Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Danish pension fund divesting US Treasuries

reuters.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

671–680 of 857 posts

Re: Danish pension fund divesting US Treasuries

#671

Post by JumpCrisscross »

afavour wrote: post #42

It's symbolism. But it's important symbolism. Far more notable, I think, is Macron saying this morning that Europe needs more investment from China. Canada signing a deal with China to allow their cars to be sold in the country. It's all a sliding slope until it reaches a breaking point and falls off like a cliff. EDIT: to quote the Canadian PN earlier today: “American hegemony in particular helped provide public goo…

> It's symbolism

It’s not. If we go to war with Denmark, there is a real chance we sanction them as well.

Re: Danish pension fund divesting US Treasuries

#672

Post by JumpCrisscross »

alphazard wrote: post #94
afavour wrote: post #42

It's symbolism. But it's important symbolism. Far more notable, I think, is Macron saying this morning that Europe needs more investment from China. Canada signing a deal with China to allow their cars to be sold in the country. It's all a sliding slope until it reaches a breaking point and falls off like a cliff. EDIT: to quote the Canadian PN earlier today: “American hegemony in particular helped provide public goo…

> It's symbolism. It's not. This is where the financial rubber meets the road, actions have consequences, and the rest of the world is looking at the US as increasingly unlikely to pay above inflation on its debts. The people managing the pension funds (if they are acting in good faith) really want to generate yield, and really want to preserve capital for the Danish people. They don't want to symbolically do those t…

> debts

This is shoehorning. We’re threatening to go to war with Denmark. You don’t want to be owed money by folks who are attacking you.

Re: Danish pension fund divesting US Treasuries

#673

Post by JumpCrisscross »

epistasis wrote: post #601
mym1990 wrote: post #571

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you think the US is going to decline slowly, fade into history and not try to go out with a bang, I guess that is certainly one world view!

What do you think the US is going to do for that bang? How could a bang ever bring the wealth and peace that its prior friendship with allies brought? The US doesn't have the cards to play, because the current US Government doesn't even understand where the wealth has come from. That US Government has risen to power by tricking the public into thinking that the very things that make the US wealthy and powerful are ac…

> What do you think the US is going to do for that bang?

Literally a bang.

Or many bangs. The largest military in human history going YOLO won’t be a pretty sight. (The only way it sucks more in America than it does abroad is if we go civil war. But even then, it’s almost certain to go global.)

Re: Danish pension fund divesting US Treasuries

#674

Post by JumpCrisscross »

epistasis wrote: post #472
monero-xmr wrote: post #449

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

That idea has been so destroyed by current events that I can only imagine that you are trolling or have been living in a cave for a few weeks. Check the news!

> idea has been so destroyed by current events

To be fair, has it? The EU is talking about activating its anti-coercion thing, which would anyway only kick off a year-long consultation and voting process before anything happened. To my knowledge, there have been no consequences to America annexing Greenland put forward that would hit before the midterms.

Re: Danish pension fund divesting US Treasuries

#675

Post by x-complexity »

epistasis wrote: post #364
corimaith wrote: post #229

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You do realise it is arthimetically impossible to balance all the desired export surpluses of the EU, China, Japan, etc together without the US as the demand sink right? Whatever adjustment comes is certainly going to require somebody to act in a manner contrary to their current strategies, and it's going to be a painful adjustment. And which is harder? Bringing back production to satiate domestic demand or increasin…

That furthers the imbalance to the detriment of the US and in favor of the holders of whichever currency replaces USD. Dedollarization means that the US market is far poorer and can't import as much as before, yet the new reserve currency(ies) make holders that much richer, enabling greater demand for either imports or self-consumption. It will be an adjustment, but there will be many winners, none of which are the U…

> If, for example, China decides that it finally wants a consumer economy

This is a fantasy that the CCP leadership will not entertain, because it would mean losing their control as the (export/industrial) king. Their national security descends from having that crown firmly in their hands & making everyone else reliant on their industries, and will do as much as they can to make sure it stays that way.

A strong currency runs counter to what the CCP leadership wants, having seen how it has hollowed out the US' industrial capacity (as a result of strong currency demand leading to comparatively higher labor costs).

