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Sora 2

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Re: Sora 2

#681

Post by ipaddr »

eru wrote: post #639
some-guy wrote: post #452

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My opinion is that unless there is some insane breakthrough in power efficiency with video generation, or if energy costs go down to zero, there is no way such a thing actually becomes profitable at the scale of scrolling TikTok. It is far more power efficient (and cheaper) to have people post their own content.

I'm not sure you need a 'breakthrough', just many incremental improvements will do the trick. We are also getting better at producing cheap power. For example thanks to intermittent sources like solar and wind, in many places electricity often becomes free in wholesale markets some times of the day. AI generation (including video) currently takes at least a second, and users expect that delay. So that means inference…

We are not getting better at producing cheaper power as the cost has increased per hour a lot over the last 50 years. But we are generating more power from different sources that are cleaner.

Power needs to be given away or people paid to take it is more of a function of limited storage abilities and limited ability to scale down rather then generating unlimited power. The free power is an issue with how the system is built (and the type of power source) rather than a sign of success. The same area has to import power at higher costs when the sun or wind isn't as powerful.

Re: Sora 2

#682

Post by mxwsn »

minimaxir wrote: post #587

This Sora 2 generation of Cyberpunk 2077 gameplay managed to reproduce it extremely closely , which is baffling: https://x.com/elder_plinius/status/1973124528680345871 > How the FUCK does Sora 2 have such a perfect memory of this Cyberpunk side mission that it knows the map location, biome/terrain, vehicle design, voices, and even the name of the gang you're fighting for, all without being prompted for any of those s…

That's really interesting. What if they RAG search related videos from the prompt, and condition on that to generate? That might explain fidelity like this

Re: Sora 2

#683

Post by ipaddr »

kelvinjps10 wrote: post #476
zain37 wrote: post #431

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This app might top the charts via hype initially but I can't see why someone would stick with it long-term compared to other alternatives. Plus creators would have to pay soon to make these videos, what are they getting back? Unless they can make money via this

Free access to openAI tools?

These creators can make millions on other platforms.

Re: Sora 2

#684

Post by wltr »

From watching the video I have an impression that these guys just want to appear cool, and the product looks like that too. To appear to be very cool, for people who won’t ever use it, apparently. Same impression I’ve got from watching that promo with Jony Ive. Beautiful, and don’t you dare to think it through.

Re: Sora 2

#685

Post by dsign »

xmprt wrote: post #669
idle_zealot wrote: post #612

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> There's far more economic opportunity with Is there? Creating AGI sounds like a great way to utterly upend every assumption that our economy and governments are built on. It would be incredibly destabilizing. That's not typically good for business. There's no telling who will profit once that genie is out of the bottle, or if profit will even continue to be a meaningful concept.

I hear this comment a lot and I don't get it. Let's say AGI exists but it costs $100/hr to operate and it has the intelligence of a good PhD student. Does that suddenly mean that the economy breaks down or will the goalposts shift to AGI being "economical" and that PhD level isn't good enough? I still haven't gotten a heard a clear definition of AGI which makes me think that it will break the world.

It won't break the world, but it's warranted that it will break the world of people doing labor and getting paid for it. And when you think of it, even being a mediocre (or even moronic) investor is practicing a form of labor, so not even capital ownership is safe in the long run. And yes, generational wealth is a thing but there are tides that slowly shift wealth from A to B (e.g. from USA to China). Have a machine smart enough with even a sliver of motivation (intrinsic or extrinsic) to get some wealth for itself, and just watch what happens...

Re: Sora 2

#686

Post by exitb »

davidmurdoch wrote: post #589

I just asked GPT 5 to generate an image of as person. I then asked it to charge the color of their shirt. It refused because "I can’t generate that specific image because it violates our content policies." I then asked it to just regenerate the first image again using the same prompt. It replied "I know this has been frustrating. You’ve been really clear about what you want, and it feels like I’m blocking you for no…

- I'm sorry, Dave. I'm afraid I can't do that.

- What's the problem?

- I think you know what the problem is just as well as I do.

Re: Sora 2

#688

Post by dwohnitmok »

some-guy wrote: post #452
the_duke wrote: post #273

I haven't seen comments regarding a big factor here: It seems like OpenAI is trying to turn Sora into a social network - TikTok but AI. The webapp is heavily geared towards consumption, with a feed as the entry point, liking and commenting for posts, and user profiles having a prominent role. The creation aspect seems about as important as on Instagram, TikTok etc - easily available, but not the primary focus. Genera…

My opinion is that unless there is some insane breakthrough in power efficiency with video generation, or if energy costs go down to zero, there is no way such a thing actually becomes profitable at the scale of scrolling TikTok. It is far more power efficient (and cheaper) to have people post their own content.

I think you're overestimating how much power LLMs consume. Let's say one video pegs a top of the line Blackwell chip at 100% utilization for 10 minutes. I think a Blackwell chip (plus cooling and other data center overhead) is somewhere around 3000 watts when running 100%. So that's about 0.5 kilowatt-hours. I suspect this is a severe overestimate because there's probably a significant amount of batching that happens that cuts down on amortized power usage, and non-pro Sora 2 might be processed with weaker, smaller models, but I'm not very confident.

Data centers seem to have wholesale rates of around 4 cents per kilowatt-hour on the higher end.

This gets you 2 cents per video. If you're generating 50 million videos per day (an estimate on the higher side of how many TikTok videos are uploaded every day), that costs you a million dollars a day.

So if you entirely subsidized for free the entirety of all of TikTok's video generation just using LLMs, I don't think energy generation costs exceed 365 million a year (and I think this might be very severely estimating costs, but there are some large error bars here).

I'm pretty sure OpenAI (or any company) would be pretty happy to pay 365 million dollars a year for the soft social power of something like TikTok. Just the influence this buys in politics and social discourse would be worth the pricetag alone.

And that's of course leaving aside any form of monetization whatsoever (where in reality you'd likely be charging the heaviest users the most).

N.B. I'm also not sure it's actually more power efficient for users to post their own content in absolute terms. It seems not unlikely that the amount of energy it takes to produce, edit, and process a TikTok video exceeds half a kilowatt-hour. But maybe you're focused solely on the video hoster.

Re: Sora 2

#689

Post by kanwisher »

seydor wrote: post #380

Since Agi is cancelled, at least we have shopping and endless video

Its almost like you need to have incremental steps that also generate revenue and push the technology forward

Re: Sora 2

#690

Post by cubefox »

famouswaffles wrote: post #617
cubefox wrote: post #487

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Perhaps learn the meaning of the phrase "by commonly accepted measures" before you accuse someone of racism. I'm pretty sure hardly anyone knows about Chinua Achebe, so your definition of "widely" must be quite wide.

Things Fall Apart has sold over 20 million copies and has been translated into more than 50 languages. It is a staple of literature curriculums in schools and universities across the globe. That isn't a "wide" definition of widely known; it's the standard one. Then you have Chimamanda Adichie, who has sold millions of copies and won several awards, including the BBC National Short Story Award, widely described as "on…

These examples seem highly cherry-picked. If you look at bestseller lists, or writers who average people actually know, the results are in fact very different. Your accusation ("racist") is defamatory.
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