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Germany's 49-euro ticket resulted in significant shift from road to rail

mcc-berlin.net

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Re: Germany's 49-euro ticket resulted in significant shift from road to rail

#681
post #503

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Funding road repairs, construction, and expansion from general tax revenues is similarly subsidizing a different mode of transit, and it's likely a much higher value than the 3b€ you mention (and likely more than overall railway sector subsidizing, tho I'm not familiar with Germany's budget). Also recognizing that other positive externalities exist, but pricing them at $0, seems silly.

Aren’t roads necessary from a “last mile” perspective for like, all sorts of things a functioning country needs? Last time I checked trains don’t run directly from farms to grocery stores and so we need trucks and therefore roads in order to get food to consumers, among other things.

> Aren’t roads necessary from a “last mile” perspective for like, all sorts of things a functioning country needs?

Yup, absolutely! But at least where I've worked on road design, the number of lanes on a local road is governed pretty much solely by the number of cars (trucks just have a larger impact on asphalt structure choices and, balance with the impacts of freeze-thaw, resurfacing schedule).

But this is about longer distance travel - trains generally being used for intercity travel vs highways. Even still, I don't argue against road subsidization, but rather in favour of more train subsidization.

Re: Germany's 49-euro ticket resulted in significant shift from road to rail

#682
post #675

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s arguable that $100 per ton is a real carbon price. It translates to about $1 a gallon tax on gasoline which is (a) not enough to change people’s behavior (at its peak gas was almost $2 more than it is now and I drove just the same) but (b) people in 2024 will complain bitterly about it anyway. That is, polities are hypersensitized to that sort of imposed solution right now: for a long time people in the US accep…

Not disagreeing but it’s important to point out that the US is a different beast because of the car and roadway dependency. In Europe a large part of the population lives in places easily reachable without a car. But in the US EVs are completely central to reducing CO2 from transportation, unless you’d rather rebuild the entire country. In Europe you can make meaningful changes by simply improving, expanding, investi…

When I spent a year in Dresden I greatly enjoyed using the train instead of the plane for travel around the area as far as London in one direction and Sunny Beach, Bulgaria in the other. I lived close enough to walk to work and could do a lot of shopping on foot (great bakery 2 blocks away, a fancy chocolate store, a butcher, etc.) but sometimes used the tram to go to the city center and to further out towns.

I was maybe 3-4 blocks from a regional rail or S-Bahn station which that ticket entitles you to ride and it is a great ticket that can get you to nearby mountains or the Czech Republic or nearby cities like Leipzig. Really you could ride across Germany on the S-Bahn comfortably stopping where you want and staying overnight in a hotel occasionally. Nothing beat those sleeper trains which eliminated the hotel stay then you wake up in Dortmund and change trains for Amsterdam.

(EMEA people in 1998 seemed more inclined to use airlines than rail to go to distant domestic and international cities, they had service that was better and cheaper than the US; air service has become even more competitive in EMEA since then)

Dresdenites I knew who had cars would drive them to the appliance and furniture stores and even to nearby places like Quedlinburg and even to Berlin, Munich, Bremen, etc. with a resignation to traffic jams like that of the Los Angelino.

Delivery service is far along in the US and I would expect a truck to deliver anything larger than 7 cubic feet of sawdust even on my farm so I don’t need a truck. I have 8 horses but no trailer because we know many people who will move a horse for us for less than a month’s payment on a big ass truck.

Re: Germany's 49-euro ticket resulted in significant shift from road to rail

#683

Providing these €49 tickets requires an annual subsidy of around €3bn, on top of already substantial subsidies for the rail industry. If we accept that it reduces carbon emissions by 6.7 million tonnes per year, then that works out to €447 per tonne. That really isn't good value - most carbon abatement methods cost well under $100 per tonne. I do recognise that modal shift towards rail may have other positive externa…

I do recognise that "X" may have other positive externalities, but I don't know how to price any of them.

Modern policy in a nutshell.

Re: Germany's 49-euro ticket resulted in significant shift from road to rail

#684

Earlier quoted context omitted.

From the article (sorry for the bad link before; fixed below [1]): > The revenue from taxes and levies on road traffic amounts to around 50 billion euros annually. Around half of this is earmarked by law via the mineral oil tax, i.e. around 25 billion euros. This means that just over a third (36%) of the earmarked revenue from road traffic covers the costs of roads and other facilities such as parking lots and the li…

I'm a bit baffled why Germany's numbers are so bad here. In the UK the government takes far more in revenue from drivers than it spends on the roads.

