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OpenAI O3 breakthrough high score on ARC-AGI-PUB

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Re: OpenAI O3 breakthrough high score on ARC-AGI-PUB

#681

As an aside, I'm a little miffed that the benchmark calls out "AGI" in the name, but then heavily cautions that it's necessary but insufficient for AGI. > ARC-AGI serves as a critical benchmark for detecting such breakthroughs, highlighting generalization power in a way that saturated or less demanding benchmarks cannot. However, it is important to note that ARC-AGI is not an acid test for AGI

It is a necessary but not sufficient condition to AGI.

Re: OpenAI O3 breakthrough high score on ARC-AGI-PUB

#682

Congratulations to Francois Chollet on making the most interesting and challenging LLM benchmark so far. A lot of people have criticized ARC as not being relevant or indicative of true reasoning, but I think it was exactly the right thing. The fact that scaled reasoning models are finally showing progress on ARC proves that what it measures really is relevant and important for reasoning. It's obvious to everyone that…

i am confused cause this dataset is visual-based, and yet being used to measure 'LLM'. I feel like the visual nature of it was really the biggest hurdle to solving it.

Re: OpenAI O3 breakthrough high score on ARC-AGI-PUB

#683
post #524

With only a 100x increase in cost, we improved performance by 0.1x and continued plotting this concave-down diminishing-returns type graph! Hurray for logarithmic x-axes! Joking aside, better than ever before at any cost is an achievement, it just doesn't exactly scream "breakthrough" to me.

imo it's a mistake to interpret the marginal increases in the upper echelons of benchmarks as materially marginal gains. Chess is an example. ELO narrows heavily at the top, but each ELO point carries more relative weight. This is a bit apples and oranges since chess is adversarial, but I think the point stands.

> ELO narrows heavily at the top

What do you mean by this? I'm assuming you're not speaking about simple absolute differences in value - there have been top players rated over 100 points higher than the average of the rest of the top ten.

Re: OpenAI O3 breakthrough high score on ARC-AGI-PUB

#684

Can I just say what a dick move it was to do this as a 12 days of Christmas. I mean to be honest I agree with the arguments this isn’t as impressive as my initial impression, but they clearly intended it to be shocking/a show of possible AGI, which is rightly scary. It feels so insensitive to that right before a major holiday when the likely outcome is a lot of people feeling less secure in their career/job/life. Tha…

Wtf is wrong with you dude? It's just another tech, some jobs will get worse some jobs will get better. Happens every couple of decades. Stop freaking out.

Re: OpenAI O3 breakthrough high score on ARC-AGI-PUB

#685

Can I just say what a dick move it was to do this as a 12 days of Christmas. I mean to be honest I agree with the arguments this isn’t as impressive as my initial impression, but they clearly intended it to be shocking/a show of possible AGI, which is rightly scary. It feels so insensitive to that right before a major holiday when the likely outcome is a lot of people feeling less secure in their career/job/life. Tha…

This is a you problem. Yes there will be pain in short term, but it will be worth it in long term. Many of us look forward to what a future with AGI can do to help humanity and hopefully change society for the better, mainly to achieve a post scarcity economy.

Post scarcity seems very unlikely. Humans might be worthless, but there will still be a finite number of AIs, compute, space, resources.

Re: OpenAI O3 breakthrough high score on ARC-AGI-PUB

#686
post #537

I just graduated college, and this was a major blow. I studied Mechanical Engineering and went into Sales Engineering because cause I love technology and people, but articles like this do nothing but make me dread the future. I have no idea what to specialize in, what skills I should master, or where I should be spending my time to build a successful career. Seems like we’re headed toward a world where you automate s…

Yeah, it may feel scary but the biggest issue yet to be overcome is that to replace engineers you need reliable long horizon problem solving skills. And crucially, you need to not be easily fooled by the progress or setbacks of a project.

These benchmark accomplishments are awesome and impressive, but you shouldn't operate on the assumption that this will emerge as an engineer because it performs well on benchmarks.

Engineering is a discipline that requires understanding tools, solutions and every project requires tiny innovations. This will make you more valuable, rather than less. Especially if you develop a deep understanding of the discipline and don't overly rely on LLMs to answer your own benchmark questions from your degree.

Re: OpenAI O3 breakthrough high score on ARC-AGI-PUB

#688
post #93

The programming task they gave o3-mini high (creating Python server that allows chatting with OpenAI API and run some code in terminal) didn't seem very hard? Strange choice of example for something that's claimed to be a big step forwards. YT timestamped link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SKBG1sqdyIU&t=768s (thanks for the fixed link @photonboom) Updated: I gave the task to Claude 3.5 Sonnet and it worked first s…

Sonnet isn't a "mini" sized model. Try it with Haiku.

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Re: OpenAI O3 breakthrough high score on ARC-AGI-PUB

#689
The first computers cost millions of dollars and filled entire rooms to accomplish what we would now consider simple computational tasks. That same computing power now fits into the width of a finger nail. I don’t get how technologists balk at the cost of experimental tech or assume current tech will run at the same efficiency for decades to come and melt the planet into a puddle. AGI won’t happen until you can fit enough compute that’d take several data center’s worth of compute into a brain sized vessel. So the thing can move around process the world in real time. This is all going to take some time to say the least. Progress is progress.

Re: OpenAI O3 breakthrough high score on ARC-AGI-PUB

#690

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> acid test The css acid test? This can be gamed too.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Acid_test : > An acid test is a qualitative chemical or metallurgical assay utilizing acid. Historically, it often involved the use of a robust acid to distinguish gold from base metals. Figuratively, the term represents any definitive test for attributes, such as gauging a person's character or evaluating a product's performance. Specifically here, they're using the figurative sense of…

also a "litmus test" but I guess that's a different chemistry test...
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