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Safe Superintelligence Inc.

ssi.inc

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Re: Safe Superintelligence Inc.

#681

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Social coordination problems exist within a specific set of constraints, and that set of constraints can itself be altered. For instance, climate change is often treated as a social coordination problem, but if you could produce enough energy cheaply enough, you could solve the greenhouse gas problem unilaterally.

OK, lets play this out. Lets say an AI discovers cold fusion. Given the fact that it would threaten to render extinct one of the largest global economic sectors (oil/gas), how long do you think it would take for it to actually see the light of day? We can't even wean ourselves off coal.

Play that out. How do you see that going? Some researcher post doc with access to ChatGPT-12 just casually asks "hey this thing that violates the laws of physics as we understand them, how could that work?", and ChatGPT-12 says "oh that's easy, just frobb the frozzonator", and the post doc just wanders over to Home Depot, grabs the parts to build a cold fusion plant to do that for $50 on a post doc's salary, but is killed by the evil agents of Big Coal on the drive back to the lab? How would that work?

Every idiot who doesn't understand the science and math behind fusion can now get ChatGPT-4o to give themselves an interactive review on the physics and practical reasons why cold fusion doesn't produce more power than you put in. (Muon-catalyzed fusion is a room temperature science thing we can do, but it won't produce power so it's relatively uninteresting).

If cold fusion were possible and a postdoc figured out how with the help of ChatGPT-12, they'd announce it on Threads, write a draft paper, run the theoretical physics past everyone will listen, everyone wound rush to replicate and confirm, or disprove the theory, funding would roll in when it was actually agreed to be theoretically possible, we'd build it, we'd have limitless power too cheap to meter, and then we'd argue over if ChatGPT-12 deserves the Nobel or the postdoc.

Cold fusion isn't being held back by Big Coal.

Re: Safe Superintelligence Inc.

#682
post #433

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Blaming the internet for misogyny is kind of bizarre, given that current levels of misogyny are within a couple points of all-time historical lows. The internet was invented ~40 years ago. Women started getting vote ~100 years ago. Do you think the internet has returned us to pre-women's-suffrage levels of misogyny?

Do you believe that no subfactor can ever have a sign opposite of the factor of which it is a component?

In general it can. In this specific case, I really struggle to see even a single dimension in which young boys are more misogynistic now than they were 2 decades ago. The original comment mentions Andrew Tate - in the early 2000s there was an entire genre of Andrew Tates called "pickup artists".

Re: Safe Superintelligence Inc.

#683
post #626

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> why are we talking about things like this? > this is such a transparent attention grab (and, by extension, money grab by being overvalued by investors and shareholders) Ilya believes transformers can be enough to achieve superintelligence (if inefficiently). He is concerned that companies like OpenAI are going to succeed at doing it without investing in safety, and they're going to unleash a demon in the process. I…

His paycheck is already dependent on people believing this world view. It’s important to not lose sight of that.

I mean I think he can write his own ticket. If he said "AGI is possible but not with autoregressive approaches" he could still get funding. People want to get behind whatever he is gonna work on. But a certain amount of hype about his work is needed for funding, yes.

Re: Safe Superintelligence Inc.

#684

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This goes massively against the consensus of experts in this field. The modal AI researcher believes that "high-level machine intelligence", roughly AGI, will be achieved by 2047, per the survey below. Given the rapid pace of development in this field, it's likely that timelines would be shorter if this were asked today. https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2024/1/10/24032987/ai-imp...

51% odds of the ARC AGI Grand Prize being claimed by the end of next year, on Manifold Markets. https://manifold.markets/JacobPfau/will-the-arcagi-grand-pri...

This could also just be an indication (and I think this is the case) that many Manifold betters believe the ARC AGI Grand Prize to be not a great test of AGI and that it can be solved with something less capable than AGI.

Re: Safe Superintelligence Inc.

#685

SSI, a very interesting name for a company advancing AI! "Solid State Intelligence" or SSI was also the name of the malevolent entity described in the biography of John C. Lilly [0][1]. It was a network of "computers" (computation-capable solid state systems) that was first engineered by humans and then developed into something autonomous. [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_C._Lilly [1] http://johnclilly.com/

For me, SSI stands for "Scuba Schools International" and who certified me to scuba dive.

Re: Safe Superintelligence Inc.

#686
post #566

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What's the connection between LLMs and AlphaGo?

They both use deep learning and gradient descent. Also both were made possible by availability of GPUs.

I'm aware of that, but I don't think this immediately lends itself to a prognosis of the form "LLMs and AlphaGo are deep learning neural networks running on GPUs; AlphaGo was tremendously successful in chess => LLMs will soon surpass humans".

I can consider the possibility that something coming out of GPU-based neural networks might one day surpass humans in intelligence, but I also believe there's reason to doubt it will be based on today's LLM architecture.

Re: Safe Superintelligence Inc.

#687
Recently saw an interview of yann lecun that really dismissed the idea of using llm for building « true » intelligence. He even encouraged phds to NOT do their research on that tech but rather on what’s coming after.

How should one reconcile this with what iliya is doing atm ? Is he planning on working using some other tech ?

Re: Safe Superintelligence Inc.

#688
post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I have a strong intuition that chat logs are actually the most useful kind of data. They contain many LLM outputs followed by implicit or explicit feedback, from humans, from the real world, and from code execution. Scaling this feedback to 180M users and 1 trillion interactive tokens per month like OpenAI is a big deal.

Except LLMs are a distraction from AGI

Well, Ilya doesn't think that. He's firmly in the Hinton camp, not the Lecun camp.

Re: Safe Superintelligence Inc.

#689

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I wonder how many people panicking about these things have ever visited a data centre. They have big red buttons at the end of every pod. Shuts everything down. They have bigger red buttons at the end of every power unit. Shuts everything down. And down at the city, there’s a big red button at the biggest power unit. Shuts everything down. Having arms and legs is going to be a significant benefit for some time yet. I…

Trouble is, in practice what you would need to do might be “turn off all of Google’s datacenters”. Or perhaps the thing manages to secure compute in multiple clouds (which is what I’d do if I woke up as an entity running on a single DC with a big red power button on it). The blast radius of such decisions are large enough that this option is not trivial as you suggest.

Right, but when we’ve literally invented a superintelligence that we’re worried will eliminate the race,

a) we’ve done that, which is cool. Now let’s figure out how to control it.

b) you can’t get your gmail for a bit while we reboot the DC. That’s probably okay.

Re: Safe Superintelligence Inc.

#690
post #687

Recently saw an interview of yann lecun that really dismissed the idea of using llm for building « true » intelligence. He even encouraged phds to NOT do their research on that tech but rather on what’s coming after. How should one reconcile this with what iliya is doing atm ? Is he planning on working using some other tech ?

The easiest way to reconcile it is that Yann LeCunn is consistently wrong in the predictions he makes about this field and he's wrong here too.
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