Re: Danish pension fund divesting US Treasuries

#676

Post by jghn »

soerxpso wrote: post #293
jacquesm wrote: post #216

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is not a one sided thing. The US has been allowed to do a lot of things under the NATO umbrella that it benefited from (such as: selling a vast quantity of arms). Soft power is a thing and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization came into being to deal with exactly the kind of situation that we are viewing today. To see the US bow out, and in fact threatening allies is duplicitous at best.

I find it interesting how people say "The US" to refer to groups under the US government that are often completely at odds with the interests of the actual US public. There are virtually no Americans who want our government to be acting in the interests of arms manufacturers except the arms manufacturers themselves and the politicians they pay.

If elections were held today, regardless of who the candidates were, the GOP candidates would receive roughly half the votes. Just like they always do. It's not like there's a regime in place totally at odds with the broader will of the people. It's only at odds with about half of the people.

Re: Danish pension fund divesting US Treasuries

#677

Post by JumpCrisscross »

Arnt wrote: post #170
lostlogin wrote: post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The other thread going on this topic says that Europe could sell about $10 trillion. That’s a lot, but also, it’s only a bit over 10 days trading at normal volumes (according to the numbers being discussed in this thread). https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=46692052

The normal trading volume isn't really the key. Rather, it's how elastic the price is. Suppose these guys sell 10% of the daily trading volume. How do the traders in the market react? One possibility: Buy at current prices. Another: Speculate that there'll be more sales and the price will drop by a couple of per cent in the coming days/weeks, and delay their buying in order to buy the dip. I'm sure the Americans have…

> How do the traders in the market react?

Buy. Because the Fed is about to monetize the debt.

Re: Danish pension fund divesting US Treasuries

#678

Post by [deleted] »

nonethewiser wrote: post #346
luke5441 wrote: post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The FED can print as much money as it wants. Defaulting this way on US debt won't make the US a more desirable debtor nation.

I think you are missing the point. The point is it would materialize as inflation instead of debt default. Not that there is no downside risk.

[deleted]

Re: Danish pension fund divesting US Treasuries

#679

Post by epistasis »

GenerWork wrote: post #658
epistasis wrote: post #364

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That furthers the imbalance to the detriment of the US and in favor of the holders of whichever currency replaces USD. Dedollarization means that the US market is far poorer and can't import as much as before, yet the new reserve currency(ies) make holders that much richer, enabling greater demand for either imports or self-consumption. It will be an adjustment, but there will be many winners, none of which are the U…

>The supposed US trade war on China has resulted in their GDP growing by a massive 5% last year. I'd take those numbers with a grain of salt. China is known to play with the numbers to hit goals when they feel that they need to. >The US will be plummeted into massive recession by those sudden changes, while the rest of the world merely trades with whoever are the winners. The massive devaluation in the dollar would m…

> the country would become incredibly attractive for manufacturing exports

First, the US will not be attractive in any way for investment because it is run by a madman that has ridiculous tariff policies that make starting manufacturing supply chains nearly impossible.

Second, even if the US could transition its economy back to manufacturing, that's a massive slide down the value chain to far less profitable industries than our current tech, biotech, and service driven economies. The idea as presented is a serious downgrade in quality of life compared to today.

> If you think that China is going to shut down the majority of its factories, move them to other countries, and let their currency float freely (well, freer than it is today), you're delusional.

China wants to transition its economy up the value chain to the high tech industry that the US currently has. It has the educational system and the brain power, and the biggest impediment, brain drain to the US, has now been shut off.

If climbing the value chain, out of manufacturing, requires China to shut down factories or open up currency somehow, they are far more likely to do that than to abandon their ambition of economic growth.

Re: Danish pension fund divesting US Treasuries

#680

Post by alwillis »

epolanski wrote: post #113
alphazard wrote: post #94

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It's symbolism. It's not. This is where the financial rubber meets the road, actions have consequences, and the rest of the world is looking at the US as increasingly unlikely to pay above inflation on its debts. The people managing the pension funds (if they are acting in good faith) really want to generate yield, and really want to preserve capital for the Danish people. They don't want to symbolically do those t…

There's no chance US will default on its debts, all it has to do is to print more money. Inflation may spirale, but it's going to be a US citizens problems (as well as US bond holders) in terms of inflation and budget cuts.

> There's no chance US will default on its debts, all it has to do is to print more money.

The US defaulting on its debt seems to be the plan.

The Mar-a-Lago Accord, or the Plan to Crash the US Economy -- https://umairhaque.substack.com/p/the-mar-a-lago-accord-or-t...

Post reply on HN