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Grok3 Launch [video]

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Re: Grok3 Launch [video]

#691

Controversial opinion but I think the AI game studio idea is a very good one. Not because I think they will make any money off the games, but dogfooding will lead to so much more improvement than relying on feedback from external customers.

What is dogfooding?

Re: Grok3 Launch [video]

#692
post #668

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DeepSeek wouldn't be able to train R1 without their ~600B parameters base model, so you should consider the cost of that model when you compare with Grok. In any case, Elon won't win this race cause the best talent will not work for him. He used to have good reputation and a lot of money, which is a deadly combination. Now he only has the latter -- not enough when leading AI people can make 7 figures in other compani…

Actually, the 5 million figure is for the compute cost for the base 600B parameter model. Training R1 was just 8000 steps of reinforcement learning, so I expect that the vast, vast majority of the training cost is already included in the pretraining stage.

Re: Grok3 Launch [video]

#693
post #668

[flagged]

DeepSeek wouldn't be able to train R1 without their ~600B parameters base model, so you should consider the cost of that model when you compare with Grok. In any case, Elon won't win this race cause the best talent will not work for him. He used to have good reputation and a lot of money, which is a deadly combination. Now he only has the latter -- not enough when leading AI people can make 7 figures in other compani…

[deleted]

Re: Grok3 Launch [video]

#694
post #668

[flagged]

I used to think the same way wrt Nvidia stock when it tanked - compute is clearly diminishing returns. Tech companies subsequently announced capex equal to or greater than expected in compute. I smacked myself on the forehead when I realized - I'd been think too much like an engineer. Tech CEOs badly want to believe they have an edge over every upstart from San Francisco to Shanghai. Unlimited spending on compute gives them that reassurance. In fact, the more threatened they feel, the more they spend to cling onto it.

Kids have security blankets. Tech CEOs have security compute clusters.

Re: Grok3 Launch [video]

#695

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

Ah yes, replacing the ‘elites’ with a single person, much less scary. And, to be clear, the ‘elites’ are still in power (because, in America, power tends to follow money). The only thing that seems to be happening is the rapid destruction of any system Elon deems ‘bad.’ We aren’t better off at the whims of this robber baron, and I don’t understand how you can think that.

How is he a robber baron? You don't need to buy any of his products.

Re: Grok3 Launch [video]

#696

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not sure how LLMs/AI couldn't consolidate power. By design, it will move power from the individual to those running the AI systems.

Because the difference between a model that costs 10 million to train and a model that costs 10 billion to train is 6 months. Deepseek R1 is something that you can run in a garage on hardware that the average software engineer can buy with a months salary and when it came out last month it was better than _every_ other model.

No, it was not. It was not better than o1, nor o1-pro. Yes, it was _cheaper_ than those models, and superior in price/performance if the performance was acceptable. But in terms of raw performance it was behind them.

Re: Grok3 Launch [video]

#697
post #668

[flagged]

You seem to be assuming that the full cost of the cluster is recouped by Grok 3. The real value will be in grok 5, 6, etc…

xAI also announced a few days ago they are starting an internal video game studio. How long before AI companies take over Hollywood and Disney? The value available to be captured is massive.

The cluster they’ve built is impressive compared to the competition, and grok 3 barely scratches what it’s capable of.

Re: Grok3 Launch [video]

#698
post #668

[flagged]

I used to think the same way wrt Nvidia stock when it tanked - compute is clearly diminishing returns. Tech companies subsequently announced capex equal to or greater than expected in compute. I smacked myself on the forehead when I realized - I'd been think too much like an engineer. Tech CEOs badly want to believe they have an edge over every upstart from San Francisco to Shanghai. Unlimited spending on compute giv…

This is the danger of being informed only by sensational headlines. Nvidia's stock has fully recovered and is again near an all-time high. You seem to be generalizing about "Tech CEOs" — but in this case, GPUs are the advantage. They are necessary to achieve the outcome, and yet they are severely supply constrained. It's smart to overpay now.

Apple did something similar with NAND storage for the iPad mini. They took a bet that could have been wrong. It was not wrong. Competitors had a hard time because of it.

Re: Grok3 Launch [video]

#699

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Elon's unchecked power at building a model? Or at politics? I always worry whenever I see people telling me how to feel - rage in this case. We are in a political system that is oriented more around getting people to feel rage and hatred as opposed to consensus and deliberation. Elon is the face of that, but it's a much longer and larger problem. Throw in the complete dismisal that anyone not scared of this is ignora…

Has it occurred to you that the people who feel rage fundamentally understand the situation, and you may be undereducated in this area? What do you think are the root causes of that “senseless partisan drive”? I’d suggest starting with Rick Perlman’s book “Nixonland” if you’re interested.

Rage is the fuel of the internet, but it’s fundamentally useless when it comes to seeking truth. Social media platforms are engineered to maximize engagement, and the most engaging emotion is anger. This isn’t accidental—outrage drives clicks, shares, and ad revenue. The internet has long been called a “hate machine,” and there’s plenty of truth to that.

This creates an environment where misinformation and emotional appeals spread faster than facts. When discussing complex, non-trivial topics, logic and reason are the only tools that can cut through the noise. But in a system designed to reward outrage, those tools are often drowned out.

I highly recommend Sam Vaknin's talk about Social Media toxicity.

Sources: Outrage is the most profitable emotion https://www.cityam.com/outrage-most-profitable-emotion-so-ad...

Sam Vaknin: The TRUE Toxicity of Social Media Revealed - Interview by Richard Grannon https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o58mFU004hg

Re: Grok3 Launch [video]

#700
post #668

[flagged]

> There is no monetisation potential.

DOGE uses only X links, and I am sure Grok will be the next gov contract. After all he has all the data on everybody down to your IRS tax returns.

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