However, I’m interested in at least understanding the other side. Are there any studies or estimates of the effect this might have? How many crimes would have actually been prevented by this, in the past few years? How many lives saved or child trafficking victims spared?
Of course, criminal behavior might easily change once a law like this is passed, but this would at least help give an upper bound on the benefit and my guess is it would still be very low. The world mostly continues to get safer and safer, there are still some outlier horrific crimes that happen but these might not be affected by banning encryption (such as mass shootings, which are usually a single person not coordinating with anybody).
I would just like to understand what concrete problem this solves from the lawmakers perspective.