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TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.

wsj.com

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Re: TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.

#681

Post by throwawayffffas »

tnt128 wrote: post #314

The idea that the US protects Taiwan from a possible Chinese invasion over chips is one of those things that sounds believable but really isn't going to happen. From China’s perspective, the cost of war is much higher than the cost of developing these chips themselves. In the worst-case scenario, they would be 2-3 years behind the cutting edge, which is not mission-critical. Most electronics (civilian or military) do…

> 1. China takes Taiwan quickly.

That is extremely unlikely to happen, Taipei has invested a lot in defense, and until lately the public in Taiwan at least says they would fight[1]. It's extremely unlikely that they will fold so fast that the US won't have to get involved or to choose to not get involved.

> 3. Taiwan successfully defends itself, repels the Chinese invasion, and possibly even takes back some territory.

That won't happen either. China has an incredible manpower and material advantage, they are unlikely to be effectively defeated. Even if Taiwan can deny the channel and prevent a landing they will still be effectively blockaded.

> 2. Stalemate. Taiwanese people fight bravely, and Chinese forces turn out to be weaker than expected. In this case, the US would be in a comfortable position to send aid and weapons to help Taiwan, prolonging the war to weaken China. With some luck, a regime change could happen without firing a shot.

It will take weeks before we can tell if there is a stalemate or not, and the stalemate will not be stable. If the Americans try to provide aid they will have to cross the Chinese blockade and they will have to fight to do so.

[1] https://www.dw.com/en/most-taiwanese-would-defend-island-aga...

Re: TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.

#682

Post by xxpor »

bloppe wrote: post #648
VWWHFSfQ wrote: post #619

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I think it's far more likely the US will "sell" Taiwan to China for some deal that benefits the US financially or politicially. This will happen after USA extricates all the meaningful tech and re-homes the institutions and workforce required to maintain that tech to the USA mainland. Still probably a decade or two away, but likely.

Why would China will wait for a decade? They've been very clear about wanting to invade by 2027

They want to be ready to invade by 2027. Very different.

Re: TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.

#683

Post by [deleted] »

chmod775 wrote: post #487
bloomingkales wrote: post #458

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Never underestimate the power of saving face. The Taiwan invasion had a dry run with how they handled Hong Kong. This is going to happen and my guess is it will be on Trump’s way out. That way it all gets done during the 2028 election season, and all the next President can do is pout. It’s a win-win for Trump because he keeps China at bay for three years, which is good enough for him.

How are Taiwan and Hong Kong at all comparable? Hong Kong never had their own military, was never an independent nation, and was officially handed over from Britain to China in 1997. There was no armed invasion of Hong Kong - Chinese military was already garrisoned there for 25 years.

[deleted]

Re: TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.

#684

Post by ethbr1 »

xxpor wrote: post #680
knowitnone wrote: post #662

Earlier quoted context omitted.

the US made China it's manufacturing arm and now the US wants to take that back? Kind of late. If China invades Taiwan, the US is to blame. Talk about putting all your eggs in one basket.

And China made the US its source of income. The relationship works both ways. The consumer market in China is a disaster.

Hard to have a strong consumer market with 17%+ youth unemployment.

Re: TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.

#685

Post by toasterlovin »

tnt128 wrote: post #314

The idea that the US protects Taiwan from a possible Chinese invasion over chips is one of those things that sounds believable but really isn't going to happen. From China’s perspective, the cost of war is much higher than the cost of developing these chips themselves. In the worst-case scenario, they would be 2-3 years behind the cutting edge, which is not mission-critical. Most electronics (civilian or military) do…

Something I never see anybody discuss is that China is completely dependent on imported oil and the U.S. has the strongest Navy in the world. Unless I'm missing something, sanctioning oil deliveries to China should actually work in a way that sanctions don't really work against Russia, since Russia is a net energy exporter (bringing up Russia since I think that's the natural comparison for whether sanctions work). From my cursory research, China has a small petroleum reserve, hardly imports any oil via pipeline from Russia, and an industrial economy ceases to function almost immediately without oil.

Re: TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.

#686

Post by thorncorona »

dboreham wrote: post #654
UltraSane wrote: post #484

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This seems like one of Putin's motivations for invading Ukraine. He couldn't stand having a prosperous Ukraine aligned with the EU and the US that could foment discontent inside Russia.

It's not just that he couldn't stand it, but rather what it does to his position inside Russia. If your business model is to rabbit on about how wonderful Russia is, and how sucky all other countries are, if there's a more successful more free country next door containing almost the same kind of people, then your words are hollow.

Not really..

USA will not have a hostile cuba, just as Russia won’t have a hostile Ukraine, and China won’t have a hostile Taiwan on its doorstep.

Re: TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.

#687

Post by xxpor »

ethbr1 wrote: post #684
xxpor wrote: post #680

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And China made the US its source of income. The relationship works both ways. The consumer market in China is a disaster.

Hard to have a strong consumer market with 17%+ youth unemployment.

And the reason there's 17%+ youth unemployment is because there's a weak consumer market!

This is what happens when you structure your entire economy around exports: artificially weak currency, capital controls, artificially low wages, etc.

Re: TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.

#688

Post by bitsage »

jmyeet wrote: post #597

Underpinning a lot of Taiwan discourse is the idea that China has the capability to invade Taiwan. It does not. Nor do I think it actually wants to. China (IMHO) is happy to leave the Taiwan Question unanswered and unresolved. Roughly 100 miles of open ocean separates the Chinese mainland from Taiwan. It may as well be 10,000 miles. The difference is the same. That is an absolutely uncrossable gap for the Chinese mil…

China definitely prefers the status quo. With both countries’ rapidly aging demographics, a peaceful reunification might actually be feasible later this century. If Putin and Kim Jong Un are any indication, Xi is more likely to act if he thinks the status quo will be interrupted.

Re: TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.

#689

Post by dragonwriter »

thorncorona wrote: post #686
dboreham wrote: post #654

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's not just that he couldn't stand it, but rather what it does to his position inside Russia. If your business model is to rabbit on about how wonderful Russia is, and how sucky all other countries are, if there's a more successful more free country next door containing almost the same kind of people, then your words are hollow.

Not really.. USA will not have a hostile cuba, just as Russia won’t have a hostile Ukraine, and China won’t have a hostile Taiwan on its doorstep.

> USA will not have a hostile cuba

USA will, from all signs, not only continue to have a hostile Cuba, but also create a hostile Mexico.

And that's even before considering the internal hostility to the regime that the deliberately-engineered major economic collapse--that is already happening despite numerous policies that will deepen it still being in the pipeline and not yet in place--will create.

The US withdrawing from international engagement, trashing alliances, and trashing its own economy may enable competing powers more space to dominate their own regions, but it doesn't do anything to strengthen the US's regional position, it radically weakens it.

Re: TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.

#690

Post by procgen »

world2vec wrote: post #52

Might be a silly question but considering the tensions between US and EU right now... What would happen to all these deals if ASML was was not allowed to sell their machines to US companies? I don't know enough to even speculate on these wild scenarios

Then ASML gets Nord Stream'd.
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