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Master Plan, Part Deux

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Re: Master Plan, Part Deux

#691

Post by decisiveness »

ams6110 wrote: post #101

My points of skepticism: 1. Semis . A typical long haul semi gets well under 10MPG. In some cases not much more than half that. They are heavy and need a lot of energy to move. A Tesla Model S weighs 4650 lbs and has a range of a couple of hundred miles. A semi truck can weigh up to 80,000 lbs. That is a lot of weight to get rolling and a lot to pull up a grade. Semis spend a large part of their time driving at highw…

3. Seems like the biggest issue to me. If you're an Uber/taxi driver you have the ability to stop the car and kick people out. Your presence is what mostly deters the riders from doing untoward shit. Just think about everything drunk people would do if a driver was absent.

Whatever counter Tesla might have in store to prevent this, it would have to involve them analyzing/monitoring/recording the behavior of people in the vehicle, which would be a huge privacy nightmare that nobody wants to be a party to.

Re: Master Plan, Part Deux

#692

Post by ne0n »

snowwrestler wrote: post #233
maratd wrote: post #219

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I still don't understand the SolarCity part. People who buy electric cars are far more likely to buy solar panels. And storage batteries. And wiring they would need for the electric car. It's all directly related. So when I buy a Tesla ... I have to hire a 3rd party to install the wiring to charge it. I can buy the storage battery from Tesla, but again, need to hire someone else to install it. And if I want solar p…

> People who buy electric cars are far more likely to buy solar panels. And storage batteries. And wiring they would need for the electric car. It's all directly related. Is this true? I'd be interested in learning more about the data behind this. Anyway, for the sake of discussion let's say it is. Does that mean there is a correlation that scales to the whole population? Or is it just that electric cars and solar pa…

Generally, having an electric car would push your electric bill into much higher usage tiers where the power is most expensive. Solar panels make the most sense for people who use the most electricity and pay the most for it. I've seen first hand that people who drive electric cars like to talk about clean energy and if they've got solar panels on their roof, it refutes the argument about burning coal to generate the electricity. As solar panels continue to drop in price, it starts to make more sense for the rest of the population, too.

Re: Master Plan, Part Deux

#693

Post by five3 »

mrtron wrote: post #127
irq11 wrote: post #93

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm still waiting for him to deliver on his original promises. Like creating a profitable electric car company. I give him credit for SpaceX, but Tesla's main product so far has been hopes and dreams.

Have you driven a Tesla? Their product is very good.

Have you driven other cars at a similar price point? The tesla is trash in comparison.

Re: Master Plan, Part Deux

#694

Post by tim333 »

Cthulhu_ wrote: post #437
ams6110 wrote: post #383

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I can't speak for everywhere, I'll admit. Where I live, the owner is responsible, as I have learned firsthand by involvement in several accident scenarios where the vehicle owner was not driving at the time. You must purchase insurance for each vehicle you own, and if you allow another person to drive your vehicle you retain the liability. I'm sure there are some exceptions e.g. if your vehicle is stolen, or in cases…

How is the liability with rental or lease cars though? I think that's the legal structure in which the Tesla car pool would operate in. If Tesla would lease out their own cars instead of sell them, they could make a lot of money too, plus lower the bar for a lot of people to drive it.

I presume with a shared Teslas there would be a specific shared Tesla insurance policy to sort stuff.

Re: Master Plan, Part Deux

#695

Post by tim333 »

pfranz wrote: post #279
dingaling wrote: post #261

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> 1. They'll be able to line the entire trailer with batteries But that's an enormous inversion of expense that falls on the trailer owners. The tractor-trailer model works so well because it concentrates complexity and cost in the tractor. At present trailers are mechanically fairly simple and require only routine servicing with a basic toolkit. They draw power from their tractor. An owner can maintain a fleet of tr…

Semis sound like a better market for hot-swapping and renting your battery compared to consumers. The rollout is a bit more straightforward since the travel routes are more obvious (weigh stations or truck stops).

Some math on the weight issue - A big rig tractor unit is about 10 tons in weight. A tesla model S battery is about half a ton. The energy to move a truck is maybe 8x (given trucks get 5mpg, cars 40mpg approx), so that's a 4 ton battery for 200 mile range. Electric motors weigh much less than a large diesel engine so the weight would come out about the same. I think cost may be more of an issue.

