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What happened to Russias Air Force? U.S. officials, experts stumped

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Re: What happened to Russias Air Force? U.S. officials, experts stumped

#691

Post by oblio »

rixed wrote: post #689
oblio wrote: post #513

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The thing is, once they do that, they'll cross another one of those imaginary lines. And the sanctions Russia is under will be nothing like the ones that will be heaped on top. Europe is highly sensitive about local conflicts, especially after what happened to Srebrenica. Grozny didn't really count since it was: a) an internal war b) at the end of Europe If Putin flattens a major European city (for Europe any city ab…

In 2022 outrage does not influence policies. You have it reversed.

In the US? Probably not.

But in Europe that outrage will also be from a place of fear: maybe Russia will do it to you, too. So it will be longer lasting and a more intense and probably a truer feeling. Not fake outrage.

Re: What happened to Russias Air Force? U.S. officials, experts stumped

#692

Post by xeromal »

UltraViolence wrote: post #199
ceejayoz wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> If that was the case, the mentioned 40-mile convoy heading to Kiev would have been hit by now, no? Not necessarily. That's likely to be a target-rich, but well-defended area. As long as it's not moving - especially given rumors of fuel troubles - there may be better things for the Ukranian air force to tackle, like helicopters moving troops around.

No, this convoy would be an obvious strafing target. I'm disappointed that the Ukrainians didn't even attempt it. Or we haven't heard about it.

We don't know the whole story, but Russia could have air superiority over the convoy.

Re: What happened to Russias Air Force? U.S. officials, experts stumped

#693

Post by cmurf »

pastacacioepepe wrote: post #673
jl6 wrote: post #261

I guess everyone's weighing in with their view, so why not? Firstly, we should be mindful that the fog of war is now in play, and a good amount of what we think we know is unverifiable. With that caveat out of the way... It seems that the Russian soldiers are making efforts to avoid attacking civilians directly. Counterexamples exist and could be explained by rogue units, incompetence, or hot-blooded revenge on local…

All your variants are based on the assumption that Russia wants to stay in Ukraine. From what I've seen i don't think that's the goal. Russia probably wants eastern Ukraine (and let's admit it, Donbass and Donetsk are not Ukrainian anymore since 8 years), but has no interest in occupying the western part, only in ensuring it stays neutral geopolitically. People talking about Russia planning to invade Finland or other…

It is untenable for Russia to keep any portion of Ukraine. It's a violation of the Geneva Convention and the U.N. Charter. At worst it could be made neutral territory and put in U.N. peacekeeping troops.

Two world wars were fought over this issue of just rolling tanks into people's backyards and then staking claim to the land. The sole purpose of these agreements, to which Russia is a signatory (and a founding member of the U.N.) is to prevent exactly what they are doing. It's bad enough the response to Russia's 2009 invasion of Georgia and 2014 invasion of Ukraine came with tepid responses - but it's not OK to just roll over and change borders as an exchange for stopping aggressive war. It would be rewarding that behavior.

The sanctions on Russia should persist as long as Russia occupies Ukraine. This is what they've previously agreed to.

Re: What happened to Russias Air Force? U.S. officials, experts stumped

#694

Post by xeromal »

etempleton wrote: post #477

My best guess would be that a few things are happening: 1. Russian Military Leadership is unwilling to risk their best equipment / personnel This is a pretty radical war in that, yes, Ukraine is overmatched in almost every way, but they also have been provided some of the most advanced and modern anti air and anti tank weaponry by NATO countries. And it may not even be clear to Russia exactly what they have been prov…

I didn't even consider than generals and/or other leaders could be stalling hoping for the war to come to a close.

Re: What happened to Russias Air Force? U.S. officials, experts stumped

#695

Post by xeromal »

demadog wrote: post #100
RcouF1uZ4gsC wrote: post #73

I think part of why Russia looks so inept is because everyone is comparing against the US. However, the US military has the finest logistic operations in the world. Also, there is no substitute for fighting an actual enemy. Part of the reason the US (especial Air Force and Naval Aviation) is so good is that they have actually been fighting. From Libya(Reagan), Gulf War I, Serbia, Gulf War II, Afghanistan, Libya (Obam…

I have this sad, but likely true, theory that the U.S. needs to always be involved in a war to stay in practice and iron out the kinks for bigger wars. I say this as a medium-big supporter of the US military.

I think this too. We're really the only big power in the world that has battlehardened soldiers.

