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Nvidia’s $589B DeepSeek rout

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Re: Nvidia’s $589B DeepSeek rout

#691

Post by goatlover »

sdenton4 wrote: post #680
atrus wrote: post #595

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Honestly, you'd be shocked at how much gaming you can get done on the integrated gpus that are just shoved in these days. Sure, you won't be playing the most graphically demanding things, but think of platforms like the Switch, or games like Stardew. You can easily go without a dedicated GPU and still have a plethora of games. And as for AI, there's probably so much room for improvement on the software side that it w…

Just look at how much insects get done with just a few neurons to run together...

Those neurons aren't language models though. They're not encoding petabytes of human knowledge.

Re: Nvidia’s $589B DeepSeek rout

#693

Post by asadotzler »

01100011 wrote: post #683
dylan604 wrote: post #596

Earlier quoted context omitted.

because that's what history shows us. back in the 90s, MPEG-1/2 took dedicated hardware expansion cards to handle the encoding because software was just too damn slow. eventually, CPUs caught up, and dedicated instructions were added to the CPU to make software encoding multiple times faster than real-time. Then, H.264 came along and CPUs were slow for encoding again. Special instructions were added to the CPU again,…

> Can you guess what the next step will be? He fixes the cable? But seriously, video encoding isn't AI. Video encoding is a well understood problem. We can't even make "AI" that doesn't hallucinate yet. We're not sure what architectures will be needed for progress in AI. I get that we're all drunk on our analogies in the vacuum of our ignorance but we need to have a bit of humility and awareness of where we're at.

Including considering that it can't be made much better, that the hallucinations are a fundamental trait that cannot be eliminated, that this will all come tumbling down in a year or three. You seem to want to consider every possible positive future if we just work harder or longer at it, while ignoring the most likely outcomes that are nearer term and far from positive.

Re: Nvidia’s $589B DeepSeek rout

#694

Post by asadotzler »

dylan604 wrote: post #687
01100011 wrote: post #683

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Can you guess what the next step will be? He fixes the cable? But seriously, video encoding isn't AI. Video encoding is a well understood problem. We can't even make "AI" that doesn't hallucinate yet. We're not sure what architectures will be needed for progress in AI. I get that we're all drunk on our analogies in the vacuum of our ignorance but we need to have a bit of humility and awareness of where we're at.

Conversely, can you name one computing thing that used to be hard when it was first created that is still hard in the same way today after generations of software/hardware improvements?

VR is as dead this time around as it was in the mid-2000s and the mid-1990s and the mid-1980s, each of the times I've used it it was just as awful as before with nausea, eyestrain, headaches, neck and face fatigue, it's truly a f**ed space and it's failed over and over, this time with Apple and Facebook spending tens of billions on it. VR is a perfect reply to your question here.

Re: Nvidia’s $589B DeepSeek rout

#695

Post by zeven7 »

plaidfuji wrote: post #640

Here’s a take I haven’t seen yet: If training and inference just got 40x more efficient, but OpenAI and co. still have the same compute resources, once they’ve baked in all the DeepSeek improvements, we’re about to find out very quickly whether 40x the compute delivers 40x the performance / output quality, or if output quality has ceased to be compute-bound.

I've missed the stories on this until now. Is it known (and is there an ELI5) how they were able to do it so much more efficiently?

Re: Nvidia’s $589B DeepSeek rout

#696

Post by Too »

Jeez chill... it’s just back to where it was 4 months ago and even after the drop it is still up 100% compared to this time last year! And it’s all fake inflated money.

This unprecedented growth simply couldn’t continue forever.

Re: Nvidia’s $589B DeepSeek rout

#697

Post by optimiz3 »

snake_doc wrote: post #669
eigenvalue wrote: post #567

90% of the comments in this thread make it clear that knowing about technology does not in any way qualify someone to think correctly about markets and equity valuations.

The other way is certainly also true. Your short piece is rational, but lacks insight into the inference and training dynamics of ML adoption unconstrained. The rate of ML progress is spectacularly compute constrained today. Every step in today’s scaling program is setup to de-risked the next scale up, because the opportunity cost of compute is so high. If the opportunity cost of compute is not so high, you can skip…

Everyone can say things that sound smart. When it comes to markets the only thing that matters is if your portfolio was green or red.

Re: Nvidia’s $589B DeepSeek rout

#698

Post by riffraff »

zeven7 wrote: post #695
plaidfuji wrote: post #640

Here’s a take I haven’t seen yet: If training and inference just got 40x more efficient, but OpenAI and co. still have the same compute resources, once they’ve baked in all the DeepSeek improvements, we’re about to find out very quickly whether 40x the compute delivers 40x the performance / output quality, or if output quality has ceased to be compute-bound.

I've missed the stories on this until now. Is it known (and is there an ELI5) how they were able to do it so much more efficiently?

IIUC they released a paper, it's partially algorithmic improvements partially good old low level optimization.

Re: Nvidia’s $589B DeepSeek rout

#699

Post by medion »

ozten wrote: post #431

NVIDIA sells shovels to the gold rush. One miner (Liang Wenfeng), who has previously purchased at least 10,000 A100 shovels... has a "side project" where they figured out how to dig really well with a shovel and shared their secrets. The gold rush, wether real or a bubble is still there! NVIDA will still sell every shovel they can manufacture, as soon as it is available in inventory. Fortune 100 companies will still…

Can anyone comment on why Wenfeng shared his secret sauce? Other than publicity, there only seems to be downsides for him, as now everyone else with larger compute will just copy and improve?

Re: Nvidia’s $589B DeepSeek rout

#700

Post by goatlover »

thw09j9m wrote: post #650

I think the big picture that many people are missing here is the motivation that all these AI/tech companies have for buying up so many GPU's in the first place: achieving AGI/ASI. And while some still try to portray a dedication/duty to AI Alignment, I think most have either secretly or more publicly moved away from it in the race to become the first to achieve it. And I think, given that inference time compute is s…

Not that I believe it's likely to happen, but it seems incredibly fucking dangerous for there to be an ASI race with one winner. To the extent these companies believe it's possible, what are they hoping will be the outcome for humanity?

That they get to be the trillionaires with an untouchable moat? Wouldn't this be like creating a Kwisitz Hadarach thinking you can control it, to borrow a Dune reference?

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