Earlier quoted context omitted.
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Some on this forum will be working for companies with conflicts of interest on the topic, and if an employees words were construed to be the opinions of the company that could be bad for that person.
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Microsoft and OpenAI end their exclusive and revenue-sharing deal
681–690 of 915 posts
Re: Microsoft and OpenAI end their exclusive and revenue-sharing deal
#682A wise man from Google said in an internal memo to the tune of: "We do not have any moat neither does anyone else." Deepseek v4 is good enough, really really good given the price it is offered at. PS: Just to be clear - even the most expensive AI models are unreliable, would make stupid mistakes and their code output MUST be reviewed carefully so Deepseek v4 is not any different either, it too is just a random token…
Deepseek v4, Qwen 3.6 Plus/Max, GLM 5+ are all pretty solid for most work.
Don't forget the Kimi 2.6 as well!
Re: Microsoft and OpenAI end their exclusive and revenue-sharing deal
#683Earlier quoted context omitted.
I was once almost fired for saying a little too much in an HN comment about pentesting. Being dragged into an office and given a dressing-down for posting was quite traumatic. The central issue (or so they claimed) was that people might misconstrue my comment as representing the company I was at. So yeah, I don’t understand why people are making fun of this. It’s serious. On the other hand, they were so uptight that…
> On the other hand, they were so uptight that I’m not sure “opinions are my own” would have prevented it. In my experience it didn't matter at all, they considered "you work for us, its known you work for us, therefore your opinions reflect on us". Absolute nonsense, they don't pay me for 24 hours of the day. I told them where they can stick it (politely) and got a new job.
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Re: Microsoft and OpenAI end their exclusive and revenue-sharing deal
#684Earlier quoted context omitted.
Inference is quite profitable, so wrong again.
Right. Going to take "inference is quite profitable" apart, because there's nothing else in your reply. OpenAI's adjusted gross margin: 40% in 2024, 33% in 2025. Reason cited: inference costs quadrupled in one year. https://sacra.com/c/openai/ Internal projections leaked to The Information: ~$14B loss on ~$13B revenue in 2026. Cumulative losses through 2028: ~$44B. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/openais-own-forecast-…
Pointing at the API margin and calling the whole business profitable is the financial equivalent of weighing yourself with one foot off the scale.
I didn’t call the business profitable, I said that inference is profitable. I was responding to your assertion that they’re speculating by selling below cost. Which isn’t true; they’re selling inference, profitably. They’re losing money because they’re investing in the next model. The company isn’t profitable, it might never be profitable, but the product they’re selling is profitable. So calling it speculation based on selling something below cost is just factually incorrect.
Re: Microsoft and OpenAI end their exclusive and revenue-sharing deal
#685Earlier quoted context omitted.
And almost by happenstance Apple. Turns out they have a great platform for inference and torched almost nothing comparatively on Siri. The Apple/Gemini deal is interesting, Google continues to demonstrate their willingness to degrade their experience on Apple to try and force people to switch.
If you do the math (I did), in 2 years, open source models that you can run on a future MacBook Pro will be as capable as the frontier cloud models are today. Memory bandwidth is growing rapidly, as is the die area dedicated to the neural cores. And all the while, we have the silicon getting more power efficient and increasingly dense (as it always does). These hardware improvements are coming along as the open sourc…
A Opus 4.7/Gpt5.5 class model is 5 trillion parameters[1].
To run a 8 bit quantized version of that you need roughly 5TB of RAM.
Today that is around 18 NVidia B300. That's around $900,000, without including the computers to run them in.
It's true that the capability of open source models is improving, but running actual frontier models on your MPB seems a way off.
[1] https://x.com/elonmusk/status/2042123561666855235?s=20 (and Elon has hired enough people out of those labs to have a fair idea)
Re: Microsoft and OpenAI end their exclusive and revenue-sharing deal
#686Earlier quoted context omitted.
Some on this forum will be working for companies with conflicts of interest on the topic, and if an employees words were construed to be the opinions of the company that could be bad for that person.
I was once almost fired for saying a little too much in an HN comment about pentesting. Being dragged into an office and given a dressing-down for posting was quite traumatic. The central issue (or so they claimed) was that people might misconstrue my comment as representing the company I was at. So yeah, I don’t understand why people are making fun of this. It’s serious. On the other hand, they were so uptight that…
Opinions are my employers, and they are also bastards.
Bold and silly of you to even reveal where you work tbh.
Re: Microsoft and OpenAI end their exclusive and revenue-sharing deal
#687Opinions are my own. I think the biggest winner of this might be Google. Virtually all the frontier AI labs use TPU. The only one that doesn't use TPU is OpenAI due to the exclusive deal with Microsoft. Given the newly launched Gen 8 TPU this month, it's likely OpenAI will contemplate using TPU too.
> Microsoft will no longer pay a revenue share to OpenAI.
> Revenue share payments from OpenAI to Microsoft continue through 2030, independent of OpenAI’s technology progress, at the same percentage but subject to a total cap.
How is this helping OpenAI?
Re: Microsoft and OpenAI end their exclusive and revenue-sharing deal
#688Earlier quoted context omitted.
If you do the math (I did), in 2 years, open source models that you can run on a future MacBook Pro will be as capable as the frontier cloud models are today. Memory bandwidth is growing rapidly, as is the die area dedicated to the neural cores. And all the while, we have the silicon getting more power efficient and increasingly dense (as it always does). These hardware improvements are coming along as the open sourc…
A Opus 4.7/Gpt5.5 class model is 5 trillion parameters[1]. To run a 8 bit quantized version of that you need roughly 5TB of RAM. Today that is around 18 NVidia B300. That's around $900,000, without including the computers to run them in. It's true that the capability of open source models is improving, but running actual frontier models on your MPB seems a way off. [1] https://x.com/elonmusk/status/204212356166685523…
As far as I can tell Minimax M2.7 is better than anything available a year ago, but it runs on an ordinary PC. Will that continue? Not sure, but the trend has continued for the last two years and I don't know of any fundamental limits the models are approaching.
Re: Microsoft and OpenAI end their exclusive and revenue-sharing deal
#689Earlier quoted context omitted.
If you do the math (I did), in 2 years, open source models that you can run on a future MacBook Pro will be as capable as the frontier cloud models are today. Memory bandwidth is growing rapidly, as is the die area dedicated to the neural cores. And all the while, we have the silicon getting more power efficient and increasingly dense (as it always does). These hardware improvements are coming along as the open sourc…
A Opus 4.7/Gpt5.5 class model is 5 trillion parameters[1]. To run a 8 bit quantized version of that you need roughly 5TB of RAM. Today that is around 18 NVidia B300. That's around $900,000, without including the computers to run them in. It's true that the capability of open source models is improving, but running actual frontier models on your MPB seems a way off. [1] https://x.com/elonmusk/status/204212356166685523…
The OP said "as capable as the frontier cloud models are today" which might assume model improvements that do more with less. Opus 4.7/Gpt5.5 performance might be achievable with a fraction of the parameters.
Re: Microsoft and OpenAI end their exclusive and revenue-sharing deal
#690[dead]