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Ilya Sutskever to leave OpenAI

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Re: Ilya Sutskever to leave OpenAI

#691

Post by boringg »

izend wrote: post #366
snowbyte wrote: post #365

When walking around the U of Toronto, I often think that ~10 years ago Ilya was in a lab next to Alex trying to figure things out. I can't believe this new AI wave started there. Ilya, Karpathy, Jimmy Ba, and many more were at the right time when Hinton was there too.

And none of them build AI companies in Toronto. I’m Canadian and disappointed at how ineffective we are at building successful companies.

I've thought about this one for a long time having lived in both SV and Canada. It is a complicated one but there are a handful of critical road blocks in Canada that make it more challenging.

(1) Access to size of market even if online being US vs 'foreign' has advantages in political arena/regulatory benefits

(2) Significant tax advantages for US investors vs limited tax advantages for Canada (Angel+VC)

(3) Risk Appetite (impacted by size of market) - compounded by tax disadvantages (why would you take risk if your lining the pockets of the government?)

(4) Bench depth on talent once you really start to scale your company

(5) CAD strength (double edged sword) - talent goes South for better salaries (+ you need to compete), if the company revenue is in USD and employees are paid in CAD

(6) Start-ups paying in equity, early employees taking on that risk actually will get taxed heavily under new cap gains so the incentive to work hard for money is lower.

(7) Network effects of being in the valley - idea percolation, new playbooks, talent, competitiveness, company fitness

I will add that in this very specific AI case there is limited way you are going to find the depth of talent and capital in the country to make that company fly at the scale it needs to be.

Re: Ilya Sutskever to leave OpenAI

#692

Post by trashtester »

chx wrote: post #681
trashtester wrote: post #572

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Crypto currencies has the potential to grow the world economy by about 1-3%, as banking fees go down. Add other uses of crypto may double or triple that, but that's really speculative. AI, on the other hand, has a near infinite potential. It's conceivable that it will grow the global economy by 2% OR MORE per MONTH for decades or more. AI is going to be much more impactful than the internet. Probably more than intern…

All crypto"currencies" with a transaction fee are negative sum games and as such , they are a scam. It's been nine years since the Washington Post admittedly somewhat clumsily but still drawn attention to this and people still insist it's something other than a scam. Despite heady articles about how it's going to solve world hunger, it's just a scam. This round of AI is only capable of producing bullshit. Relevant bu…

I agree, 1-3% was a best case. While I agree it's a net zero, even those who argue for it really don't claim much more than a couple of %.

I actually expected objections on the opposite direction. But then, this is not twitter/X.

The point is that something that can easily generate 20%-100% growth per year (AGI/ASI) is so much more important that the best case prediction for crypto's effect on the economy are not even noticeable.

That's why comparing the crypto bubble to AI is so meaningless. Crypto was NEVER* going to be something hugely important, while AI is potentially almost limitless.

*If crypto had anything to offer at all, it would be ways to avoid fees, taxes and the ability to trace transactions.

The thing is, if crypto at any point seriously threatens to replace traditional currencies as stores of value in the US or EU, it will be banned instantly. Simply because it would make it impossible for governments to run budget deficits, prevent tax evasion and sever other things that governments care about.

Re: Ilya Sutskever to leave OpenAI

#693

Post by ActionHank »

kinnth wrote: post #607
nabla9 wrote: post #447

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Top 6 science guys are long gone. Open AI is run by marketing, business, software and productization people. When the next wave of new deep learning innovations sweeps the world, Microsoft eats whats left of them. They make lots of money, but don't have future unless they replace what they lost.

AI has now evolved beyond just the science and it's biggest issue is in the productization. Finding use cases for what's already available ALONG with new models will be where success lies. ChatGPT is the number 1 brand in AI and as such needs to learn what it's selling, not how its technology works. It always sucks when mission and vision don't align with the nerds ideas, but I think it's probably the best move for b…

> AI has now evolved beyond just the science

Pretty weak take there bud. If we just look at the Gartner Hype Cycle that marketing and business people love so much it would seem to me that we are at the peak, just before the downfall.

They are hyping hard to sell more, when they should be prepping for the coming dip, building their tech and research side more to come out the other side.

Regardless, a tech company without the inventors is doomed to fail.

Re: Ilya Sutskever to leave OpenAI

#694

Post by mrtranscendence »

bsenftner wrote: post #620
itsoktocry wrote: post #613

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I have integrated 6 independent, specialized "AI attorneys" into a project management system where they are collaborating with "AI web developers", "AI creative writers", "AI spreadsheet gurus", "AI negotiators", "AI financial analysts" and an "AI educational psychologist" that looks at the user, the nature and quality of their requests, and makes a determination of how much help the user really needs, modulating h…

I'm at a law firm, this is in use with attorneys to great success. And no, none of them are so dumb they do not verify the LLM's outputs.

