Short anything that’s riding on AGI coming soon. This presentation has gotten rid of all my fears of my children growing up in a crazy winner take all AGI world.
Fear the imbeciles that capitalism empowers. The same ones that are going to implode the market on this nonsense while they push native people out to build private islands in Hawaii.
Thiel is a literal vampire(disambiguation: infuses young blood) and has already built drones in which bad AI targeting is a feature. They will kill us all and the planet.
Watching the livestream now, the improvement over their current models on the benchmarks is very small. I know they seemed to be trying to temper our expectations leading up to this, but this is much less improvement than I was expecting
GPT-5 is #1 on WebDev Arena with +75 pts over Gemini 2.5 Pro and +100 pts over Claude Opus 4: https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard
"+100 points" sounds like a lot until you do the ELO math and see that means 1 out of 3 people still preferred Claud Opus 4's response. Remember 1 out of 2 would place the models dead even.
I'm not really convinced, the benchmark blunder was really strange but the demos were quite underwhelming, and it appears this was reflected by a huge market correction in the betting markets as to who will have the best AI by end of the year. What excites me now is that Gemini 3.0 or some answer from Google is coming soon and that will be the one I will actually end up using. It seems like the last mover in the LLM…
Polymarket betters are not impressed. Based upon the market odds, OpenAI had a 35% chance to have the best model (at year end), but those odds have dropped to 18% today.
(I'm mostly making this comment to document what happened for the history books.)
I'm not really convinced, the benchmark blunder was really strange but the demos were quite underwhelming, and it appears this was reflected by a huge market correction in the betting markets as to who will have the best AI by end of the year. What excites me now is that Gemini 3.0 or some answer from Google is coming soon and that will be the one I will actually end up using. It seems like the last mover in the LLM…
Which betting markets were you referring to and where can they be viewed?
Some people have hypothesized that GPT-5 is actually about cost reduction and internal optimization for OpenAI, since there doesn't seem to be much of a leap forward, but another element that they seem to have focused on that'll probably make a huge difference to "normal" (non-tech) users is making precise and specifically worded prompts less necessary. They've mentioned improvements in that aspects a few times now,…
I just don’t know that you’d name that 5. The jump from 3 to 4 was huge. There was an expectation for similar outputs here. Making it cheaper is a good goal - certainly - but they needed a huge marketing win too.
yeah i think they shot themselves in the foot a bit here by creating the o series. the truth is that GPT-5 _is_ a huge step forward, for the "GPT-x" models. The current GPT-x model was basically still 4o, with 4.1 available in some capacity. GPT-5 vs GPT-4o looks like a massive upgrade.
But it's only an incremental improvement over the existing o line. So people feel like the improvement from the current OpenAI SoTA isn't there to justify a whole bump. They probably should have just called o1 GPT-5 last year.
I'm not really convinced, the benchmark blunder was really strange but the demos were quite underwhelming, and it appears this was reflected by a huge market correction in the betting markets as to who will have the best AI by end of the year. What excites me now is that Gemini 3.0 or some answer from Google is coming soon and that will be the one I will actually end up using. It seems like the last mover in the LLM…
Which betting markets were you referring to and where can they be viewed?
It is frequently suggested that once one of the AI companies reaches an AGI threshold, they will take off ahead of the rest. It's interesting to note that at least so far, the trend has been the opposite: as time goes on and the models get better, the performance of the different company's gets clustered closer together. Right now GPT-5, Claude Opus, Grok 4, Gemini 2.5 Pro all seem quite good across the board (ie the…
The idea is that AGI will be able to self improve at an exponential rate. This is where the idea of take off comes from. That self improvement part isn’t happening today.
It is frequently suggested that once one of the AI companies reaches an AGI threshold, they will take off ahead of the rest. It's interesting to note that at least so far, the trend has been the opposite: as time goes on and the models get better, the performance of the different company's gets clustered closer together. Right now GPT-5, Claude Opus, Grok 4, Gemini 2.5 Pro all seem quite good across the board (ie the…
I kind of (naively?) hope that with robust competition, it will be like airlines or movie companies, where there are lots of players.
It is frequently suggested that once one of the AI companies reaches an AGI threshold, they will take off ahead of the rest. It's interesting to note that at least so far, the trend has been the opposite: as time goes on and the models get better, the performance of the different company's gets clustered closer together. Right now GPT-5, Claude Opus, Grok 4, Gemini 2.5 Pro all seem quite good across the board (ie the…
My personal belief is that we are moving past the hype and kind of starting to realize the true shape of what (LLM) AI can offer us, which is a darned lot, but still, it only works well when fed the right input and handled right - which is still a learning process ongoing on both sides - AI companies need to learn to train these things into user interaction loops that match people's workflows, and people need to lear…
You have seemed to pinpoint where I believe a lot of opportunity lies during this era (however long it lasts.) Custom integration of these models into specific workflows of existing companies can make a significant difference in what’s possible for said companies, the smaller more local ones especially. If people can leverage even a small percentage of what these models are capable of, that may be all they need for their use case. In that case, they wouldn’t even need to learn to use these tools, but (much like electricity) they will just plug in or flip on the switch and be in business (no pun intended.)