That's because the selection of numbers is a little bit weird. The 70 billion on the cost side are composed of 38 billion for construction and maintenance, 14 billion for traffic police and 18 billion for public funds spent for accidents. The generated income is only taxes on fuel and the tax car owners have to pay.

If you include the cost of the traffic police, there is way more stuff that you can include on the income side like taxes on car sales and part of the cost comes also back to the government in the form of taxes. There is likely also a large part of the costs that is missing. Doing this properly is a lot of work and doing it precisely is hard to impossible. These sort of things almost always include estimates for the higher order effects.

Btw: I googled the study[1] and apparently it was funded by the "Netzwerk Europäischer Eisenbahnen e.V." (Network of European Railways Association). I would take any statements and numbers with a huge grain of salt.

[1]: https://www.htw-berlin.de/forschung/online-forschungskatalog...

Re: Germany's 49-euro ticket resulted in significant shift from road to rail

#685
I don’t understand why, given that Germans are generally quite precise - German engineering and manufacturing is world-famous for a reason, why DBahn can’t get the trains to run on time. This isn’t Italy after all. The Swiss and Japanese manage to do it. Can someone explain?

Re: Germany's 49-euro ticket resulted in significant shift from road to rail

#686

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nobody said that. But if you're gonna spend the public money, you need some way of determining "how much are we willing to pay for this good thing".

> "how much are we willing to pay for this good thing" We don't even do that for cars. We shifted most of the transport cost to the individuals without any calculation. Nowadays, cars are the most costly item in a household besides the house itself, is that okay? I'm not so sure.

A car is an incredibly complex and incredibly useful machine. In a non-feudal banker run economy, a car would cost 5 times as much as a house. Or rather the house would be 5 times cheaper than the car.

Re: Germany's 49-euro ticket resulted in significant shift from road to rail

#687

I don’t understand why, given that Germans are generally quite precise - German engineering and manufacturing is world-famous for a reason, why DBahn can’t get the trains to run on time. This isn’t Italy after all. The Swiss and Japanese manage to do it. Can someone explain?

It's money. If you look at investement into the railway system per capita, Italy actually spends more on their railway system than Germany: https://www.allianz-pro-schiene.de/presse/pressemitteilungen...

Re: Germany's 49-euro ticket resulted in significant shift from road to rail

#688
post #501

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sure if you define terms in your own strict way you can write a long comment on how everybody else is using the term wrong. Why should people use your definition though?

That isn't "my definition". Left-wing ideologies inherently promote concepts like collectivist big government, high taxation, massive government spending, and government-controlled infrastructure. Right-wing ideologies, on the other hand, inherently promote individualism, minimal to no taxation, minimal to no government spending, and privately-controlled infrastructure. That's just the fundamental nature of a two-dim…

This is observably false. One observation is that the US government debt grows more quickly when the Republican party is in power.

What is true is that left-wing ideology promotes taking a bit from everyone to give a lot to everyone, while right-wing ideology does not promote giving a lot, or anything, to everyone, but often still promotes taking a bit, or a lot, from everyone and funneling it to places that do not benefit very many people.

Leftists will promote plans like: tax carbon emissions and use the money to subsidize clean power plants. Rightists will enact (without promoting) plans like: give a lot of taxpayer money to this company for unclear reasons, and don't worry about how to raise the money - make it the next government's problem to deal with the debt pile. The latter is, of course, individualist.

Re: Germany's 49-euro ticket resulted in significant shift from road to rail

#689

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is that a rigorous statistical analysis or just your impression?

Some people actually try these things... And not writing an academic paper about it doesn't make it wrong.

Not writing an academic paper about it doesn't make it right either. This is the problem, when it's just hearsay, the rest of us have nothing to judge its accuracy with.

When looking at something as complex as people's behaviour, then it's worth allowing for seasonal variations in public transport use (e.g. when it's raining people may decide to get the bus rather than walk). Could it be related to the length of their journeys and/or their net worth? (There's a strong correlation between health and wealth). How does it compare to a similar section of the population that drive or cycle instead?

Re: Germany's 49-euro ticket resulted in significant shift from road to rail

#690

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Destroying "degenerate" cultural institutions is very much right wing; so is giving taxpayer money to cronies; so is overloading the government with debt.

This entity you're describing clearly isn't "right wing" if it uses left-wing practices like taxation, public debt, and government-funded "cultural institutions" (whatever that actually means). Taxation is inherently a left-wing concept. Under right-wing ideologies, there would not be any taxpayer money to give "cronies" because such funds never would be collected from taxpayers in the first place. Public debt is inh…

US debt increases much faster when the right wing is in power. This is an empirical fact which trumps theory.
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