How can no one see what we have today? You only need six instances of an LLM running at the same time, with a system to coordinate between them, and then you have to verify the results manually anyway. Sign me up!

Re: Ilya Sutskever to leave OpenAI

#695

Post by startupsfail »

CooCooCaCha wrote: post #689
kinnth wrote: post #607

Earlier quoted context omitted.

AI has now evolved beyond just the science and it's biggest issue is in the productization. Finding use cases for what's already available ALONG with new models will be where success lies. ChatGPT is the number 1 brand in AI and as such needs to learn what it's selling, not how its technology works. It always sucks when mission and vision don't align with the nerds ideas, but I think it's probably the best move for b…

“Its biggest issue is in the productization.” That’s not true at all. The biggest issue is that it doesn’t work. You can’t actually trust ai systems and that’s not a product issue.

Ilya is one of the Founders of the original nonprofit. This is also an issue. It does look like he was not the Founder or in any control of the for profit venture.

Re: Ilya Sutskever to leave OpenAI

#696

Post by xdennis »

Jensson wrote: post #658
Zambyte wrote: post #621

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm genuinely curious: what do you expect an "AGI" system to be able to do that we can't do with today's technology?

An AGI could replace human experts at tasks that doesn't require physical embodiment, like diagnosing patients, drafting contracts, doing your taxes etc. If you still do those manually and not just offload all of it to ChatGPT then you would greatly benefit from a real AGI that could do those tasks on their own. And no, using ChatGPT like you use a search engine isn't ChatGPT solving your problem, that is you solving…

> An AGI could replace human experts at tasks that doesn't require physical embodiment, like diagnosing patients, drafting contracts, doing your taxes etc.

How come the goal posts for AGI are always the best of what people can do?

I can't diagnose anyone, yet I have GI.

Reminds me of:

> Will Smith: Can a robot write a symphony? Can a robot take a blank canvas and turn it into a masterpiece?

> I Robot: Can you?

Re: Ilya Sutskever to leave OpenAI

#697

Post by cristiancavalli »

trashtester wrote: post #572
chx wrote: post #553

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> When the next wave of new deep learning innovations sweeps the world, that won't happen, the next scam will be different it was crypto until FTX collapsed then the usual suspects led by a16z leaned on OpenAI to rush whatever they had on market hence the odd naming of ChatGPT 3.5. When the hype is finally realized to be just mass printing bullshit -- relevant bullshit, yes, which sometimes can be useful but not bill…

Crypto currencies has the potential to grow the world economy by about 1-3%, as banking fees go down. Add other uses of crypto may double or triple that, but that's really speculative. AI, on the other hand, has a near infinite potential. It's conceivable that it will grow the global economy by 2% OR MORE per MONTH for decades or more. AI is going to be much more impactful than the internet. Probably more than intern…

Do you have a source for any of these numbers or is this just your speculation? I haven’t seen any estimates from well-known institutions that reference any of the numbers your are pointing to.

Re: Ilya Sutskever to leave OpenAI

#698

Post by chollida1 »

snowbyte wrote: post #365

When walking around the U of Toronto, I often think that ~10 years ago Ilya was in a lab next to Alex trying to figure things out. I can't believe this new AI wave started there. Ilya, Karpathy, Jimmy Ba, and many more were at the right time when Hinton was there too.

Oh man that was an amazing time at UoT. We also got GPU versions of btc mining from that group.

We also had Ethereum be born right around there as well around 2014. I remember the first Ethereum meetups around Queen and Spadina with Vitalik.

But to another posters point. Even though we had the father of deep learning Geoffrey Hinton and lumiaries like Ilya, and Vitalik, we didn't manage to get any real benefit from that.

Re: Ilya Sutskever to leave OpenAI

#699

Post by chx »

trashtester wrote: post #692
chx wrote: post #681

Earlier quoted context omitted.

All crypto"currencies" with a transaction fee are negative sum games and as such , they are a scam. It's been nine years since the Washington Post admittedly somewhat clumsily but still drawn attention to this and people still insist it's something other than a scam. Despite heady articles about how it's going to solve world hunger, it's just a scam. This round of AI is only capable of producing bullshit. Relevant bu…

I agree, 1-3% was a best case. While I agree it's a net zero, even those who argue for it really don't claim much more than a couple of %. I actually expected objections on the opposite direction. But then, this is not twitter/X. The point is that something that can easily generate 20%-100% growth per year (AGI/ASI) is so much more important that the best case prediction for crypto's effect on the economy are not eve…

LLM is not AGI and there's no way to AGI from LLM. Put down the kool-aid.

Re: Ilya Sutskever to leave OpenAI

#700

Post by ClarityJones »

rvba wrote: post #562
cellis wrote: post #442

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Hypothetically: Could someone play for both the Los Angeles Lakers and Golden State Warriors? Something tells me those non competes are unenforceable.

Isnt those just branches of the same company?

You can have contracts within a company.
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