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TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.

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Re: TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.

#691

Post by fatbird »

ein0p wrote: post #418
fatbird wrote: post #279

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Zelensky predictably plays the tough guy by telling him to pound sand. Zelensky flew to Washington to sign the agreement, and fully expected to--they waited an hour after the blown up press conference before being told to get out. Diplomatically, Zelensky wasn't even badly behaved in the press conference. Vance and Trump kept escalating the discussion. If there was a play, it was one constructed by Trump to give hims…

Watch _the whole_ press conference, the entire 53 minutes, not the carefully selected morsels that CNN prepared for you in order to mislead. Zelensky failed to read the room, and 23 minutes or so into the conversation he started to self-immolate, something Trump and Vance gladly helped him with.

"Reading the room" meant "prostrating himself and kissing the ring", which might have been worth it if it meant actual guarantees, but it didn't. You said you don't believe there are huge deposits to be exploited, so what then is the value of a US "soft" interest in Ukraine's security? Especially when Trump could make the same deal with Putin so that he wins either way.

No one in that room recognized more than Zelensky that worthlessness of American promises of security. What value then to humiliate oneself? Ukraine gave up its nuclear arsenal on American promises of security, and look where that got them.

On the contrary, the display in the press conference did do some good for Ukraine. There was an emergency summit in London that weekend where the heads of Europe agreed to step up their support for Ukraine, increase defence spending, and to work towards total independence from the US in 10 years. NATO is now a vestigial treaty that's a foreign policy option rather than a commitment. Who's responsible now for pushing us closer to WW3?

Re: TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.

#692

Post by luthus001 »

WillPostForFood wrote: post #264
branko_d wrote: post #217

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This assumes USA was taken advantage of by globalization, which is not actually the case - USA benefitted disproportionally from it. USA's GDP growth is substantially based on the consumers (~70% compared to ~50% in the EU and other comparable countries), and that wouldn't have been possible if they could only consume what was produced in the USA. But there were losers, mainly in manufacturing, and USA didn't assist…

Globalization for the US was trading industrialization for financialization. Yay for the paper GDP gains, but most citizens got left behind - though they can by cheap imported cloths with their shrinking paychecks. Can't build chips, can't make ships, can't make furniture, can't make clothes, can't make enough weapons to supply Ukraine, let alone for any real war. Globalization hollowed the capacity of the country.

The global reserve currency does that to you. With countries around the world demanding and hoarding dollars for their own trading needs, what domestic industries can compete with the lucrative business of printing pieces of paper in exchange for real, imported goods? That the ultrarich monopolized the spoils of this business, does not make it bad business

Re: TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.

#693

Post by matthewdgreen »

vkou wrote: post #679
UltraSane wrote: post #484

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This seems like one of Putin's motivations for invading Ukraine. He couldn't stand having a prosperous Ukraine aligned with the EU and the US that could foment discontent inside Russia.

Ukraine was the poorest country in Europe, and by most metrics, worse off than Russia before the war. Sure, you can write all sorts of alt-history fanfiction about how great it would be if 2014 didn't happen, but that's just one of many possible futures.

Leaving aside the war, Ukraine has many of the positive resources of the Baltics (just more so.) There is every reason to believe that an EU-aligned (or member) Ukraine would be an economic success story.

Re: TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.

#694

Post by mtrovo »

bloppe wrote: post #648
VWWHFSfQ wrote: post #619

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I think it's far more likely the US will "sell" Taiwan to China for some deal that benefits the US financially or politicially. This will happen after USA extricates all the meaningful tech and re-homes the institutions and workforce required to maintain that tech to the USA mainland. Still probably a decade or two away, but likely.

Why would China will wait for a decade? They've been very clear about wanting to invade by 2027

If they're sure they can invade whenever they want, does it make sense to do it right now? What would they gain by sending all the good tech and researchers straight to the US? The longer they wait, the more advanced the tech they eventually steal might be. It's the golden goose story, but with a strategic rationale of when to kill the goose.

Re: TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.

#695

Post by matthewdgreen »

bloppe wrote: post #646
billychuck21st wrote: post #604

Those thinking China vs Taiwan is like Russia vs Ukraine is greatly mistaken. The Chinese army after decades of build up is way stronger than Russia's, the enire PLA navy and airforce are built for a war with Taiwan. Ukraine still has Europe, Taiwan only has Japan, and has no border to any other countries. If the US wants to intervene, it must throw in its full weight, like the entire pacific fleet and some more, oth…

Far more likely the US will "sell" Taiwan to China for some deal that greatly harms the US.

Maybe we'll get a steakhouse.

Re: TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.

