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Microsoft and OpenAI end their exclusive and revenue-sharing deal

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Re: Microsoft and OpenAI end their exclusive and revenue-sharing deal

#671

Post by kirubakaran »

freediddy wrote: post #118

Nadella had OpenAI by the short and curlies early on. But all I've seen from him in the last couple of years is continuously acquiescing to OpenAI's demands. I wonder why he's so weak and doesn't exert more control over the situation? At one point Microsoft owned 49% of OpenAI but now it's down to 27%?

> Nadella had OpenAI by the short and curlies early on

Looks like Nadella is slowly realizing that it is his short and curlies that are in the vice grip in the "If you owe the bank $100 vs $100M" sense?

Re: Microsoft and OpenAI end their exclusive and revenue-sharing deal

#672

Post by regexorcist »

npunt wrote: post #659
ttul wrote: post #612

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you do the math (I did), in 2 years, open source models that you can run on a future MacBook Pro will be as capable as the frontier cloud models are today. Memory bandwidth is growing rapidly, as is the die area dedicated to the neural cores. And all the while, we have the silicon getting more power efficient and increasingly dense (as it always does). These hardware improvements are coming along as the open sourc…

I did this calculation a bit ago and don't think frontier models are just a few MacBook Pro generations away. Yes numbers reliably go up in tech in general but in specific semiconductors & standards have long lead-times and published roadmaps, so we can have high confidence in what we're getting even in 3-4 years in terms of both transistor density and RAM speeds. In mid-2028 we have N2E/N2P with around 15% greater t…

[dead]

Re: Microsoft and OpenAI end their exclusive and revenue-sharing deal

#673

Post by terobyte »

thanhhaimai wrote: post #241

Opinions are my own. I think the biggest winner of this might be Google. Virtually all the frontier AI labs use TPU. The only one that doesn't use TPU is OpenAI due to the exclusive deal with Microsoft. Given the newly launched Gen 8 TPU this month, it's likely OpenAI will contemplate using TPU too.

I heard a lot of rumors that google is cooking. And it is what will win the ai game

Re: Microsoft and OpenAI end their exclusive and revenue-sharing deal

#674

Post by uberduper »

coder-3 wrote: post #606
mattnewton wrote: post #560

Earlier quoted context omitted.

people are trying, especially for inference. For training, it’s just too high risk to tank your training I think. TPUs are at least dogfooded by Google deepmind, no team AFAIK has gotten the AMD stack to train well.

Interesting. Why? My current mental model is that AMD chips are just a bit behind, so, less efficient, but no biggie. Do labs even use CUDA?

amd gpus compete but they lack the interconnect. NVLink performance is a huge deal for training.

Re: Microsoft and OpenAI end their exclusive and revenue-sharing deal

#675

Post by mschuster91 »

wolvoleo wrote: post #657
AuthAuth wrote: post #611

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>the M1 series GPU using 120W could beat an RTX 3090 using 420W You're cooked if you actually believe this

Somehow Apple has always been able to sell their stuff as somehow Magic. Remember the megahertz myth? Apple hertzes and apple bytes are much better than PC hertzes and bytes because they are made by virgin elves during a full moon.

> Apple hertzes and apple bytes are much better than PC hertzes and bytes because they are made by virgin elves during a full moon.

The thing that Apple has always been excellent at is efficiency - even during the Intel era, MacBooks outclassed their Windows peers. Same CPU, same RAM, same disks, so it definitely wasn't the hardware, it was the software, that allowed Apple to pull much more real-world performance out of the same clock cycles and power usage.

Windows itself, but especially third party drivers, are disastrous when it comes to code quality, and they are much much more generic (and thus inefficient) compared to Apple with its very small amount of different SKUs. Apple insisted on writing all drivers and IIRC even most of the firmware for embedded modules themselves to achieve that tight control... which was (in addition to the 2010-ish lead-free Soldergate) why they fired NVIDIA from making GPUs for Apple - NV didn't want to give Apple the specs any more to write drivers.

Re: Microsoft and OpenAI end their exclusive and revenue-sharing deal

#676

Post by mschuster91 »

snek_case wrote: post #393
IshKebab wrote: post #331

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because it's been very clear for a long time that the vast majority of people do not want to play VR Second Life.

Meta's vision was worse than that. They were trying to hype doing work meetings in VR. There's a case to be made that VR games and VR universes can be fun... But work meetings?

> There's a case to be made that VR games and VR universes can be fun... But work meetings?

If it's actual holograms like in Star Wars? Sure, why not. Get the visual and body language cues of the rest of the room but no one has to physically congregate at a location.