Re: Master Plan, Part Deux

#696

Post by tim333 »

decisiveness wrote: post #691
ams6110 wrote: post #101

My points of skepticism: 1. Semis . A typical long haul semi gets well under 10MPG. In some cases not much more than half that. They are heavy and need a lot of energy to move. A Tesla Model S weighs 4650 lbs and has a range of a couple of hundred miles. A semi truck can weigh up to 80,000 lbs. That is a lot of weight to get rolling and a lot to pull up a grade. Semis spend a large part of their time driving at highw…

3. Seems like the biggest issue to me. If you're an Uber/taxi driver you have the ability to stop the car and kick people out. Your presence is what mostly deters the riders from doing untoward shit. Just think about everything drunk people would do if a driver was absent. Whatever counter Tesla might have in store to prevent this, it would have to involve them analyzing/monitoring/recording the behavior of people in…

Operations like http://www.zipcar.co.uk/ could have the same issue and seem to do ok.

Re: Master Plan, Part Deux

#697

Post by tim333 »

cubaia wrote: post #658
greendestiny wrote: post #375

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Here's a probably equally badly made statistic. Tesla estimates their cars had driven 130 million autopilot miles before the fatality. Some googling suggests the first non-autopilot Tesla S fatality was in july 2014 and this graph ( http://insideevs.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/Tesla-Model-... ) suggests that was around 400 million miles driven. So the autopilot is 3.33 times 'worse'? Who knows, but if Tesla feels…

In other words, if you're a Tesla driver, you're safer driving the car yourself than driving it with autopilot.

I get that impression from the stats. They say the autopilot is ok if you keep an eye on it but in the real world people won't always - I think the guy who died was watching a movie.

On the other hand about 1 million people die each year in driving accidents so if by winging it a bit you can stop that a year earlier it's a million lives saved vs maybe <10 autonomous deaths in the research phase.

Re: Master Plan, Part Deux

#698

Post by tim333 »

pdq wrote: post #139

I still don't understand the SolarCity part. Tesla is atop the best rated electric cars, and has a good trajectory toward that product line future, with lots of innovation ahead. Successful companies like Apple focus on best-in-class products, so Tesla is smart to continue focusing their resources into those product lines. Meanwhile SolarCity has been burning cash on a consistent basis [1], and is sitting in a hyper…

The proposed SolarCity acquisition is probably bad for Tesla shareholders but good for Musk personally as he was the largest shareholder of SolarCity and the deal will kind of bail it out. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-06-21/tesla-anno...

Re: Master Plan, Part Deux

#699

Post by aerovistae »

hueving wrote: post #665
aerovistae wrote: post #74

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm actually curious about the bus, too. Sounds weird. But I trust his judgement, I'm sure it'll be great. He has a track record, you know. Regarding missed promises, if you're saying that as if to suggest that what he's promised isn't nonetheless coming true at a pace faster than anyone else could have possibly delivered, I think you're wearing blinders. Regarding "most difficult".......are you aware of other compan…

>Regarding missed promises, if you're saying that as if to suggest that what he's promised isn't nonetheless coming true So you're saying that, if I promise you I'll give you a thousand dollars in a week but then I give it to you in two years, I haven't broken a promise?

I'm saying if you promise me you'll get to Mars in a week, and do it in 10 years instead, I'll still consider you a pretty astonishing person.

Re: Master Plan, Part Deux

#700

Post by Decade »

Someone wrote: post #432
8611m wrote: post #172

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If this was the only thing that mattered for businesses, we wouldn't have Amazon as Walmart has consistently produced more net profit over Amazon since the last 22 years. 1 1. http://revenuesandprofits.com/amazon-vs-walmart-revenues-and...

A difference is that Tesla hasn't really managed to execute its original plan, in particular: - Use that money to develop a medium volume car at a lower price - Use that money to create an affordable, high volume car Amazon is way better at making money to invest in growth. Tesla ?still? is in a fairly deep well, and will need investments to crawl out of it. Big question is whether they will. Good news is that they a…

That would depend on what your definition of “use” is. Musk is using a surprising definition of “use” that includes “leverage.”

The income increases the cash flow, which is obviously important, but it also signals to investors and bankers that there is a business, and they can invest or loan with better confidence.

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