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Waymo: Google's self-driving car company

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Re: Waymo: Google's self-driving car company

#681

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Viable for what, exactly? It is very clear that autopilot will be a successful feature and we can reasonably expect continued improvement in human-driver-assist technologies for years to come. But people keep on handwaving past the very important gap between "automation which assists a human operator" and "autonomous vehicle which gets around on its own", as though doing well at the first problem necessarily makes th…

>Viable for what, exactly? Sales. That's what makes a viable product. One that will sell. Despite elsewhere in this comment chain you saying "I'm talking about product viability not technical" I can't help but think that your response to me was about technical viability. People are already willing to buy and trust their cars to drive for them right now, when they're specifically being told "don't trust it to drive fo…

If "self-driving car" just means "I'll drive for you, most of the time, while you sit behind the wheel", then we are talking about nothing more than a better automobile. Of course that will sell, but in that case the world of the future looks pretty much the same as the world of today, with fewer crashes.

But people keep talking about "self-driving car" as though it is going to be a robot capable of running errands on its own, with no human driver and not even necessarily any human passenger. The question is still open: can this be done well enough, enough of the time, solving a valuable enough class of problems, that producing such car-shaped robots will actually become a significant industry? Furthermore, will the problems solved by such hypothetical car-shaped robots be significant and widespread enough to justify the hype currently being lavished on them?

Re: Waymo: Google's self-driving car company

#682

I'm interested to see where all the major players end up in 5yrs: • Tesla bootstrapping a ride service on the backs of buyers • Waymo directly rolling their own fleet • Uber trying to get a self-driving fleet up, burning mountains of money to maintain their "monopoly" on Uber for rides • Lyft working with GM to get a fleet up • All of the other car manufacturers trying to get autonomous vehicles going, presumably hop…

You've mentioned $1 a ride a couple of times. Where is this number coming from? It doesn't pass the smell test to me. Even bus fare is several times this amount.

Let's do some rough math here.

Say initial cost of the electric self driving car is $50,000. It has life of 20 years. After 20 years, value will go to 0.

Per year: $2500

Service per year: $2500 (HN mechanics, is this reasonable?)

Miles travelled/ year: 50,000 (5x human utilization)

Miles/Kwh: 3 (based on tesla efficiency)

Avg electricity cost in US: 12c / Kwh

Cost to drive 50,000 miles: $2000

Total / year: $7000

Cost per mile: 14c / mile

Average trip length: 7 miles

Cost per trip: 98c (very close to $1)

I think this is definitely possible.

Re: Waymo: Google's self-driving car company

#683
post #606
post #581

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's a definition in the census. I find it somewhat disappointing to see such a dismissive response when the answer is so easy to find. Here's a link to the definitions of urban and rural: https://www.census.gov/geo/reference/gtc/gtc_urbanrural.html Here's the 2010 figures for the split between the urban and rural: https://www.census.gov/geo/reference/ua/urban-rural-2010.htm...

I think the point was that the "urban area" definition in the census was quite broad. I live in an "urban area" on a decent plot of land with a Christmas tree farm on one side and a working farm/apple orchard on the other. Probably not what most people think of as urban.

My parent's house has an orange orchard in front of it, a wilderness area behind it, but Uber rides from downtown are still only $11, and everyone I know who lives in that town now uses Uber instead of driving. DUIs are way down. Nightlife is better, etc. etc. This is a very real 'urban' situation.

Re: Waymo: Google's self-driving car company

#684

I'm interested to see where all the major players end up in 5yrs: • Tesla bootstrapping a ride service on the backs of buyers • Waymo directly rolling their own fleet • Uber trying to get a self-driving fleet up, burning mountains of money to maintain their "monopoly" on Uber for rides • Lyft working with GM to get a fleet up • All of the other car manufacturers trying to get autonomous vehicles going, presumably hop…

> Also: Private car ownership is going to fall off a cliff shortly after autonomous ride services arrive. Which probably means general demand for vehicles will fall off a cliff. I've seen this sentiment so many times now that I have to ask a serious question to anyone who echoes this sentiment: Do you own a personal car right now? If so, why? All of this... excitement over the transformations that self-driving vehicl…

Honestly, I would love to have my own self-driving car that integrates with home robotics.

Imagine you leave your laptop at home... Just get your car to drive home, receive it robotically, and bring it to your location before your next meeting!