Re: What happened to Russias Air Force? U.S. officials, experts stumped

#696

Post by rixed »

denton-scratch wrote: post #590
jl6 wrote: post #261

I guess everyone's weighing in with their view, so why not? Firstly, we should be mindful that the fog of war is now in play, and a good amount of what we think we know is unverifiable. With that caveat out of the way... It seems that the Russian soldiers are making efforts to avoid attacking civilians directly. Counterexamples exist and could be explained by rogue units, incompetence, or hot-blooded revenge on local…

> Did they really launch this invasion on the assumption that the people of Ukraine would just roll over and accept foreign rule? I don't think it's that simple. Sure, conscripts were told to expect a welcome in streets lined with natives waving Russian flags. Maybe some in high command even thought that was a possibility. But they have backup plans; we've seen only the first click of the ratchet. Escalate, pause; es…

After such a long civil war in Ukraine I find it very hard to believe that they didn't know already exactly what to expect from who.

Re: What happened to Russias Air Force? U.S. officials, experts stumped

#697

Post by TheBigSalad »

smallerfish wrote: post #140
HideousKojima wrote: post #67

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Violence also helps back the idea that Russia needs to be there to stop the violent nazis that state media has painted Ukrainians to be (goes without saying, this is completely fabricated). It definitely isn't "completely fabricated": https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Azov_Battalion The real problem is, who gives a shit if a small unit in the Ukrainian National Guard is made up of far right extremists? It's a purely i…

Could you not imagine the Proud Boys being allowed to serve as a unit if Canada seized Montana and Idaho, and the national guard needed resources? (With the assumption that the US had a GDP equivalent to Ukraine's.)

Honestly I'd prefer to send them in first.

Re: What happened to Russias Air Force? U.S. officials, experts stumped

#698

Post by chrononaut »

988747 wrote: post #174
gvb wrote: post #123

Earlier quoted context omitted.

MIG-29s which they are already flying, not B-52s which are useless to them. The deal fell apart, however. https://newlinesmag.com/reportage/is-poland-sending-fighter-...

This is a kind of Catch 22 situation with how to deliver those MIG-29s: If a Polish pilot flies it to Ukraine, Russia will consider that an act of war, and possibly start bombarding Poland. If Ukrainian pilot comes to Poland and takes off from a Polish airport then again: that is an act of war. The only possibility to deliver them without joining the war against Russia seems to be to disassemble those MIGs and send t…

> The only possibility to deliver them without joining the war against Russia seems to be to disassemble those MIGs and send them by train/truck.

Just have to tow them with horses and tractors. ;)

https://www.mainememory.net/artifact/103726

Re: What happened to Russias Air Force? U.S. officials, experts stumped

#699

Post by k12sosse »

zabzonk wrote: post #688
dmz73 wrote: post #637

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That footage is not of a cluster bomb. Cluster bombs consist of many small bombs that spread over a large area and don't all detonate at once but instead detonate over longer period of time in order to maximize casualties and make area difficult to access https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cluster_munition . NATO used cluster bombs in the 1990s bombing of Serbia https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ni%C5%A1_cluster_bombing . If…

> I think we are now seeing a clearer picture of what happens when there is a conflict in an urban area Now? Have you heard of Stalingrad?

I don't speak for GP but I think they mean "clearer picture" as in: literally live-streaming the frontline, in HD, worldwide.

Re: What happened to Russias Air Force? U.S. officials, experts stumped

#700

Post by laichzeit0 »

TimTheTinker wrote: post #519
jl6 wrote: post #261

I guess everyone's weighing in with their view, so why not? Firstly, we should be mindful that the fog of war is now in play, and a good amount of what we think we know is unverifiable. With that caveat out of the way... It seems that the Russian soldiers are making efforts to avoid attacking civilians directly. Counterexamples exist and could be explained by rogue units, incompetence, or hot-blooded revenge on local…

> It seems that the Russian soldiers are making efforts to avoid attacking civilians directly. That doesn't apply to apartment buildings, schools, hospitals, etc. The shelling is very intense in multiple cities. So yes, most Russians aren't directly firing on people in the street, but in larger cities they're destroying their homes and local infrastructure.

So the school bombings are easily justified. I saw two separate pictures on Reddit yesterday where Ukrainian soldiers are prepping in a school gym (think it was a basketball court). Like selfie shots from a Ukrainian soldier.

Look Im pro Ukraine. Out of interest I joined a bunch of Telegram groups that are “pro Russian” to see how both sides see the conflict. There is a lot of information you’re missing out on if you just look at mainstream news. Like the school thing. Maybe I’m being redpilled. It was a weird eye opening experience for me.

Edit: here it is https://www.reddit.com/r/warinukraine/comments/t52e62/ukrain...

There’s also another video of a school attack aftermath. Dead Ukrainian solders in the school. Looks like it was close quarter combat.

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