#696

Post by justin66 »

throwawayffffas wrote: post #681
tnt128 wrote: post #314

The idea that the US protects Taiwan from a possible Chinese invasion over chips is one of those things that sounds believable but really isn't going to happen. From China’s perspective, the cost of war is much higher than the cost of developing these chips themselves. In the worst-case scenario, they would be 2-3 years behind the cutting edge, which is not mission-critical. Most electronics (civilian or military) do…

> 1. China takes Taiwan quickly. That is extremely unlikely to happen, Taipei has invested a lot in defense, and until lately the public in Taiwan at least says they would fight[1]. It's extremely unlikely that they will fold so fast that the US won't have to get involved or to choose to not get involved. > 3. Taiwan successfully defends itself, repels the Chinese invasion, and possibly even takes back some territory…

Speaking of blockade, the United States can (before or after hostilities between Taiwan and China begin) keep ships carrying oil, food, and animal feed from reaching China.

Re: TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.

#697

Post by lupusreal »

knowitnone wrote: post #662
legitster wrote: post #643

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's worse than a rebellious province. It's a more successful rebellious province. For China, they hold up all of these technical accomplishments and quality of life improvements they have made under their one party system. But now over here is Taiwan that never bought in and is doing even better! It undercuts all of their messaging. If the communist party could wave a magic wand, they would take Taiwan and not just…

the US made China it's manufacturing arm and now the US wants to take that back? Kind of late. If China invades Taiwan, the US is to blame. Talk about putting all your eggs in one basket.

> If China invades Taiwan, the US is to blame

That's completely deranged. The CCP has intended to take Taiwan from day one. Before they even managed to drive the ROC out of mainland China they intended to take all of China, including Taiwan, and their failure to take Taiwan has never been something they were satisfied with.

Manufacturing has nothing to do with it. America only has anything to do with it insofar as they have helped Taiwan resist the CCP so far.

Re: TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.

#698

Post by shkkmo »

krainboltgreene wrote: post #537
jabiko wrote: post #532

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> China is a democracy Regardless of which democracy index ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democracy_indices ) you consult, they all disagree with that statement.

V-dem, Bertelsmann, and EDI literally has scores for China. You'll notice places like Brunei, an absolute monarchy, isn't on the list. Because China is a democracy and Brunei is not a democracy.

Brunei isn't on the Bertelsmann because it is small (The EDI explicitly does not try to asses whether a country is democratic or not, but just allows relative comparisons. It also doesn't include smaller countries but doesn't have as clear of a cutoff.

If you are going to use inclusion on one or more of these lists as an argument, you'll have actually cite where those lists use status as a democracy as a criteria for inclusion and how that is assessed.

Re: TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.

#699

Post by pyrale »

0xDEAFBEAD wrote: post #365
cheema33 wrote: post #333

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Current administration is fast tracking nuclear prolifiacian. This is correct. Gone are the days when countries could count on the US to provide some protection against illegal invasions. All nations without nukes have to be considering them seriously now. Sure, they signed the NPT. But agreements no longer mean what they used to. Russia violates most of the agreements it signs. US already trashed the Budapest memo…

>US already trashed the Budapest memorandum that it signed in 1996. We were supposed to provide security to Ukraine in exchange for them giving up nukes. This is a common misconception. If you read the memorandum (it's rather short) you'll see it isn't true. We only promised to seek UN Security Council action. We went far beyond that. https://treaties.un.org/doc/Publication/UNTS/Volume%203007/P...

Whether or not it's a misconception, and whether or not the US are faithful to the treaty while weaseling out of helping Ukraine, is irrelevant.

A treaty where the guarantor is known to give sketchy legal interpretations about why them backstabing you is actually faithful to the treaty they signed is barely more useful than a treaty where the guarantor won't honor their word.

The ripple effect is already there: many NATO country are now wondering whether the alliance is worth the paper it’s written on.

Re: TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.

#700

Post by siliconc0w »

tnt128 wrote: post #314

The idea that the US protects Taiwan from a possible Chinese invasion over chips is one of those things that sounds believable but really isn't going to happen. From China’s perspective, the cost of war is much higher than the cost of developing these chips themselves. In the worst-case scenario, they would be 2-3 years behind the cutting edge, which is not mission-critical. Most electronics (civilian or military) do…

The official strategy is for Taiwan to turtle in the mountains and wait for coalition aid. There is a shitload of bases and weaponary in the area to repel a china invasion and Korea and Japan both know they're next if they let Taiwan fall.

However I think Trump has basically given up the game and made it pretty plain that he has no desire to help Ukraine or Taiwan and will be happy to sign 'deals' giving them up, even if those deals basically give the autocrats everything they want - just enough vague 'rare earth'-style bullshit that he feels he can claim them as victories in the press.

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