Worker pay isn’t keeping up with inflation • Hacker News Board

Re: Worker pay isn’t keeping up with inflation

#691

Post by aeternum » Fri, Dec 17, 2021, 5:23 PM UTC

ChuckNorris89 wrote: post #148

aeternum wrote: post #68

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Likely some of both. Many of the costs are going to the supply-chain bottlenecks, IE: meat packing plants, lumber mills, container ports, chip manufacturers. Demand is high and it's hard for new supply to be brought online so those in the right position benefit significantly. For example AMD and NVDA revenue up 50%+, income 100%+ Eventually these high margins will attract competitors and bring down the margins but it…

>For example AMD and NVDA revenue up 50%+, income 100%+ Eventually these high margins will attract competitors and bring down the margins For those examples that is false hope. You can't just spring up a new competitor in the GPU filed out of thin air and expect it to work; Nvidia and AMD duopolies are so far ahead into the game experience wise that no startup could ever catch up no matter how much money you throw at…

We'll see, 10 years ago people were saying Intel's fabs was so far ahead that no competitor had a chance of catching up.

Re: Worker pay isn’t keeping up with inflation

#692

Post by PaulDavisThe1st » Fri, Dec 17, 2021, 5:25 PM UTC

treis wrote: post #618

PaulDavisThe1st wrote: post #556

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That is true, but somehow elides the reality that even if interest rates were zero, you would still end up having to "divert" 5.8 years of median salary to own a median house in 2021, which has significant implications for lots of other aspects of life, particularly but not limited to retirement.

But, again, you're using purchase price which is not how people buy homes. For $100,000 borrowed that's $422 a month at 3% and and $1,264 at 15%. Mortgage payments as a % of income are at historic lows: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MDSP This is an unusually good time to be a home owner. You can borrow at near 0 or even slightly negative real interest rates and buy an asset that is almost guaranteed to hold/incr…

But again, you're missing the point.

People live in homes for their entire lives. If they decide to be owners rather than renters, over the course of their life (actually, typically somewhat less than their whole lives) they will end up mortgage free. This is an important component of most people's retirement planning, in fact.

What's the cost to get to that point? It used to 2x annual salary, it's now nearly 6x annual salary. That's 4 full years of earnings which vanish into owning a home. If you do not reverse mortgage or sell during retirement, you effectively "lose" this money.

Re: Worker pay isn’t keeping up with inflation

#693

Post by mayormcmatt » Fri, Dec 17, 2021, 5:27 PM UTC

shakezula wrote: post #654

pydry wrote: post #545

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The gun industry started the culture war for profit and fans the flames for profit. Take away the profit margins and have a few more mass shootings and I imagine the 2nd amendment would melt away as easily as the 4th did.

I disagree that it was the gun industry that started the war, but they absolutely fan the flames for profit. The 2nd amendment will never go away as long as conservatives use it as a wedge issue. It's far too important as leverage, and they've been incredibly successful in cementing it further into law even very recently. My state just passed Constitutional Carry into law this year.

Fresh Air recently aired an interview with former gun industry marketing exec Ryan Busse, about their responsibility in the American culture wars. I can't remember off the top, though, whether he claim they are only fanning it or are the main origins of it. Anyway, an interesting listen.

Re: Worker pay isn’t keeping up with inflation

#694

Post by tsimionescu » Fri, Dec 17, 2021, 5:27 PM UTC

KptMarchewa wrote: post #609

deadbunny wrote: post #466

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Am I in some kind of weird HN bubble where no-one has ever used a physical map? I've travelled extensively pre-turn by turn navigation using physical maps, i spent a year motorcycling across mainland Europe in my early 20's using nothing but physical maps, I did the same but in the US during the early-mid 2000's. Was it as easy as sticking a zip code into a magic box and having it tell me where to go and when to take…

This is not a bubble, and driving using physical maps outside of major highways is a nightmare.

Less pleasant than GPS, sure, but by no means a rare skill or impossible to achieve. Would you get the road wrong more often, and have to stop and re-check? Yeah, definitely. Would you still get from A to B in roughly the same time? Yeah, definitely.

Re: Worker pay isn’t keeping up with inflation

#695

Post by treespace88 » Fri, Dec 17, 2021, 5:28 PM UTC

dan-robertson wrote: post #276

Gareth321 wrote: post #250

Real wages have been flat since the 1970s ( https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2018/08/07/for-most-us... ). "Okay, so people's living standards are about the same since 1970?" Not even close. The problem with inflation is that its calculation is fraught with all kinds of selective weighting, bias, and politics. Take a look at the relative differences between the things which have decreased and increased in cost in…

> most Americans are significantly worse off since the 1970s I think this is obviously false and hurts the credibility of the rest of this comment. There are many pitfalls with measuring long-term inflation. How much did an internet connection cost in the 1970s? What about a computer? What about a smartphone? These modern technologies make peoples lives much better and were somewhere between impossible and impossibly…

We are much worse off when measuring the amount of time it takes to hit milestones.

At what age are people moving out, having children, buying a home, retirement?

The age for all of this has gone up massively. Because it takes much longer to earn enough money to afford to do these things.

