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The ‘white-collar bloodbath’ is all part of the AI hype machine

cnn.com

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Re: The ‘white-collar bloodbath’ is all part of the AI hype machine

#691

Post by bojan »

pydry wrote: post #661
bootsmann wrote: post #634

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

Trump didnt kick off the layoffs. It was the war with Russia that drove the fed to raise interest rates in 2022 - a measure that was intended to curb inflation triggered by spikes in the prices of economic inputs (gas, oil, fertilizer, etc.). The tech layoffs started later that year. Widespread job cuts are an intended effect of raising interest rates - more unemployed = less spending = keeps a lid on inflation. AI i…

"War with Russia" sounds like someone willingly started that war, and Russia was the target.

Of course, nothing is further from the truth. "Russian invasion of Ukraine" is what should be written there.

Re: The ‘white-collar bloodbath’ is all part of the AI hype machine

#692

Post by le-mark »

GoblinSlayer wrote: post #628
saubeidl wrote: post #617

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Except Labor in Tech is unique in that it has zero class consciousness and often actively roots for their exploiters. If we were to unionize, we could force this machine to a halt and shift the balance of power back in our favor. But we don't, because many of us have been brainwashed to believe we're on the same side as the ones trying to squeeze us.

>If we were to unionize Last time it was tried the union coerced everyone to root for their exploiters. People that unionize aren't magically different.

What “last time” are you referring to specifically?

Re: The ‘white-collar bloodbath’ is all part of the AI hype machine

#693

Post by hansmayer »

tdeck wrote: post #416

Maybe someone can help me wrap my head around this in a different way, because here's how I see it. If these tools are really making people so productive, shouldn't it be painfully obvious in companies' output? For example, if these AI coding tools were an amazing productivity boost in the end, we'd expect to see software companies shipping features and fixes faster than ever before. There would be a huge burst in in…

Well, it sort of evens out. You see the developers are pushed to use the AI to generate a lot of LoC-Slop, but then they have to fix all the bugs, security issues and hallucinated packages that were thrown in by the magic-machines. But at least some deluded MBA can BS about being "AI-first".

Re: The ‘white-collar bloodbath’ is all part of the AI hype machine

#694

Post by leoedin »

tim333 wrote: post #668
leoedin wrote: post #568

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Clearly you don’t have children!

I was thinking it's a function of the social setting. Single bloke 1h/week. Couple 5h/week. With kids continuous. Or some such.

I imagine standards have also shifted. It just wouldn’t have been possible to wash a child’s clothes after one wear before the invention of the washing machine. People also had far less clothing that they could have even needed to wash.

Re: The ‘white-collar bloodbath’ is all part of the AI hype machine

#695

Post by acrooks »

tdeck wrote: post #416

Maybe someone can help me wrap my head around this in a different way, because here's how I see it. If these tools are really making people so productive, shouldn't it be painfully obvious in companies' output? For example, if these AI coding tools were an amazing productivity boost in the end, we'd expect to see software companies shipping features and fixes faster than ever before. There would be a huge burst in in…

I wonder if some of this output will take a while to be visible en masse.

For example, I founded a SaaS company late last year which has been growing very quickly. We are track to pass $1M ARR before the company's first birthday. We are fully bootstrapped, 100% founder owned. There are 2 of us. And we feel confident we could keep up this pace of growth for quite a while without hiring or taking capital. (Of course, there's an argument that we could accelerate our growth rate with more cash/human resources)

Early in my career, at different companies, we often solved capacity problems by hiring. But my cofounder and I have been able to turn to AI to help with this, and we keep finding double digit percentage productivity improvements without investing much upfront time. I don't think this would have been remotely possible when I started my career, or even just a few years ago when AI hadn't really started to take off.

So my theory as to why it doesn't appear to be "painfully obvious": you've never heard of most of the businesses getting the most value out of this technology, because they're all too small. On average, the companies we know about are large. It's very difficult for them to reinvent themselves on a dime to adapt to new technology - it takes a long time to steer a ship - so it will take a while. But small businesses like mine can change how we work today and realize the results tomorrow.

