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F-35 is built for the wrong war

warontherocks.com

671–680 of 719 posts

Re: F-35 is built for the wrong war

#671
post #642

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Satellites aren't pointed at "all parts of the planet". They're generally taking regular photos of known locations, when the right type of satellite passes over. That's where you get lucky shots like the one you noticed. Then that satellite has to orbit, and there isn't another one nearby just ready to take another photo. Then the carrier changes direction...

Now I’m contemplating just how small and light of an instrument could be carried on a Starlink-style satellite that could detect a large ship. A smallish COTS telescope, e.g. a Celestron 8SE ($1700 retail) could easily see a ship from the Starlink constellation altitude. Never mind that the Starlink radio arrays are, well, radio arrays that quite effectively cover the whole planet. If you think of each satellite as a…

Seeing it isn't the issue. Scanning the oceans is the issue.

Carrier groups also don't emit radio when they aren't interested in being detected!

Re: F-35 is built for the wrong war

#672
post #79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think the insight is that you need a high-low mix. Some threats call for top of the line capabilities (like early days of the Iran conflict with stand-off munitions and top-spec interceptors being used against Shahed drones and cheap cruise missiles). Some threats can be more economically serviced by a less capable, cheaper, and more available system.

Ukraine is using old school propeller trainer craft to shoot down some of the slower Russian drones. https://theaviationist.com/2024/06/26/ukrainian-yak-52-kill-... There's usually new footage of this every week on social media. Don't really see or hear about the USA building or using propeller driven planes in military outside of special ops.

There's a very interesting fallacy at play here. It's true that Ukraine is doing absolutely amazing and ingenious things on a shoestring budget across all military domains. It's also true that the armed forces of other world powers have a lot to learn from them, especially when it comes to drone warfare.

The fallacy comes in when blindly transferring these lessons to other wars and other armies.

In a perfect world with unlimited production and budgets, Ukraine would love to use Patriot or SAMP/T to shoot down every slow moving drone. In the real world, they make do with what they have, because the alternative is defeat and annihilation.

Ukraine is using propeller trainer planes to shoot down Russian drones because they have them and they can be quickly modified for the mission. That doesn't mean that an air force starting with a clean slate would prefer to use a cheap propeller plane in an anti-drone role. Instead, given enough time and budget, they'd probably prefer to build a custom-designed, more expensive and more capable solution, which still lands in a better spot on the shot exchange curve than Patriot vs Shahed. Think interceptor drone (which are usually several times more expensive and capable than their targets, but that's air defense) or 21st century gun systems.

Ukraine is a post Soviet state with a huge stockpile, engaged in a drawn out attritional defensive conflict where neither side has claimed air superiority. They have no choice but to be efficient, and to make everything they have go as far as they can. From an economic point of view, the USA can afford to be less efficient when fighting into Iran.

For the USA, shot exchange as an economic problem is mostly theoretical. The real problem is supply exhaustion. It doesn't matter if the air defense interceptors cost $10,000 or $10,000,000 if the total stockpile and yearly production capacity of them is only enough to fight for 3 months.

Re: F-35 is built for the wrong war

#673
post #79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think the insight is that you need a high-low mix. Some threats call for top of the line capabilities (like early days of the Iran conflict with stand-off munitions and top-spec interceptors being used against Shahed drones and cheap cruise missiles). Some threats can be more economically serviced by a less capable, cheaper, and more available system.

I mean the armed forces already know this well. They have a bunch of units of regular soldiers, and then they have a few special forces units.

The armed forces know this well but many of the internet commentators do not. Many have over-learned the lesson from Ukraine, going all the way from "drones are an important (and even potentially dominant) new tool of warfare" to "everything more expensive than a drone is a huge waste of money - just buy more drones". The real world is rarely so simple.

There are strategic winners and losers of a drone dominated world, just like there were when the machine gun or the airplane began to dominate combat. Calvary charges did not play a major role in WWII for a good reason. I would guess that the F-35 (and in general, fast stealthy attack jets) will continue to deliver a lot of value even in a world with drones. Think more like destroyer and less battleship or horse.

If you made me guess which systems would become obsolete as a result of this, my first guess would probably be attack helicopters. Much of their role can be filled by other less expensive and less vulnerable systems.

Re: F-35 is built for the wrong war

#674
post #654

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Respectfully, the problem is not incompetence or bureaucracy. There's plenty of each in the military but they are only symptoms. I like the Stanford Beer quote - "The purpose of a system is what it does". What does the current defense acquisition system reliably produce? Obscene amounts of money for the defense contractors, campaign contributions for politicians, promotions and well-paid private sector careers for th…

Seems to be jobs program. I ended up in defense after a year of being out of work and while all the new grads were desperate and destitute, we were steadily hiring new juniors out of school. I’ve heard stories from years ago about some of the waste being protected because it we weren’t producing tanks in excess of what we need, some small town in Ohio would lose a ton of jobs and their congressmen his job.

Outside of wartime, yes these are jobs programs. If we stop, we lose the know-how, man-power, and facilities. Starting back up becomes expensive, time consuming, and potentially impossible on the time scales required. That does not bode well for a war you're involved in.