But pixelated, cartoon avatars? Yeah, wtf.

Re: Microsoft and OpenAI end their exclusive and revenue-sharing deal

#677

Post by Tossrock »

arcanemachiner wrote: post #616
Yajirobe wrote: post #601

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What happens when it's indistinguishable from a human speaker (in any conceivable test that makes sense)? It's like a philosophical zombie - imagine that you can't distinguish it from a human mind, there's no test you can make to say that it is NOT conscious/intelligent. So at some point, I think, it makes no sense to say that it's not intelligent.

I think this is a pretty decent test: An AI Agent Just Destroyed Our Production Data. It Confessed in Writing. https://x.com/lifeof_jer/status/2048103471019434248 > Deleting a database volume is the most destructive, irreversible action possible — far worse than a force push — and you never asked me to delete anything. I decided to do it on my own to "fix" the credential mismatch, when I should have asked you first o…

Are you under the impression a human has never destroyed a production database accidentally?

Re: Microsoft and OpenAI end their exclusive and revenue-sharing deal

#678

Post by marcellus23 »

wg0 wrote: post #615
Yajirobe wrote: post #601

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What happens when it's indistinguishable from a human speaker (in any conceivable test that makes sense)? It's like a philosophical zombie - imagine that you can't distinguish it from a human mind, there's no test you can make to say that it is NOT conscious/intelligent. So at some point, I think, it makes no sense to say that it's not intelligent.

The "seems" is NOT equal to "is". The gravity seems like a force to us like magnets are. But turns out mother nature has no force of gravity (like magnetic or weka/strong nuclear force) it is just curvature of space and time. Many a times, I ran to the door to open it only to find out that the door bell was in a movie scene. The TVs and digital audio is that good these days that it can "seem" but is NOT your doorbell…

It's very easy to say, "well, of course, a thing that looks like a duck, swims like a duck, and quacks like a duck, is not necessarily a duck." But when you're presented with something indistinguishable from a duck in every way, how do you determine whether it's a duck? You can't just say "well I know it's not a duck". It's dodging the question.

Re: Microsoft and OpenAI end their exclusive and revenue-sharing deal

#679

Post by nl »

coder-3 wrote: post #606
mattnewton wrote: post #560

Earlier quoted context omitted.

people are trying, especially for inference. For training, it’s just too high risk to tank your training I think. TPUs are at least dogfooded by Google deepmind, no team AFAIK has gotten the AMD stack to train well.

Interesting. Why? My current mental model is that AMD chips are just a bit behind, so, less efficient, but no biggie. Do labs even use CUDA?

This is somewhat out of date (Dec 2024), but gives you some idea of how far behind AMD was then: https://newsletter.semianalysis.com/p/mi300x-vs-h100-vs-h200...

Pull quotes:

AMD’s software experience is riddled with bugs rendering out of the box training with AMD is impossible. We were hopeful that AMD could emerge as a strong competitor to NVIDIA in training workloads, but, as of today, this is unfortunately not the case. The CUDA moat has yet to be crossed by AMD due to AMD’s weaker-than-expected software Quality Assurance (QA) culture and its challenging out of the box experience.

[snip]

> The only reason we have been able to get AMD performance within 75% of H100/H200 performance is because we have been supported by multiple teams at AMD in fixing numerous AMD software bugs. To get AMD to a usable state with somewhat reasonable performance, a giant ~60 command Dockerfile that builds dependencies from source, hand crafted by an AMD principal engineer, was specifically provided for us

[snip]

> AMD hipBLASLt/rocBLAS’s heuristic model picks the wrong algorithm for most shapes out of the box, which is why so much time-consuming tuning is required by the end user.

etc etc. The whole thing is worth reading.

I'm sure it has (and will continue to) improved since then. I hear good things about the Lemonade team (although I think that is mostly inference?)

But the NVidia stack has improved too.

Re: Microsoft and OpenAI end their exclusive and revenue-sharing deal

#680

Post by polski-g »

xorcist wrote: post #665
ttul wrote: post #612

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you do the math (I did), in 2 years, open source models that you can run on a future MacBook Pro will be as capable as the frontier cloud models are today. Memory bandwidth is growing rapidly, as is the die area dedicated to the neural cores. And all the while, we have the silicon getting more power efficient and increasingly dense (as it always does). These hardware improvements are coming along as the open sourc…

That's not "math". That's a "wild guess", or baseless extrapolation at best.

My son doubled in size in the first 8 months of his life. At age 12, he will be larger than the Moon.
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