Two undersea cables in Baltic Sea disrupted • Hacker News Board

Re: Two undersea cables in Baltic Sea disrupted

#681

Post by cmrdporcupine » Tue, Nov 19, 2024, 2:49 PM UTC

carabiner wrote: post #420

threeseed wrote: post #335

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And also Ireland escorted a Russian spy ship away from their cables: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/nov/16/russian-spy-sh...

A disruption in communications can mean only one thing: invasion.

Russia does not have the manpower or logistics to invade anywhere (else). They have spent 2 years tossing meat-waves against Ukraine to grind them down, take a few km a week, and cause demoralization until their stooge could get into the Whitehouse and give it all to them for free.

Invading the Baltics or Poland or Sweden... not on the table.

"Hybrid" warfare, yes. But that's been going on for two decades.

Thing is: cutting people's fiber optic lines isn't going to get them out of this sanction regime.

Re: Two undersea cables in Baltic Sea disrupted

#682

Post by lesuorac » Tue, Nov 19, 2024, 2:50 PM UTC

lolinder wrote: post #645

carabiner wrote: post #420

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A disruption in communications can mean only one thing: invasion.

It can also mean that Russia is posturing and retaliating for the US's announcement that Ukraine can strike inside Russia with US missiles. This feels more like the same kind of exercise that North Korea does with their missile tests than it does an actual invasion.

I never really liked the whole sabotage is just "posturing" opinion.

Like there's real physical stuff destroyed (or in most circumstances digital stuff). How hard is it to impound ships that break stuff and etc so that the ones responsible are actually punished?

Re: Two undersea cables in Baltic Sea disrupted

#683

Post by pelasaco » Tue, Nov 19, 2024, 2:52 PM UTC

FrustratedMonky wrote: post #593

peutetre wrote: post #576

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You do. Russia's invasion of Ukraine is not an ambiguous war. Russia is plainly in the wrong.

Yeah. Lot of Russian Apologist. Russia invades Ukraine -> It is Biden's fault, he ordered it. Russia actually invading and killing -> It was NATO's fault for discussing admission. Like, Russia is actually 'doing the bad things'.

> Like, Russia is actually 'doing the bad things'.

Yes, Russia is doing bad things.. But do we really need or want a third World War because of it? It’s not Ukraine’s fault that Russia invaded, but Ukraine bears responsibility for having been so corrupt over the past 20 years and for being irresponsible given its proximity to Russia. We still don’t know how much of the aid sent to Ukraine is being lost to corruption... So I am not willing to fight this War.

Re: Two undersea cables in Baltic Sea disrupted

#684

Post by cmrdporcupine » Tue, Nov 19, 2024, 2:57 PM UTC

rdtsc wrote: post #184

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #113

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> yet NATO/EU just looks weak and pathetic in the process Really? Russia, with the 6th largest army in the world, had to pull in Iran and Pyongyang to not get invaded by the 13th largest [1][2]. Moscow is being a nuisance. That doesn't make NATO or Europe look weak, it makes Russia look pathetic. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_number_of... [2] https://www.nytimes.com/2024/08/13/world/europe/uk…

> Really? That's exactly how the Russians perceive the EU. They are perceived as weak. There is no way they would have started the invasion if they were afraid of them. They are engaging in asymmetrical warfare because they are convinced they can demonstrate that to the world as well "look what we are doing there and well we get is phone calls form Sholz" [1] > Scholz condemned the war of aggression against Ukraine >…

That Russian ideology is stuck in 19th century / WWI-era imperial mentality is their own problem. How they "perceive" Europe is their own concern.

Europe mostly learned its lessons after WWII and is more interested in commerce and trade, not in battling over colonial possessions and ethnic partitioning. The games that the US (in Iraq, Syria etc.) and the Russians are playing have had nothing but negative effects on the world. US poked the hornets nest in Iraq/Syria and now Europe has had a refugee crisis for 10+ years. Russia butchering Ukraine the same.

Re: Two undersea cables in Baltic Sea disrupted

#685

Post by sach1 » Tue, Nov 19, 2024, 2:57 PM UTC

jeltz wrote: post #646

froh wrote: post #623

Earlier quoted context omitted.

the contrast with independent random events is exactly the point of the comment you've replied to, isn't it?

The grandparent comment is total nonsense which sounds smart but is not. Damages from accidents are not independently random either. Or do you think it is virtually impossible that 140 people die on the same airliner? It is likely the same ship cut both either by accident or intentionally. I am leaning towards sabotage but that two cables were cut means very little.

What are the odds 140 people would all die from an airplane crash on the same day? Wild

/s

Re: Two undersea cables in Baltic Sea disrupted

#686

Post by pelasaco » Tue, Nov 19, 2024, 2:57 PM UTC

benterix wrote: post #566

pelasaco wrote: post #556

Earlier quoted context omitted.

just to be honest, the Pipelines explosion, had "Russia" written all over it, except after investigation, and a possible culprit, i.e not Russia, then nobody wanted to discuss about it anymore. I think the hysteria is too high, people are thirsty for War, looks like..