It would work just like Uber (even better), only you would own it. Every delivery company would be out of a ride the moment your car can go make restaurant pickups.

Re: Waymo: Google's self-driving car company

#685

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Viable for what, exactly? Sales. That's what makes a viable product. One that will sell. Despite elsewhere in this comment chain you saying "I'm talking about product viability not technical" I can't help but think that your response to me was about technical viability. People are already willing to buy and trust their cars to drive for them right now, when they're specifically being told "don't trust it to drive fo…

If "self-driving car" just means "I'll drive for you, most of the time, while you sit behind the wheel", then we are talking about nothing more than a better automobile. Of course that will sell, but in that case the world of the future looks pretty much the same as the world of today, with fewer crashes. But people keep talking about "self-driving car" as though it is going to be a robot capable of running errands o…

Meeting the hype expectations of people who practically worship technological change is a pretty high and imo unreasonable bar for viable product.

Personally I'm of the opinion that because we've been making tools for 2.5 million years and don't seem any happier than the average animal, the very concept of a new tool making all that much of a difference is absurd.

Re: Waymo: Google's self-driving car company

#686
post #43
post #39

This repels me for a few reasons: - Instead of talking about their car's capabilities on the front page, they include a pathos about drunk driving. I feel embarrassed how Google doesn't have more things to say about the car. - It looks really unattractive, I could hardly call it cute. - It's not in production, it's in testing. These companies are sitting on mountains of cash! And they still fail to do things effectiv…

They've told you exactly what matters to them: not sexy cars, not the kinds of technology used, but the goal they have in mind. Tesla, by comparison, is building sexy fast cars that happen to be self-driving.

And Tesla's "Self-Driving" autopilot already has one attributed death. Google has a few fender-benders...

Re: Waymo: Google's self-driving car company

#687
post #633

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And if you're going 70 down a busy interstate?

The number of times that "you can't stop / brake / slow because someone behind you will run into you" comes up in these threads is always alarmingly high.

Indeed, it reminds of this article, which thankfully didn't end up killing anyone:

https://www.wired.com/2015/07/hackers-remotely-kill-jeep-hig...

Re: Waymo: Google's self-driving car company

#688

How is this news? So what, they slapped a new name on the project. What about actual progress on the tech? Honestly, with Google's track record, I'm starting to doubt that this will ever ship. It just seems like a huge marketing tactic at this point. Plus. all of the talent has moved to companies like Otto and comma.ai; who are making tangible progress in this space.

I had thinking the same thing when I saw 600+ comments. I thought they announced L5 along with the spun out.

Re: Waymo: Google's self-driving car company

#689
post #684

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Also: Private car ownership is going to fall off a cliff shortly after autonomous ride services arrive. Which probably means general demand for vehicles will fall off a cliff. I've seen this sentiment so many times now that I have to ask a serious question to anyone who echoes this sentiment: Do you own a personal car right now? If so, why? All of this... excitement over the transformations that self-driving vehicl…

Honestly, I would love to have my own self-driving car that integrates with home robotics. Imagine you leave your laptop at home... Just get your car to drive home, receive it robotically, and bring it to your location before your next meeting! It would work just like Uber (even better), only you would own it. Every delivery company would be out of a ride the moment your car can go make restaurant pickups.

Well, if you have home robotics, what stops you from hiring a self driving service to fetch the laptop for you.

Re: Waymo: Google's self-driving car company

#690

I'm interested to see where all the major players end up in 5yrs: • Tesla bootstrapping a ride service on the backs of buyers • Waymo directly rolling their own fleet • Uber trying to get a self-driving fleet up, burning mountains of money to maintain their "monopoly" on Uber for rides • Lyft working with GM to get a fleet up • All of the other car manufacturers trying to get autonomous vehicles going, presumably hop…

> Also: Private car ownership is going to fall off a cliff shortly after autonomous ride services arrive. Which probably means general demand for vehicles will fall off a cliff. I've seen this sentiment so many times now that I have to ask a serious question to anyone who echoes this sentiment: Do you own a personal car right now? If so, why? All of this... excitement over the transformations that self-driving vehicl…

> Do you own a personal car right now? If so, why?

Yes.

There isn't a reliable taxi service or public transportation in most suburbs. Even if you have Uber in your town, it's much more expensive than owning/leasing a personal car.

I can't use Uber when I need to go to another town 50 miles away or 500 miles away.

Autonomous ride service could change that.

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