Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

wilsoniumite.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

671–680 of 697 posts

Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

#671

Post by kilroy123 »

somenameforme wrote: post #329
SllX wrote: post #255

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sure, and in 1992 it was 46%, and in 2000 it was 71% and in 2013 it was 61%. USD foreign exchange reserves have definitely declined from their peak, but by “declined” we’re talking about going from “overwhelmingly dominant” to “merely dominant” to potentially in a few years “equal to every other foreign currency reserve in the world combined”, and maybe USD foreign exchange reserves will decline even further beyond t…

There's some major historical events here. It's not just random movement. Here is a sort of visualization of key points and the USD share of global reserves with the events attached. The number in percent is the USD share of global reserves. 1970 (85%) - Up until 1971 [1] the USD was backed by gold by the Bretton Woods system. Other countries could trade USD in for gold at a fixed rate and in exchange would peg their…

Also see: https://wtfhappened2012.com

Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

#672

Post by Braxton1980 »

AnthonyMouse wrote: post #444
Braxton1980 wrote: post #374

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Market economy The recent massive increase in the US governments direct and indirect involvement in business decisions changes things. Trump is pushing/forcing countries and companies to invest in the US. He's added more restrictions on who they can sell their products. New significant widespread tariffs also exist that forces businesses to decide on how they can handle it while being pressured not to raise prices.…

> Government involvement in business decisions, even if indirect, is not a market economy. In a true market economy supply and demand should determine prices and businesses and consumers make the decisions on their respective side. This is true but not a novelty. The US has been doing all kinds of things to harm its markets for decades, e.g. artificially constraining the housing supply, using tax incentives and manip…

>You can't say we're importing the best and brightest

I didn't say that and it's about the amount.

>from scratch in order to be a doctor in the US>>>

Usually no, they have to complete a residency. They are repeating some but it's not starting from scratch and it's probably done to sure about their quality.

If you think it should be changed to make it easier for people to come over that's fine. However this isn't a counter argument to Trump reducing the amount of intelligent and valuable people coming in. I'm not even sure why you mentioned this, it only makes your support of Trump's actions more confusing because it shows me your additional concern about losing innovative, intelligent immigrants

Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

#673

Post by Braxton1980 »

AnthonyMouse wrote: post #444
Braxton1980 wrote: post #374

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Market economy The recent massive increase in the US governments direct and indirect involvement in business decisions changes things. Trump is pushing/forcing countries and companies to invest in the US. He's added more restrictions on who they can sell their products. New significant widespread tariffs also exist that forces businesses to decide on how they can handle it while being pressured not to raise prices.…

> Government involvement in business decisions, even if indirect, is not a market economy. In a true market economy supply and demand should determine prices and businesses and consumers make the decisions on their respective side. This is true but not a novelty. The US has been doing all kinds of things to harm its markets for decades, e.g. artificially constraining the housing supply, using tax incentives and manip…

>And then people will have much to criticize about what Trump is doing. But okay then, so do something better instead of all the doing nothing that was happening before.

I'm not in power and unlikely to ever be. I can criticize others actions even if I don't have a solution because doing nothing is better than making it worse.

The average person in the US has a living standard higher than the vast majority of the world.

There's no need to make radical changes without careful study as if it's an emergency.

The reason people feel the need to do this is manipulation by the Republican party and it's media supporters that makes people believe their lives are far worse than they actually are compared to other countries.

Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

#674

Post by AnthonyMouse »

Braxton1980 wrote: post #673
AnthonyMouse wrote: post #444

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Government involvement in business decisions, even if indirect, is not a market economy. In a true market economy supply and demand should determine prices and businesses and consumers make the decisions on their respective side. This is true but not a novelty. The US has been doing all kinds of things to harm its markets for decades, e.g. artificially constraining the housing supply, using tax incentives and manip…

>And then people will have much to criticize about what Trump is doing. But okay then, so do something better instead of all the doing nothing that was happening before. I'm not in power and unlikely to ever be. I can criticize others actions even if I don't have a solution because doing nothing is better than making it worse. The average person in the US has a living standard higher than the vast majority of the wor…

> I can criticize others actions even if I don't have a solution because doing nothing is better than making it worse.

Sometimes it isn't. Sometimes messing up the status quo forces people to then go back and fix it properly and you ultimately get a better result than doing nothing.

> The average person in the US has a living standard higher than the vast majority of the world.