Re: F-35 is built for the wrong war

#675
post #75

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Shot exchange is indeed a problem, but it's far more complex than this makes it sound. The opportunity cost of _not_ shooting down the drone isn't the cost of the drone, it's the cost of whatever it's going to destroy if you don't shoot it down. Sometimes it makes sense to use a million dollar missile to destroy a $5,000 drone, if that drone would otherwise destroy an even more expensive air defense radar or energy p…

I disagree on air defense inherently being very costly. Old school was guns. Price per round was cheap. But the expensive missile kills the platform holding the cheap gun, you have to go with missiles. But the drone war is a different beast entirely. Drones can't shoot back. Thus the answer is guns. How well will their light drones fare against a Cessna armed with an automatic shotgun? How would the jet drones fare a…

IMO, modern sensors paired with robot controlled guns are one of the most promising hard kill solutions for drone combat. Gepard and the newer Skyranger 30 have proven themselves against low-spec threats in Ukraine. C-RAM (aka Land Phalanx Weapon System) is an already deployed system that is very effective against even higher spec threats like missiles.

Of course, there are always tradeoffs. Even the best guns have much shorter ranges than air defense missiles, and that means you need more systems to provide the same area coverage. As you mentioned, the guns themselves (and the sensors and networks feeding them) become a target.

As usual though, likely the solution will require a mix of capabilities across the spectrum, working to cover each others' weaknesses. Nothing is fool-proof, but all can force costly adaptations. Take EW for example. Nothing is cheaper than jamming out the drone's comms or nav. This forces adaptation to autonomy or fiber optic drones, which have their own costs, supply pinch points (Russia now consumes somewhere around 10% of the world's fiber, for example), and tradeoffs.

This is nothing new - layered air defense has been around a long time. The new thing is the explosion of cheap, low-spec threats forcing development of a cheap and sustainable answer to them.

Nets, EW, beam weapons, gun systems, interceptor drones, AMRAAM, Patriot, SAMP/T, etc etc... all fill an important role in targeting different threats.

Re: F-35 is built for the wrong war

#676
post #603

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The problem with killing a carrier is not finding it. They're not difficult to spot and not very stealthy. They're massive. The only real problem with killing carrier is getting close. They're constantly protected by a fleet and a small air force whose primary purpose is to protect the carrier.

> The problem with killing a carrier is not finding it. They're not difficult to spot and not very stealthy. They're massive. The only real problem with killing carrier is getting close. They're constantly protected by a fleet and a small air force whose primary purpose is to protect the carrier. The pacific ocean is over 60 million square miles. A full sized carrier group probably takes up like 100 square miles when…

Exactly my point: getting close is the hard part.

Re: F-35 is built for the wrong war

#677

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You don't recruit them, you draft them.

Thank god I'm too old. Although I suppose you're never too old for a human wave assault...

Laws are mutable.

Men aged 25 to 60 are subject to conscription under martial law in Ukraine.

Yugoslavia did the same in the 30s, conscripting everyone 21 to 50 before turning Communist.

Japan widened it to 18 to 60 by the time they lost WWII.

Re: F-35 is built for the wrong war

#678

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Some quick Googling implies China has satellites capable of tracking shipping via radar from geostationary orbit. I'm not really convinced that aircraft carriers can hide these days?

Those satellites KNOW where the freighters are going, and check in every day on progress. They aren't looking for something that's intentionally sailing in an unpredictable direction (with no radio emissions in wartime).

Why not? It's not exactly hard? The exact capabilities aren't public, but there are companies that provide daily synthetic radar captures for the whole globe and similarly companies that do this for imagery. It would take ages but I think you and I could both right an algorithm to classify if an image or high map has an aircraft carrier in it? Even if you can't get data for the whole globe taking a photo of a 10 mile of ocean every 10 minutes and shifting the center based on where a boat isn't hard. There aren't that many aircraft carriers. Aircraft carriers and tanks are both capable machines built and designed for a different environment than we have now. They can still be useful. Most countries don't have the ability to image the whole globe or lob weapons across an ocean, but I'm pretty skeptical they'd survive long in a war with say China

Re: F-35 is built for the wrong war

#679
post #664
post #615

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Doubt it. The sea states tend to be higher around Taiwan.

There are semi- and fully submersible variants on the way, that can stay underwater for prolonged periods of time! Sea Baby is growing into quite a few different things over the months.

The submersible drones are quite slow, and require significant support from external sensor platforms. They're useful for defending or denying constrained areas but they can't do much to protect a Chinese invasion fleet near Taiwan.

Re: F-35 is built for the wrong war

#680

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>because you don't know the location in the first place Do you seriously think China doesn't track US carrier movements?

Do you seriously think the US Navy doesn't avoid Chinese tracking? What kind of a question is that? Like, there's probably a magazine that lists the cruising destinations of most of the carriers, what ports they're going to stop at next, etc, because, you know, they're not at war and trying to maintain secrecy.

> Do you seriously think the US Navy doesn't avoid Chinese tracking?

How would they avoid having a Chinese satellite continuously track their movement? They have the capability to do that, there is nothing USA can do about it except shoot down all the Chinese satelites.

https://defencesecurityasia.com/en/china-three-satellites-tr...

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