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How This Ends

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691–698 of 698 posts

Re: How This Ends

#691

Post by baxtr »

FearTheTrees wrote: post #627
baxtr wrote: post #430

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I've invested through bull and bear markets in the last 15 years. I’ve always put most of my money into ETFs, mainly S&P500. It has served me well so far. Just be prepared to be down with your portfolio for some time.

Serious question: Instead of riding the ETFs down, what if I sell investments now and move to cash/gold? Cash would lose value at the rate of inflation, while ETFs can drop 30-40% more if the FED makes mistakes.

I don’t we see another 30-40% loss, 20% the most. We’re already at a point where you could argue that an overreaction has happened.

But hey, it’s the future, so no one can really say anything about it :) I at least am gonna see through this one.

Re: How This Ends

#692

Post by raffraffraff »

michael1999 wrote: post #686
raffraffraff wrote: post #632

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't understand the US stock market, re: Beyond Meat. It's a fucking recipe. Where I live in Ireland there a dozen different fake-meat brands, and they're even getting competition from supermarket "own brand" products (burgers, sausages etc). Don't get me wrong, beyond meat isn't a bad product, but how the hell is a recipe and a few business deals worth IPO and wild speculation? What do they have beyond, uh, fake…

What is Coca-Cola besides a recipe, a brand, and some business deals?

Exactly. I don't get it.

Re: How This Ends

#693

Post by Infernal »

riku_iki wrote: post #102
freediver wrote: post #84

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You are right, inflation may get worse ;)

there should be factors which drive it. For last year such factors are: - increased min wage - supply chain disruptions - China lockdowns: less goods on the market -> higher prices - increased price on commodities and energy All of this already included into current good prices, so there should be something more to push farther inflation.

Genuinely curious why the increasing money supply is not on this list.

Re: How This Ends

#694

Post by riku_iki »

Infernal wrote: post #693
riku_iki wrote: post #102

Earlier quoted context omitted.

there should be factors which drive it. For last year such factors are: - increased min wage - supply chain disruptions - China lockdowns: less goods on the market -> higher prices - increased price on commodities and energy All of this already included into current good prices, so there should be something more to push farther inflation.

Genuinely curious why the increasing money supply is not on this list.

Because it is not clear to me.

Fed was aggressively printing starting 2008, and we didn't observe much inflation, meaning those money didn't go to real economy, but went to some big investment speculations and real estate.

Re: How This Ends

#695

Post by Breza »

natly wrote: post #277
spicyusername wrote: post #250

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The reality is that, regardless of time and place, there is always some shit going on. It will be as true 50 (or 1,000) years from now as it was 50 (or 1,000) years ago. > live a normal peaceful life. Being able to blindly live a normal peaceful life, if it really has even ever been possible for anyone, is the exception, not the rule. Most time periods for most people are fraught with risk and conflict. It is the nat…

Certanily makes it really difficult to focus on skill development and improving as a coder. I get that some people can handle it and I'll probably be selected out from the field for my lack of ability to ignore the macro distractions if this keeps going though.

This year, I've really put effort into building my skills and not spending so many hours reading the news. I find myself feeling happier andI'm currently studying for two highly valued certifications.

Re: How This Ends

#696

Post by Breza »

jbay808 wrote: post #302
88913527 wrote: post #260

Earlier quoted context omitted.

US commenters hopefully know they can re-finance when rates go down. Locked in, with the option of re-fi'ing. Only possible when rates drop but we're yet to have a period of 30 years of continually rising rates.

Yes, I didn't mean to imply that wasn't the case. I meant that in the US, homebuyers can fully protect themselves from the downside risk, an option that doesn't exist in many other countries (like Canada).

Wow, I just assumed that fixed rate mortgages were the norm everywhere. TIL.

Re: How This Ends

#697

Post by Breza »

CaveTech wrote: post #336
thawaya3113 wrote: post #319

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nearly all of Alphabet and Meta’s profits are not from customers paying them to use their product, but advertisers who are trying to convince FB/GOOG customers to use their products. If those companies start disappearing, or cutting back on ad budgets, FB/GOOG don’t have a business model anymore.

Unless the recession is large enough to end the concept of commerce, advertising is not going anywhere. People will continue to buy things, it’s just that what those things are may shift.

People have been arguing that the ad tech industry is overdue for a reckoning due to its opacity and overblown promises. The book Subprime Attention Crisis is one treatment of the topic. Tightening brand budgets might force that reckoning.

Re: How This Ends

#698

Post by nnt38 »

lettergram wrote: post #647
YZF wrote: post #611

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The war isn't over because Putin doesn't care what the costs are. It's not sustainable though. Ukraine will keep fighting and the west will keep supporting it. What are Russia's options? So sure, not decisively defeated. It's not like the entire Russian army was wiped out and Ukrainians are marching in Moscow. But still defeated for all intents and purposes and all around loss (world status, material etc.). This has…

> What are Russia's options? My prediction is that they’re going to take the Russian speaking portions of the country as they originally laid out. That’s effective up to the middle of the country. If Ukraine keeps fighting they may take Odessa and leave Ukraine without a sea port. That’s something like 60-70% of Ukraine’s GDP btw. Russians have already captured 30% of Ukrainian GDP. I don’t think that’s a loss by any…

> Wars typically last years

This is factually inaccurate, most wars last a month, the vast majority is over in 6 months.

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