~20% of people in the US have a net worth of zero or negative. Housing costs are unsustainably increasing faster than wages:

https://www.statista.com/chart/34534/median-house-price-vers...

This prevents family formation because young people can't afford a home. A similar trend exists for healthcare costs.

The US is now spending about as much on debt service as on the military.

The social security "trust fund" is soon to run out and everybody is ignoring it because none of the solutions are fun.

These are actual problems. "It's worse in Afghanistan" is a nonsense reason for not fixing them.

Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

#675

Post by Eridrus »

mmaunder wrote: post #522

What is different about this time is how much a crash is expected, which is reflected in the run up in the gold price, for one. It’s also reflected in the public discourse about the high probability of a crash - as with this post and many others over the past couple years. 2008 was sudden and unexpected by most. The dot com crash was sudden and unexpected by most. If we crashed today it would have been expected by mo…

Can an anticipated crash even happen?

If you anticipate it, it means you start pricing it in, which means the price is not high enough to crash.

I think many people understands there is a huge capital investment going into AI right now that is speculative and could blow up, but nobody actually knows if its going to pay off or not and everyone just defaults to their personality on how they process this risk.

If you think that everyone thinks a crash is imminent, you need to expand your social circle. Someone is buying the other side of these trades.

I don't know how any self-respecting person can write a blog post that starts with them hand drawing curved on an employment chart pretending they're doing analysis.

Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

#676

Post by Dumas007 »

The US has several things backing it currency ...oil/gas, gold, oil- processing efficiencies, the value of the world's largest companies ....AND (not to mention) an unrivaled armed force. Lol. BUT, every barrel of oil to emerge from the ground is immediately priced in US dollars. Hence ....a liquid printing press. GDTA.

Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

#677

Post by temp8830 »

direwolf20 wrote: post #526
tpm wrote: post #397

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Russia and China (and many others) have never even pretended to play or accept these "rules". This false. They have pretended to play by the rules, and when breaking them, to at least manufacture some pretext, or to deny it was a state activity at all. One example I can give you is that when invading Czechoslovakia in 1968, the Soviet Union convinced a few Czechoslovak politicians to write a letter inviting the for…

Russia fabricated an attack on Russia by Ukraine before invading Ukraine. So this is still occurring.

And you just fabricated this whole thing. By the way, if that was an attack by Ukraine on Russia, then you just accepted that Donbass is part of Russia, and has been for some time.

Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

#678

Post by BobbyJo »

bertjk wrote: post #459
BobbyJo wrote: post #388

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It's mostly in forms of treasuries purchased in USD that pay in USD - this means the indebtedness creates a huge amount of dollars abroad that foreigners have to then spend on US services, driving demand. Strangely enough, this is exactly the opposite of how it works. The dollars abroad tend to stay abroad, as either a more stable alternative to local currencies, or a reserve currency. Likewise, treasuries held abr…

If dollars were being repatriated, but as investment into financial instruments and real estate instead of purchases of goods and services, then that would not affect the trade deficit, right?

I don't believe so. I don't think foreign equity and real estate purchases are counted in trade balance. Those assets never leave the US as exports.

Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

#679

Post by BobbyJo »

locknitpicker wrote: post #512
BobbyJo wrote: post #388

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It's mostly in forms of treasuries purchased in USD that pay in USD - this means the indebtedness creates a huge amount of dollars abroad that foreigners have to then spend on US services, driving demand. Strangely enough, this is exactly the opposite of how it works. The dollars abroad tend to stay abroad, as either a more stable alternative to local currencies, or a reserve currency. Likewise, treasuries held abr…

> Strangely enough, this is exactly the opposite of how it works. The dollars abroad tend to stay abroad, as either a more stable alternative to local currencies, or a reserve currency. I think you have it backwards. The US dollar can be handled as a more stable alternative only if it's actually stable. As soon as the US government starts to deteriorate goodwill and outright be hostile towards the world, not only doe…

> I think you have it backwards.

I don't understand how your argument here goes against mine. If anything you're arguing that I am correct, but things are changing.

Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

#680

Post by tossandthrow »

Noaidi wrote: post #9

No one will ever get the timing right, but if you see the fundamental flaws of the economy, you know a crash is going to come. There were a lot of people who predicted the housing crash, not the timing but the crash. There are several signs that this is happening and the one no one is talking about is gold and silver prices. Don’t worry about the timing, you’ll never get the timing right, just worry about the fundame…

The issue is that you don't know magnitudes.

If the market go up 80% before dropping 20% then you want to have bought in.

Post reply on HN