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Two undersea cables in Baltic Sea disrupted

cnn.com

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Re: Two undersea cables in Baltic Sea disrupted

#691

Post by maayank »

sho wrote: post #418
rrr_oh_man wrote: post #412

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The Nord Stream sabotage has opened Pandora's box almost exactly how it was predicted in Cryptonomicon. Can you elaborate?

“This is the new balance of power, Randy." "You can't seriously be telling me that governments are threatening to--" "The Chinese have already done it. They cut an older cable--first-generation optical fiber--joining Korea to Nippon. The cable wasn't that important--they only did it as a warning shot. And what's the rule of thumb about governments cutting submarine cables?" "That it's like nuclear war," Randy says. "…

Wow, good catch. Forgot about this part!

Re: Two undersea cables in Baltic Sea disrupted

#692

Post by oneshtein »

aa-jv wrote: post #676
oneshtein wrote: post #585

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Delivery of Russian gas was stopped by Russia in violation of contract. European gas companies demands $20 billion in compensation. Nobody had incentive to blow up empty pipes except Russia. Of course, Russians used false flag as usual, to blame Ukraine, but Ukraine doesn't hide successful attacks on Russian infrastructure, because Ukraine has legal right to defend itself.

>Nobody had incentive to blow up empty pipes except Russia. Nonsense. Biden had a great deal of incentive to destroy that pipeline.

LOL Biden has no balls to do that.

Re: Two undersea cables in Baltic Sea disrupted

#693

Post by amanaplanacanal »

pelasaco wrote: post #683
FrustratedMonky wrote: post #593

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah. Lot of Russian Apologist. Russia invades Ukraine -> It is Biden's fault, he ordered it. Russia actually invading and killing -> It was NATO's fault for discussing admission. Like, Russia is actually 'doing the bad things'.

> Like, Russia is actually 'doing the bad things'. Yes, Russia is doing bad things.. But do we really need or want a third World War because of it? It’s not Ukraine’s fault that Russia invaded, but Ukraine bears responsibility for having been so corrupt over the past 20 years and for being irresponsible given its proximity to Russia. We still don’t know how much of the aid sent to Ukraine is being lost to corruption.…

You should definitely stay home then. Other people are doing the fighting for you.

Re: Two undersea cables in Baltic Sea disrupted

#694

Post by scrps »

numeric83 wrote: post #628
nbman102 wrote: post #619

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If this wasn't an accident, given the recent Biden escalation that allows ATACMS strikes in Kursk in could mean two things: 1) Russia hastily retaliated, which is out of character. You can accuse Russia of many things, but not of retaliating instantly (against the West, in Ukraine they probably do). 2) False flag in order to drum up pro-war sentiment in the West. If Biden escalates in the last weeks of his presidency…

"Escalate"? Allowing Ukraine to use the weapons it has to strike back at an aggressor in order to mitigate or reduce said aggressors ability to continue attacking is ... "escalation"? I don't think so. If anything artificial limits have been placed on Ukraine that are not placed on other nations (or in some cases proscribed terrorist organisations) purchasing or being "gifted" weapons. Whether those weapons are from…

There are sadly a lot of Chamberlains these days with the wool pulled over their eyes.

Re: Two undersea cables in Baltic Sea disrupted

#695

Post by oneshtein »

Cthulhu_ wrote: post #668
esarbe wrote: post #599

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There's no actual evidence that Ukraine did it, lest alone solid proof. Russia is a probable candidate.

The Dutch military intelligence agency MIVD had infiltrants in Ukraine after MH-17 of a plot to blow up the Nord Stream, they tipped off the CIA, who in turn warned Ukraine not to do it, three months before it happened; source [0], translation [1]. Germany has issued an arrest warrant for a Ukranian national [2] who along with two accomplices was on board the yacht Andromeda, which was located at the blast site days…

> The two other suspects, a married couple who do not have warrants issued in their names, have denied knowing Z. and said that they were on vacation in Bulgaria when the attack took place.

:-/

So, one diver moved and installed 500kg of explosives in 4 places in front of a married couple?

Re: Two undersea cables in Baltic Sea disrupted

#696

Post by oneshtein »

eps wrote: post #610
FrustratedMonky wrote: post #591

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Wait. Wasn't it Ukraine that blew up the pipeline? I'm all for them defending themselves. Are you saying it was actually Russia that did it? They blew up own pipeline?

There's an outstanding German warrant for 3 Ukrainians in connection with the incident. https://www.dw.com/en/nord-stream-explosions-germany-issues-...

> The two other suspects, a married couple who do not have warrants issued in their names, have denied knowing Z. and said that they were on vacation in Bulgaria when the attack took place.

Re: Two undersea cables in Baltic Sea disrupted

#698

Post by ajross »

staplung wrote: post #63

It's worth mentioning that cable breakages happen quite often; globally about 200 times per year [1] and the article itself mentions that just last year, two other cables and a gas pipeline were taken out by an anchor. The Gulf of Finland is evidently quite shallow. From what I understand, cable repair ships are likely to use ROVs for parts of repair jobs but only when the water is shallow so hopefully they can figur…

Right. It's indeed worth pointing out that while this certainly looks like Russian terrorism, it's really fairly bad terrorism, all things considered, and not particularly hard or expensive to mitigate.

It's basically a "Putin tax" on the industrial democracies in the reason. I don't see how this helps Russia at all, honestly. Putin has a real shot, given the state of US politics, at salvaging something approximating a "victory" in Ukraine and getting back to peacetime economics. Why rock the boat?

Re: Two undersea cables in Baltic Sea disrupted

#699

Post by ValentinA23 »

kqr wrote: post #496
ValentinA23 wrote: post #321

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A 1 in 36 million chance for three breaks in one day. https://mathb.in/80217

Why is this analysis focused on the Baltics? That's p hacking, given that it happened to happen in the baltics. Let's instead say there are roughly 20 ocean regions we would post hoc consider "the same". Now, given a breakage, what is the probability of at least two more in the same region and day? This is a Poisson distribution with lambda=200/365/20. The probability of two more independent breakages is 0.04 % for t…

I see, this was in fact what I had in mind. The maths I posted represent the horizon of my knowledge in probability and was surprised how well o1-preview was able to output correct numerical calculations.

Having said that how would the odds look like if we factor in the fact the Baltic Sea is one of two zones with the most geopolitical tensions (along with Taiwan).

---

Thanks for the Metaculus recommendation. I was a bit disappointed in the lack of maths in the comments in general. Can you recommend something in the vein of Leetcode with various degrees of difficulty, from very basic to advanced problems ? I'm both interested in probability and statistics

Re: Two undersea cables in Baltic Sea disrupted

#700

Post by oneshtein »

pelasaco wrote: post #680
oneshtein wrote: post #585

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Delivery of Russian gas was stopped by Russia in violation of contract. European gas companies demands $20 billion in compensation. Nobody had incentive to blow up empty pipes except Russia. Of course, Russians used false flag as usual, to blame Ukraine, but Ukraine doesn't hide successful attacks on Russian infrastructure, because Ukraine has legal right to defend itself.

> Of course, Russians used false flag as usual, to blame Ukraine, but Ukraine doesn't hide successful attacks on Russian infrastructure, because Ukraine has legal right to defend itself. This is completely wrong. It involved German/Russian infrastructure, and if confirmed, it would rank as the worst terrorist act in the history of the FRG (Germany) since the Munich Olympic Games. In fact, it could, should, or would l…

So, this is one man, who bought, moved, and then installed 500kg of explosives in 4 places in front of a married couple, right?
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