Re: Worker pay isn’t keeping up with inflation

#696

Post by treis » Fri, Dec 17, 2021, 5:30 PM UTC

PaulDavisThe1st wrote: post #692

treis wrote: post #618

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But, again, you're using purchase price which is not how people buy homes. For $100,000 borrowed that's $422 a month at 3% and and $1,264 at 15%. Mortgage payments as a % of income are at historic lows: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MDSP This is an unusually good time to be a home owner. You can borrow at near 0 or even slightly negative real interest rates and buy an asset that is almost guaranteed to hold/incr…

But again, you're missing the point. People live in homes for their entire lives. If they decide to be owners rather than renters, over the course of their life (actually, typically somewhat less than their whole lives) they will end up mortgage free. This is an important component of most people's retirement planning, in fact. What's the cost to get to that point? It used to 2x annual salary, it's now nearly 6x annu…

>What's the cost to get to that point? It used to 2x annual salary, it's now nearly 6x annual salary.

It's just not. You're not accounting for the interest paid over 30 years of a mortgage.

Re: Worker pay isn’t keeping up with inflation

#697

Post by subsubzero » Fri, Dec 17, 2021, 5:31 PM UTC

mc32 wrote: post #650

colinmhayes wrote: post #602

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In the post war period the US was manufacturing goods for not just domestic use, but for the entire world. Pretty much all industrial capability was here in that period, so foreigners were forced to buy American goods. Those days are over and are never coming back. Most countries have their own industrial base now. There will never again be american employment in manufacturing like there was in the post war period, e…

It’s not only manufacturing though. And we don’t have to export to the world. We just need to support our own manufacturing and our own service workers. My school janitors used to be able to send their kids to college and afford a humble house. Retail store clerks (Married with Children). All that is now cheap labor --you can't expect to pay a mortgage and send kids to college/uni. You may be able to afford the cheap…

agree, also look to the tech giants who practice outsourcing. 50%+ of Google's employees are contractors[1], imagine if they were all employees what a brighter future so many families would have and what a gigantic boost to the economy it would create.

[1] - https://www.nytimes.com/2019/05/28/technology/google-temp-wo...

Re: Worker pay isn’t keeping up with inflation

#698

Post by nradov » Fri, Dec 17, 2021, 5:32 PM UTC

Gareth321 wrote: post #250

Real wages have been flat since the 1970s ( https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2018/08/07/for-most-us... ). "Okay, so people's living standards are about the same since 1970?" Not even close. The problem with inflation is that its calculation is fraught with all kinds of selective weighting, bias, and politics. Take a look at the relative differences between the things which have decreased and increased in cost in…

There's more to employee compensation than just wages. Real total employee compensation has risen significantly since the 1970s when you factor in employer contributions to health insurance premiums. While some of that money is wasted, employees are getting tangible benefits in the form of new medical treatments that weren't even available 50 years ago.

What we need to do is decouple health insurance from employment.

Re: Worker pay isn’t keeping up with inflation

#699

Post by yibg » Fri, Dec 17, 2021, 5:33 PM UTC

wing-_-nuts wrote: post #20

We had an all-hands meeting recently where we got to submit anonymous questions. One of the questions was 'with inflation rising at 6%, will the company reconsider their 'standard' 2% raise?' The lady answering looks dead in the camera and goes 'Honestly? No' and goes on to talk about how we're reasonably competitive with the local market. Hey, credit where credit is due, at least she was a refreshingly straight shoo…

To be fair, the company's goal is to pay enough to attract and retain the right talent, not to keep up with inflation. e.g. if everyone else in the market is giving 0%, why would they give 6%?

Also, I assume employees would be pretty upset (I would be) if they got -2% if there is deflation happening, so seems a bit of a double standard there.

Long way of saying I think tying increase to inflation is kinda silly.

Re: Worker pay isn’t keeping up with inflation

#700

Post by basisword » Fri, Dec 17, 2021, 5:35 PM UTC

montblanc wrote: post #434

deadbunny wrote: post #421

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> How about the ability to drive around with GPS? Maps, and the ability to read them. > Or stay easily in touch with family living far away? Phones, you know good old land lines > Taking photos of your baby and having it stored on the cloud for free? Why do I need physical photos stored in the cloud? > The ability to learn almost anything for free? Have ya heard of libraries? Does technology make these more convenien…

> Maps, and the ability to read them. You basically need another passenger with you otherwise you'll have to do a lot of stops. I'd even say its a bit risky to drive like that. > Phones, you know good old land lines So you are saying having a high def video call with my brother living across the world, for free, is just like calling him in the 60s? It used to be crazy expensive to call abroad. And you couldn't see! >…

I’m not trying to be condescending but I’m guessing you’re pretty young?

>> Try learning C++ in a library, good luck with that.

How do you think people learnt to code before the internet? I borrowed large textbooks on Basic/VB, C++, and Turbo Pascal from friends and libraries. And this wasn’t a long time ago. I did this as recently as 2005.

>> Do you physically develop all your photos? If you do you are an exception to the rule, most people develop maybe 1% of their photos.

Why would you take photos and not develop them? When I finish a roll I take it to the local store and they develop the photos. I then put them in an album or store them in another way. People have been doing this for a long time.

>> So you are saying having a high def video call with my brother living across the world, for free, is just like calling him in the 60s?

Most people I know disable video in meetings. The majority don’t do video calls with friends unless they have some friend that calls them that way. I find audio calls much more enjoyable that video calls and I definitely don’t think I’m in the minority there. If you haven’t seen someone in years and they live far away a video call might be nice but in most cases audio is not only enough, but better.

>> You basically need another passenger with you otherwise you'll have to do a lot of stops.

Most journeys people make repeat. You learn the route. The modern obsession with GPS is so we don’t get there a minute early or late. For infrequent, really long drives you can plan your trip in advance, noting down the steps of the journey rather than following the map constantly. It’s also amazing how far you get just following road signs when you know the general towns on your route.