Re: The ‘white-collar bloodbath’ is all part of the AI hype machine

#696

Post by andyferris »

bojan wrote: post #691
pydry wrote: post #661

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Trump didnt kick off the layoffs. It was the war with Russia that drove the fed to raise interest rates in 2022 - a measure that was intended to curb inflation triggered by spikes in the prices of economic inputs (gas, oil, fertilizer, etc.). The tech layoffs started later that year. Widespread job cuts are an intended effect of raising interest rates - more unemployed = less spending = keeps a lid on inflation. AI i…

"War with Russia" sounds like someone willingly started that war, and Russia was the target. Of course, nothing is further from the truth. "Russian invasion of Ukraine" is what should be written there.

Fully agreed, but I suspect that was written that way because the Fed was rather more worried about the fact Russia was at war and under western sanctions, than that Ukraine was busy defending itself.

Perhaps "Russia's war" would have been a better phrasing that captures both spirits (but it's not a phrase you hear said much).

Re: The ‘white-collar bloodbath’ is all part of the AI hype machine

#697

Post by tim333 »

hansmayer wrote: post #683
tim333 wrote: post #663

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I foresee programers replaced by AI and the people who programed becoming pointy haired bosses to the AI.

Ha-ha, this is very funny :) Say, have you ever tried seriously using the AI-tools for programming? Because if you do, and still believe this, I may have a bridge/Eiffel Tower/railroad to sell you.

I tried and they weren't that good. I'm gazing into the future a little.

Re: The ‘white-collar bloodbath’ is all part of the AI hype machine

#698

Post by tim333 »

dgfitz wrote: post #679
tim333 wrote: post #663

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I foresee programers replaced by AI and the people who programed becoming pointy haired bosses to the AI.

I for see that when people only employ AI for programming, it quickly hits the point where they train on their own (usually wrong) code and it spirals into an implosion. When kids stop learning to code for real, who writes GCC v38? This whole LLM is just the next bitcoin/nft. People had a lot of video cards and wanted to find a new use for them. In my small brain it’s so obvious.

LLMs maybe but there will be other algorithms.

Re: The ‘white-collar bloodbath’ is all part of the AI hype machine

#699

Post by andyferris »

frontfor wrote: post #686
pydry wrote: post #661

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Trump didnt kick off the layoffs. It was the war with Russia that drove the fed to raise interest rates in 2022 - a measure that was intended to curb inflation triggered by spikes in the prices of economic inputs (gas, oil, fertilizer, etc.). The tech layoffs started later that year. Widespread job cuts are an intended effect of raising interest rates - more unemployed = less spending = keeps a lid on inflation. AI i…

I don’t believe the war specifically drove the Fed to raise interest rates. Inflation and asset prices have risen sharply a year prior to the war.

There was a specific and particular expectation (and even patience) for inflation to drop naturally as the supply chains again reached equilibrium after Covid.

Russia's invasion of Ukraine however caused a whole bunch of economic inputs like energy and fertilizer to spike, and central banks world wide didn't want economies to "get used to" constant high inflation rates, causing a perpetual problem.

Re: The ‘white-collar bloodbath’ is all part of the AI hype machine

#700

Post by xorcist »

simonsarris wrote: post #465

I think the real white collar bloodbath is that the end of ZIRP was the end of infinite software job postings, and the start of layoffs. I think its easy to now point to AI, but it seems like a canard for the huge thing that already happened. just look at this: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1JmOr In terms of magnitude the effect of this is just enormous and still being felt, and never recovered to pre-2020 lev…

> because he simply thought he could run a lot leaner

Because he suddenly had to pay interest on that gigantic loan he (and his business associates) took to buy Twitter.

It may not be the only reason for everything that happened, but it sure is simple and has some very good explanatory powers.

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