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OpenAI's H1 2025: $4.3B in income, $13.5B in loss

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Re: OpenAI's H1 2025: $4.3B in income, $13.5B in loss

#691

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This right here. AI has no moat and none of these companies has a product that isn't easily replaced by another provider. Unless one of these companies really produces a leapfrog product or model that can't be replicated within a short timeframe I don't see how this changes. Most of OpenAI's users are freeloaders and if they turn off the free plan they're just going to divert those users to Google.

AI has no moat - yet here I'm been paying for ChatGPT Plus since the very start.

The real test of a moat is pricing power - would you still stick with OpenAI if they increased the Plus subscription to $40/mo?

Re: OpenAI's H1 2025: $4.3B in income, $13.5B in loss

#692
post #321
post #213

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This just doesn't match with the claims that people are using it as a replacement for Google. If your facts are out of date you're useless as a search engine

Which is why there's so much effort to build RAG workflows so that you can progressively add to the pool of information that the chatbot has access to, beyond what's baked into the underlying model(s).

RAG still needs model training, if the models were to go stale and the context drifts sufficiently, the RAG mechanism collapses.

Sure, those models are cheaper, but we also don’t really know how an ecosystem with a stale LLM and up to date RAG would behave once context drifts sufficiently, because no one is solving that problem at the moment.

Re: OpenAI's H1 2025: $4.3B in income, $13.5B in loss

#693
post #462

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Even I often tell I chatgeepeeteed the result, in the same fashion when I continue saying I googled the result, while actually I used Duck Duck Go. I could ask another LLM provider, but I have no idea how to communicate that properly to a non-technical folks. Heck, I don’t want to communicate that _properly_ to tech peers either. I don’t like these pedantic phrases ‘well, actually … that wasn’t Google, I used DDG for…

I recently used "an unreliable source that gives fast answers to questions" in a comment here. I think I will keep on using it.

Hey, that’s a nice one!

Re: OpenAI's H1 2025: $4.3B in income, $13.5B in loss

#694
post #609
post #512

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BAND-AID is another one

On the other hand, no one cares about Velcro or Tupperware

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rRi8LptvFZY

Video description, from the Velcro brand YouTube channel:

Our Velcro Brand Companies legal team decided to clear a few things up about using the VELCRO® trademark correctly – because they’re lawyers and that’s what they do. When you use “velcro” as a noun or a verb (e.g., velcro shoes), you diminish the importance of our brand and our lawyers lose their insert fastening sound. So please, do not say “velcro shoes” (or “velcro wallet” or “velcro gloves”) - we repeat “velcro” is not a noun or a verb. VELCRO® is our brand. #dontsayvelcro

Re: OpenAI's H1 2025: $4.3B in income, $13.5B in loss

#696

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"...all the best compute in 2025 will be lacklustre in 2027": How does the compute (I assume you mean on PCs) of 2025 compare with the compute of 2023? Oh wait, the computer I'm typing this on was manufactured in 2020...

Neato. How’s that 1999 era laptop? Because 25 year old trains are still running and 25 year old train track is still almost new. It’s not the same and you know it.

What's that 26 year difference have to do with it? The part I quoted was talking about 2027 vs. 2025, a two year difference.

Re: OpenAI's H1 2025: $4.3B in income, $13.5B in loss

#697

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Google Docs, Google Meet and Gmail provide a tiny fraction of Google's overall revenue. I don't understand your argument here. Like Chrome and Android, these products exist to establish foothold, precisely so that Microsoft or OpenAI can't take Google's lunch. My point is that brand recognition doesn't matter: if you can get equivalent functionality the easy way (a click of a button in Docs), you're not going to op…

> My point is that brand recognition doesn't matter: if you can get equivalent functionality the easy way (a click of a button in Docs), you're not going to open a separate app and copy-and-paste stuff. I couldn't disagree more with this statement. So far I've seen companies trying to shoehorn AI into all these existing apps and lots of us hate it. I want Docs to be Docs - even if I'm writing some sort of research pa…

You're absolutely right about ChatGPT's consumer mindshare, and I think a lot of people undervalue that.

Having Gemini in docs is useful, though. You can ask questions about the document without copying back and forth and context switching. Plus, it has access to the company's entire corpus, and so can understand company-specific concepts and acronyms.

Hell, I had a manager jokingly ask it for a status update meeting for another related project. According to someone actually involved with that project, it actually gave a good answer.

Re: OpenAI's H1 2025: $4.3B in income, $13.5B in loss

#698

Earlier quoted context omitted.

ChatGPT (and all the competitors) are trivially sticky products: I have a lot of ongoing conversations in there, that I pick up all the time. Add more long term memory stuff — a direction I am sure they will keep pushing — and all of the sudden there is a lot of personal data that you rely on it having, that make the product better and that most people will never care to replicate/transfer. Just being the product tha…

This. I am not sure why or how this is missed, but because you cannot easily port context ( maybe yet ), the stickiness increases with every conversation assuming your questions are not encyclopedia type questions that don't need follow up.

Do you actually curate your contexts? I did in the early days, but I just create new ones now.

Re: OpenAI's H1 2025: $4.3B in income, $13.5B in loss

#699

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They're not claiming that it's like the dot com boom because no one is actually making money. They're claiming that this is more like the dot com boom than the housing bubble, which I think is true . The dot com crash didn't cause Jane-on-the-street to lose her house while she worked a factory job, though the housing crisis did have those kinds of consumer-affecting outcomes.

It's nothing like the dot com bubble because that was based on speculative future value and zero present value. There is more present value in AI than at any point in software in the last 30 years.

The Internet bubble was also based on something real, but that didn't stop it from being a bubble.

For example, Cisco parked at over $500B in market cap during the boom. Its current market cap is around half that, at $250B.

Re: OpenAI's H1 2025: $4.3B in income, $13.5B in loss

#700

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That’s a good point. Pets.com raised $82 million from its IPO pre-revenue (bad) and Anthropic raised $500 million from Sam Bankman-Fried pre-revenue (good)

[flagged]

I’m admittedly not very good at math. You pointed out that Claude Code got to $500mm ARR in 3 months, but it kind of looks like it actually Anthropic over four years and many billions of dollars to make a product that generates significant revenue (I appreciate their modesty in not bragging about the net profit on that revenue there). I’d say that the users bragging about being able to cost Anthropoid multiple orders of magnitude in costs beyond what they pay them kind of makes the ARR less impressive but I’m not a fancy management scientist

But I’m bad at math and grasping things. If you simply pick a point in time to start counting things and decide what costs you want to count then the business looks very exciting. The math is much more reassuring and the overall climate looks much saner than the dot com bubble because we simply don’t know how much money is being lost, which is fine becau

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