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GPT-5 is behind schedule

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Re: GPT-5 is behind schedule

#681

Post by bilsbie »

netdevphoenix wrote: post #640
atonse wrote: post #457

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Same here. The ability to “talk to an expert” about any topic I’m curious about and ask very specific questions has been invaluable to me. It reminds me of being a kid and asking my grandpa a million questions, like how light bulbs worked, or what was inside his radio, or how do we have day and night. And before anyone talks about accuracy or hallucinations, these conversations usually are treated as starting off poi…

> The ability to “talk to an expert” about any topic I’m curious about and ask very specific questions has been invaluable to me. It is dangerous to assume that LLMs are experts on any topic. With or without quotes. You are getting a super fast journalist intern with a huge memory but inability to reason critically, lacking understanding about anything and huge unreliability when it comes to answering questions (you…

IMO it’s dangerous to call experts experts as well. Possibly more dangerous.

Re: GPT-5 is behind schedule

#682

Post by Rodmine »

simonw wrote: post #113

"OpenAI’s is called GPT-4, the fourth LLM the company has developed since its 2015 founding." - that sentence doesn't fill me with confidence in the quality of the rest of the article, sadly.

Also, it was not a company when it was founded in 2015. It was in 2019 when they decided to change the non-profit org to a for-profit company.

Re: GPT-5 is behind schedule

#683

Post by palata »

weatherlite wrote: post #664
palata wrote: post #592

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What makes you believe that AGI will happen, as opposed to all the beliefs that other people have had in history? Tons of people have "predicted" the next evolution of technology, and most of the time it ends up not happening, right?

To me (not OP) it's ChatGPT 4 , it at least made me realize it's quite possible and even quite soon that we reach AGI. Far from guaranteed, but seems quite possible.

Right. So ChatGPT 4 has impressed you enough that it created a belief that AGI is possible and close.

It's fine to have beliefs, but IMHO it's important to realise that they are beliefs. At some point in the 1900s people believed that by 2000, cars would fly. It seemed quite possible then.

Re: GPT-5 is behind schedule

#684

Post by brookst »

shafyy wrote: post #618
brookst wrote: post #483

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What human experts do you blindly trust without double checking?

LLM proponents really have succeeded in moving the overton window on this discussion. "Sure, you cannot trust LLMs, but you cannot trust humans, either".

I don’t think “Overton window” works in that construction. It typically refers to the range of politically acceptable opinions.

LLMs are too new to have such a thing. It sounds like you’re an “LLM opponent” (whatever that means) who believes the appropriate standard is infallibility? I don’t even get that line of thinking, but you’re welcome to it. But let’s not pretend this is a decades-long topic with a social consensus that people try to influence.

Re: GPT-5 is behind schedule

#685

Post by brookst »

discreteevent wrote: post #589
TeMPOraL wrote: post #543

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So LLMs are unreliable experts, okay. They're still useful if you understand their particular flavor of unreliability (basically, they're way too enthusiastic) - but more importantly, I bet you have exactly zero human experts on speed dial. Most people don't even know any experts personally, much less have one they could call for help on demand. Meanwhile, the unreliable, occasionally tripping pseudo-experts named GP…

> Most people don't even know any experts personally, much less have one they could call for help on demand. Most people can read original sources.

And yet here you are making an unsourced claim. Should I trust your assertion of “most”?

Re: GPT-5 is behind schedule

#686

Post by gizmo »

netdevphoenix wrote: post #640
atonse wrote: post #457

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Same here. The ability to “talk to an expert” about any topic I’m curious about and ask very specific questions has been invaluable to me. It reminds me of being a kid and asking my grandpa a million questions, like how light bulbs worked, or what was inside his radio, or how do we have day and night. And before anyone talks about accuracy or hallucinations, these conversations usually are treated as starting off poi…

> The ability to “talk to an expert” about any topic I’m curious about and ask very specific questions has been invaluable to me. It is dangerous to assume that LLMs are experts on any topic. With or without quotes. You are getting a super fast journalist intern with a huge memory but inability to reason critically, lacking understanding about anything and huge unreliability when it comes to answering questions (you…

People who are experts (PhD and 20 years of experience) often have very dumb opinions in their field of expertise. Experts make amateur mistakes too. Look at the books written by expert economists, expert psychologists, expert historians, expert philosophers, expert software engineers. Most books are not worth the paper they're written on, despite the authors being experts with decades of experience in their respective fields.

