to contribute substantially. A lot of real world leverage and arbitrage depends on such discrete surprises that may not be visible during the continuous incremental evolution. I think this principle holds computationally as much as it does biologically.

Re: America is getting an AI gold rush instead of a factory boom

#697

Earlier quoted context omitted.

While I do believe that China is surpassing the West on many points, I'd like to underline that a cashless society is not a good thing. It's a terrible, terrible idea. With no cash, the citizen passport and the GFW, the dictatorship has total control of society. It's not that there are no homeless, is that they are pushed to even worse conditions, out of sight. It's not that there is zero crime, it's that the crime i…

I think you over estimate the control and under estimate the need for flexibility for any society to operate. Let's just say even in China, identity can be a commodity. For example scammers are known to buy bank accounts by paying poor people in remote areas. The system needs flexibility otherwise a majority of people will run into problems all the time.

Yes, but flexibility that happens in those conditions is at the cost of tremendous effort and risk from the population, usually under the tutelage of bigger power structures. EG: scammers are usually part of some organisation that has the power to do that, and the guy giving his name on the bank account is basically disposable.

Also the fact the population is so huge make it hard even for such a powerful state to grasp it all.

But regular citizen flexibility when something is not state-approved in advance is very limited compared to ours. The state can limit where they can move because of the citizen passport, limit what they can buy (and say) because of wechat, limit what they can see and know because of the GFW, limit how much you can be anonymous because big cities have cameras everywhere, coupled with AI tracking.

In Europe, if my government does something I don't like, I can pay in cash, or cross a border and do it in a different country. I can complain on the internet and find like-minded people to organize, advice, help...

I want to go to a gay bar and pay without having a record of it? I can. I want to finance an art or political project that the government would not like? I can.

In fact, anywhere in the world there is cash, and I have some secure cash stash, I can pay if I lost my phone, or with no battery. I can pay if my bank account is blocked by the bank. If it's in the red. If there is an outage on their app. I can pay if I've been robbed of my wallet and phone. I can pay if there is no electricity or no internet. I can even pay if war is declared, if I'm under bombs. I can buy illegal drugs, illegal plant seeds, illegal literature, and illegal human services.

Remember when visa prevented us to send money to wikileak? It was not illegal to do so in my country, and it was my money, but they just said no. Yet I could pay in Bitcoin, that I could buy with cash.

No-cash societies make everything easier when everything goes according to plan. When you fit in the box, and the box is not broken. It's why it feels so great, because day-to-day life is mostly this, for most people.

But the lack of alternatives will make you feel helpless the day you really need it. Cashless has never been about convenience, it's about deleting those annoying grey areas, inch by inch. It's about control.

It's not a new thing for China. The first time I went there, I was 17 years old, and there was no internet. So the state appointed us a state guide, and she was following us everywhere during the whole time, to make sure "we were safe".

Now China doesn't need to do that anymore. They know everything you do at any moment except in the remote countryside. And they can push a button if they want to stop you.

Re: America is getting an AI gold rush instead of a factory boom

#698

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because intelligence is so much more than stochastically repeating stuff you've been trained on. It needs to learn new information, create novel connections, be creative.. We are utterly clueless as to how the brain works and how intelligence is created. We just took one cell, a neuron, made the simplest possible model of it, made some copies of it and you think it will suddenly spark into life by throwing GPUs at it…

>It needs to learn new information, create novel connections, be creative. LLM's can do all those things

Nope. Can't learn anything after the training data, only within the very narrow context window.

Any novel connections are through randomness, hence hallucinations instead of useful connections with background knowledge of involved systems or concepts.

About creativity, see my previous point. If I spit out words that go next to eachother, it won't be creativity. Creativity implies a goal, a purpose, or sometimes by chance, but utilising systematic thinking with understanding of the world.

Re: America is getting an AI gold rush instead of a factory boom

#699

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What are some examples that might blow my mind?

Public transportation is on a different level and all mayor cities are connected via a high speed rail network. The latter probably will never happen in the US.

This also describes nearly all of Europe

Re: America is getting an AI gold rush instead of a factory boom

#700

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Public transportation is on a different level and all mayor cities are connected via a high speed rail network. The latter probably will never happen in the US.

Considering the US has far fewer people far more spread out, with two major sets of mountain ranges just in the continental US probably not. It might be possible to have high speed rail on either coast with a single rail line following along a route near I-10 east=west. Even then it's a lot of nature to overcome.

This is a very lazy excuse that always comes up. Even Russia has a better train connection and it's even less dense.
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