681–690 of 800 posts
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I'm just using Copilot CLI for mindless stuff and set it to the premium models to meet the quota, as long as they can't see the prompts I think I should be fine
You're not going to get fired. Don't worry about it :)
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> All of these occulted skills, that we literally can't explain why they work are akin to gamblers superstitions. Yes, it's hard to see how, at this moment in time, "Anybody can write code with an LLM" is so different from "Anybody can make money in the stock market." The underlying mechanisms are completely different, of course, and the putative goal of the LLM purveyors is to make it where anybody really can write…
Broadly speaking, LLMs are destined to fail. Why? Because all the folks involved have created a technology in search for a problem to solve. That never, ever works. Steve Jobs of all people left this piece of wisdom behind. Its amazing how few actually apply it. The internet was never this - its origins go back to the need to able to transmit data - darpa. And this is what we still do now...
And to be fair, Steve Jobs was a master of taking things that had been invented elsewhere, and making them work well enough to foster a demand.
But your point stands. Who made the most money, Xerox PARC, or Apple?
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Brutal. But probably all too common. One of my clients has very suddenly gone all-in on agentic AI and they're in this crazy hurry. (Probably the most annoying part is they want to automate stuff that I built a POC for using GPT-4o, two years ago - at the time they saw no use for it, but now they're all-in on the hype.) This started literally two weeks ago and a couple of days ago I talked to one of the admin people…
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Shareholders only care about short term gains, CEOs have no skin in the game, everyone else under wants to keep their job. None of these are aligned towards "make the nest proudct and satisfy customers".
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It's really insane what is happening. My wife manages 70 software developers. Her boss mandated that managers replace 50% of the staff with AI within a year. And, she's scrambling trying to figure out if any of the tools actually work and annoying her team because she keeps pushing AI on them. Unsurprisingly it's only slowed things down and put her in a terrible position.
Maybe what they really want her to do is get rid of 50% of her staff and the AI is just an excuse? In that case she should focus on "who can we do without?" rather than "how can we replace people with AI?"
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As an employee of a big tech company doing this, it's all fear mongering. We are being told that if everyone doesn't use these tools, our competitors will wipe the floor with us because they are using them and will ship features 10x faster. But many engineers are suspicious as well.
Hook line and sinker.. Right so you are going to be left behind whilst the ground keeps shifting under you, given the models are non-deterministic and continuously changing? There was a big rush of prompt engineers. Where are they now? Nobody even referse to 'prompt engineering' anymore. The best thing to do is wait for steady-state. Whats going on is insane... a slow implosion of the code base.
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I don't even think it's stupidity. It's simple greed and an extreme case of Goodhart's lawsl. Shareholders want to hear AI, so CEOs will burn the rest of the company to satisfy that. The company doesn't matter; they will get paid handsomely for destroying it. Shareholders only care about short term gains, CEOs have no skin in the game, everyone else under wants to keep their job. None of these are aligned towards "ma…
Personally I believe the stock market is incredibly, incredibly shaky. Investors are now in full-fear mode, it doesn't matter what news Nvidia etc print - if customers of OAI and others, are not seeing a meaningful INCREMENTAL increase in revenue generation or increase in cost-reduction (aside from white-washing it with lay-offs from insane hiring in the past).
RE. stupidity - it is stupidity for the most part. Without the stupidity in quantity of demand, there is no market for LLMs from enterprise et al.
Wanna know how stupid it is? Someone I know who works at Blackrock as a portfolio manager pretty high up is all of a sudden being forced to learn how to code and use LLMs to code. Yes you heard me right - this behaviour is expanding out of the software engineering profession.
Its absolutely nuts.
There's a tough timing call that comes into play with this because there is no ability to predict, only to look in hindsight, it's more of a hedge to be in and say I bought a lottery ticket and had a chance during the AI boom than it is to not engage.
I believe the saying is "you never win if you never play."
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I don't even think it's stupidity. It's simple greed and an extreme case of Goodhart's lawsl. Shareholders want to hear AI, so CEOs will burn the rest of the company to satisfy that. The company doesn't matter; they will get paid handsomely for destroying it. Shareholders only care about short term gains, CEOs have no skin in the game, everyone else under wants to keep their job. None of these are aligned towards "ma…
The counter point to this is Apple who have not invested barely a dime in LLMs. Their stock price has not been crushed at all, quite the opposite in fact. They focus on the good stuff. Perhaps that's the luxury of living off the vision and leadership of someone who died many years ago. Personally I believe the stock market is incredibly, incredibly shaky. Investors are now in full-fear mode, it doesn't matter what ne…
Nintendo also has similar vibes. I see shareholder calls asking about AI usage and their answers come down to something like "we're not ruling it out, but we'll only use it when a situation presents itself". They tend to be pretty good at pushing back against their shareholders. Having a proper war chest instead of constantly funding on debt probably helps.
> it is stupidity for the most part. Without the stupidity in quantity of demand, there is no market for LLMs from enterprise et al.
Stupidity implies incompetence and lack of intent. Greed is incredibly intentional. There's always a bit of stupidity with greed (we even call such an algorithmic approach the "greedy method" after all), but I think they are important distinctions.
I'll admit your blackrock example is plain stupidity, though. I know part of the end-goal is for "idea guys" to be able to make their ideas without pesky employees, but I don't think too many really think they can achieve that today.
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> All of these occulted skills, that we literally can't explain why they work are akin to gamblers superstitions. Yes, it's hard to see how, at this moment in time, "Anybody can write code with an LLM" is so different from "Anybody can make money in the stock market." The underlying mechanisms are completely different, of course, and the putative goal of the LLM purveyors is to make it where anybody really can write…
Broadly speaking, LLMs are destined to fail. Why? Because all the folks involved have created a technology in search for a problem to solve. That never, ever works. Steve Jobs of all people left this piece of wisdom behind. Its amazing how few actually apply it. The internet was never this - its origins go back to the need to able to transmit data - darpa. And this is what we still do now...
I agree with the sentiment of this article. Sadly, I'm still disagreeing while crypto kiddies are driving past me in lambo's. If its the future of money, yes we'll get there eventually, but like every technology shift, there's a lot of money to be made in the transition, not after. * * I sold all crypto a few years ago and I'm a happier person :D