I think you overestimate the ability of a typical 'expert'. You can earn a PhD without the ability to reason critically. You can testify as an expert in a courtroom without understanding conditional probability. Lawyers and accountants in real life also totally contradict themselves when they get asked the same question twice but phrased slightly differently.

Re: GPT-5 is behind schedule

#687

Post by zild3d »

missedthecue wrote: post #271
dkobia wrote: post #232

Earlier quoted context omitted.

AGI is the Sisyphean task of our age. We’ll push this boulder up the mountain because we have to, even if it kills us.

Do we know LLMs are the path to AGI? If they're not, we'll just end up with some neat but eye wateringly expensive LLMs.

> we'll just end up with some neat but eye wateringly expensive LLMs

Prices have been falling drastically though, not even just e.g. 4o pricing at launch in May vs now (50% lower) but also models getting distilled

Re: GPT-5 is behind schedule

#688

Post by Angostura »

bilsbie wrote: post #681
netdevphoenix wrote: post #640

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The ability to “talk to an expert” about any topic I’m curious about and ask very specific questions has been invaluable to me. It is dangerous to assume that LLMs are experts on any topic. With or without quotes. You are getting a super fast journalist intern with a huge memory but inability to reason critically, lacking understanding about anything and huge unreliability when it comes to answering questions (you…

IMO it’s dangerous to call experts experts as well. Possibly more dangerous.

No. Expertise isn’t a synonym for ‘infallible’ it denotes someone whose lived experience, learned knowledge and skill means that you should listen to their opinion in their area of expertise - and defer to it, unless you have direct and evidence-based reasons for thinking they are wrong.

Re: GPT-5 is behind schedule

#689

Post by Hugsun »

atonse wrote: post #472
1209412comb wrote: post #465

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Semi-related but I find that sometime it just completely ruined a type of conversation. Like as in your example, I would previously asked people "how would 911 handle an US Reservation Area", and watch how my friends think and reason. To me getting a conclusive answer was not a point. Now they just copy & paste Chat GPT, no fun haha.

Yeah it can definitely be a crutch too in some situations. I notice it with my kids where they’ll want to tell me about something but then seek a video or something to show it. Sometimes I have to say “no! just use your words to describe it! I want to hear your description”

I think it's good of you to make them critically engage with the subject by verbalizing it themselves. Evidence suggests that video consumption is relatively un-engaging mentally, likely as it demands nothing of you.

Re: GPT-5 is behind schedule

#690

Post by indeed30 »

gizmo wrote: post #686
netdevphoenix wrote: post #640

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The ability to “talk to an expert” about any topic I’m curious about and ask very specific questions has been invaluable to me. It is dangerous to assume that LLMs are experts on any topic. With or without quotes. You are getting a super fast journalist intern with a huge memory but inability to reason critically, lacking understanding about anything and huge unreliability when it comes to answering questions (you…

People who are experts (PhD and 20 years of experience) often have very dumb opinions in their field of expertise. Experts make amateur mistakes too. Look at the books written by expert economists, expert psychologists, expert historians, expert philosophers, expert software engineers. Most books are not worth the paper they're written on, despite the authors being experts with decades of experience in their respecti…

I don't disagree with what you say, but one difference is that we generally hold these people accountable and often shift liability to them when they are wrong (though not always, admittedly), which is not something I have ever seen done with any AI system.
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