> people are thirsty for War, looks like.. Nobody in the West wants any war. The usual tactics of Putin is to do what he wants whether on his or foreign soil, using poisoning etc. in a way that everybody knows it's him but he will politely deny. It's a kind of a silly game, the GRU could just have put a bullet in Lytvynenko's head but they choose a slow death to show off.

I’m not sure that no one wants a war. I can see some groups profiting from it.. I see some politicians being quite blunt about it—some in Germany, for instance, who are well-known lobbyists for the defense industry. Biden’s decision to allow the use of long-range weapons seems like a tactical political move designed to make Trump’s life significantly harder from day one. It feels irresponsible, as it appears that war is being used both to weaken the opposition and to enrich the defense industry.

Re: Two undersea cables in Baltic Sea disrupted

#687

Post by Cthulhu_ » Tue, Nov 19, 2024, 2:59 PM UTC

trhway wrote: post #424

carabiner wrote: post #420

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A disruption in communications can mean only one thing: invasion.

yes. What Russia does currently is probing and testing - what it takes to disrupt all the necessary cables simultaneously to create communication breakdown and a lot of chaos, what resources and time it takes to repair (and thus planning the options on blocking those repair resources, etc.) It takes tanks half-a-day to cross the Baltic states to reach the sea. That is the time Russia wants to buy. Once Russian forces…

There's plenty of alternative communications systems in place and I presume the military does not depend exclusively on one, two, or even three systems, least of all the relatively vulnerable internet cables. NATO, borders, and the Russian invasion response playbooks predate the internet by decades, too.

While theoretically it's possible that Russia would simultaneously dismantle or jam the internet, mobile phones, radio, sattelite, and runners in fast cars, if that does happen it's already red alert everywhere.

Re: Two undersea cables in Baltic Sea disrupted

#688

Post by Cthulhu_ » Tue, Nov 19, 2024, 3:03 PM UTC

v0lta wrote: post #559

nkrisc wrote: post #537

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This would be more concerning if Russia had any tanks left. Are you suggesting Russia has a full invasion force they’re not using in Ukraine? Or to liberate their own occupied territory?

Today: no In 5-10 years: probably

Maybe, but that's assuming their war economy lasts for that long, that they still have people to run those things, etc. Besides, Europe was caught with its proverbial pants down; in 5-10 years, they will (should) have their military up to speed again, with fresher, better equipped and better trained people than Russia has. The border countries have all upgraded their defenses already, and if they invade a NATO country they suddenly have all of Europe and - if still applicable at the time - the US on their back.

There are no scenarios in which Russia can have any significant victories. The only thing they maybe have is nukes, but nobody wins if those are deployed.

Re: Two undersea cables in Baltic Sea disrupted

#689

Post by vasco » Tue, Nov 19, 2024, 3:04 PM UTC

Cthulhu_ wrote: post #672

vasco wrote: post #632

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't know what goes on to comment. I'm not there and I don't fool myself into thinking that I know geopolitics just because I read some articles. My comment was replying to someone who said the Russians are the war thirsty people of the world. It's a bit rich because, there's a bunch of other ongoing wars in the world and people aren't just "bad" or "good"

Objective facts though: Russia invaded Ukraine, in 2014 and 2022. There was no formal declaration of war. There were widespread and indiscriminate attacks on civilians. Which parts of those are "good" in your opinion? Do you believe Russia's "denazification" claim? There are no international laws that legitimized Russia's invasion of Ukraine. If Ukraine was in violation of something, there's procedures in place to de…

No parts of the war are good - I didn't make any claims about the Russian war, I don't know what caused it or why it's going on, and I don't like wars. I don't believe most claims by either side, I doubt there's advantage in revealing the real reasons by either side - the articles we read are to craft an opinion either to support one side or the other and I don't think it's that simple - that's my whole point. I don't need to think a war is legitimate to have a reaction to someone saying there's one country with warmonger people and one country without. In general I think it's normal to side with the invaded party and I'm personally inclined to support that side - but it doesn't mean I tell myself I'm making some informed decision.

Re: Two undersea cables in Baltic Sea disrupted

#690

Post by lrasinen » Tue, Nov 19, 2024, 3:04 PM UTC

ValentinA23 wrote: post #331

gleenn wrote: post #324

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's assuming independence. I'm not ruling out sabotage but the world is often not fully independent. A storm or an anchor both may affect multiple cables if they're in generally the same area which would definitely make the probability far more likely than those stated. (edit typo)

Indeed ! https://www.datacenterdynamics.com/en/news/lithuania-sweden-... >Lithuania-Sweden subsea cable cut, was 10m from severed Finnish-German cable

I don't buy that number (no source is attributed to it), or rather, I don't believe there's a single incident causing this.

The C-Lion1 cable is predominantly North-East - South-West whereas the BCS cable is NW-SE. They do meet, but the C-Lion1 operator Cinia says their cable broke about 700 km from Helsinki, east of the southern tip of the Öland island. That's easily over 150 km south from where the cables meet.

Also, C-Lion1 was reported broken at 4m, and the BCS cable at 10am the previous day.