Statement from Jerome Powell • Hacker News Board

Re: Statement from Jerome Powell

#671

Post by immibis » Mon, Jan 12, 2026, 5:25 PM UTC

eudamoniac wrote: post #651

fyredge wrote: post #445

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is not a fallacy, simply an opinion you disagree with. But one which I strongly agree with. I'm not American, and though I may not agree completely with the politicians I voted for, I have not been blindsided yet. The second election of Trump is a symptom of Americans either unable or unwilling to look beyond single issues or sports team politics. To then turn around and act surprised is just a way to convenient…

I'm convinced that abortion is the worst thing the Democratic party could have ever taken up. You simply cannot sway a vote of a person who believes you support murdering babies. (I am pro abortion, but a substantial amount of people think it is morally murder.) Those people have to vote R their whole life no matter what. Nothing is worse than murdering babies. Democrats would probably never lose again if they public…

So many people didn't vote for the Democrats in 2024 because they didn't support Palestine and they lost as a result. If the Democrats become identical to the Republicans then why would any non-Republican even bother voting?

Re: Statement from Jerome Powell

#672

Post by SpicyLemonZest » Mon, Jan 12, 2026, 5:28 PM UTC

eudamoniac wrote: post #651

fyredge wrote: post #445

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is not a fallacy, simply an opinion you disagree with. But one which I strongly agree with. I'm not American, and though I may not agree completely with the politicians I voted for, I have not been blindsided yet. The second election of Trump is a symptom of Americans either unable or unwilling to look beyond single issues or sports team politics. To then turn around and act surprised is just a way to convenient…

I'm convinced that abortion is the worst thing the Democratic party could have ever taken up. You simply cannot sway a vote of a person who believes you support murdering babies. (I am pro abortion, but a substantial amount of people think it is morally murder.) Those people have to vote R their whole life no matter what. Nothing is worse than murdering babies. Democrats would probably never lose again if they public…

Abortion is an emblematic example of how this kind of triangulation doesn't do what you're expecting. The Democratic party didn't take abortion up on the federal stage, repeatedly declining to create any new statutory protections and endorsing things like the Hyde amendment that acknowledge it's a contested issue. I think that was probably the right decision even in retrospect, but it didn't earn them even a modicum of goodwill from anti-abortion advocates.

You simply can't convince the public that your party doesn't stand for things your members care deeply about.

Re: Statement from Jerome Powell

#673

Post by skissane » Mon, Jan 12, 2026, 5:29 PM UTC

_DeadFred_ wrote: post #505

hackingonempty wrote: post #436

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What makes you think he is not going to pardon every single person in his administration, every single loyal Republican?

ex post facto can be ignored, and a new law of the land passed voiding pardons during 47s term. Because repealing pardons isn't weaponizing the person pardoned's behavior after the fact, it's against Presidential authority, so isn't ex post facto when it comes to the person who's behavior was legally determined to be criminal. Voiding a commutation for cause would be tougher and potential ex post facto, but not a par…

What are the odds the current Supreme Court majority are going to uphold voiding Trump's pardons? Pretty to close to zero.

The only way you could do this would be if you changed the SCOTUS composition through court packing or impeachment or constitutional amendment.

If you wait for the conservative justices to retire and be replaced through death/resignation – by the time that happens, the issue of voiding pardons will likely be mostly irrelevant, because most of the pardonees will be already dead. And that's assuming the political fortune to be able to replace them with justices of a different persuasion, as opposed to just more of the same.

Re: Statement from Jerome Powell

#674

Post by exe34 » Mon, Jan 12, 2026, 5:32 PM UTC

eudamoniac wrote: post #651

fyredge wrote: post #445

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is not a fallacy, simply an opinion you disagree with. But one which I strongly agree with. I'm not American, and though I may not agree completely with the politicians I voted for, I have not been blindsided yet. The second election of Trump is a symptom of Americans either unable or unwilling to look beyond single issues or sports team politics. To then turn around and act surprised is just a way to convenient…

I'm convinced that abortion is the worst thing the Democratic party could have ever taken up. You simply cannot sway a vote of a person who believes you support murdering babies. (I am pro abortion, but a substantial amount of people think it is morally murder.) Those people have to vote R their whole life no matter what. Nothing is worse than murdering babies. Democrats would probably never lose again if they public…

being against abortion is equivalent to condemning women to death when their pregnancy is going wrong.

you see how moral absolutes (don't) work?

Re: Statement from Jerome Powell

#675

Post by Tanoc » Mon, Jan 12, 2026, 5:32 PM UTC

tosapple wrote: post #539

Tanoc wrote: post #485

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A general strike at the level required to change things requires roping in unwilling participants as well. Probably on the scale of breaking infrastructure like payment systems or over the road shipping. If nobody can ignore current events because it's not just impacting but impeding and quickly degrading their quality of life they'll get angry. However just so long as people can go home and play their videogames, or…

The only option is to vote, if you block roads you will be labeled a domestic terrorist. Insurrection act? Things may get alot worse. What are they going to do with all these holding cells when the immigrants are gone?

If you vote, the people you elect will ignore you. From your position as a private citizen there is nothing to hold your representatives responsible other than the possibility that their salaries and "campaign contributions" from lobbyists might stop. For many of these people they become incumbents because the voting population gives so little of a shit that they'll leave things as they are rather than spend the time and effort to research which candidate best aligns with their goals versus the incumbent. In actual use the only punishment mechanisms that exist have to be enacted by these representatives' direct peers rather than the people they represent, and as there are self levels of self interest that will dissuade them from doing so.

As for being labeled a domestic terrorist, the fools within this administration will use (and have used) any excuse to label someone as a domestic terrorist. In their view you are an enemy of the state regardless, because you are not the state. We are all in jeopardy no matter if we comply or not. If we will be labeled a threat because of any action we take, benign or malicious, then there is no practical fear of being labeled, only being captured and punished.

Re: Statement from Jerome Powell

#676

Post by immibis » Mon, Jan 12, 2026, 5:33 PM UTC

rhubarbtree wrote: post #596

croon wrote: post #542

Earlier quoted context omitted.

These are all before the 2024 election: https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-could-try-buy-greenlan... https://www.wired.com/story/trump-cia-venezuela-maduro-regim... https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/how-trumps-wish-for-more-f... https://www.hks.harvard.edu/centers/mrcbg/publications/end-f... Trump voters are either willfully ignorant or gleefully supportive. Maybe not the first time, but definitely the second and…

Are those links to a manifesto? You haven't answered my other points. It's just post-hoc rationalisation because you're angry.

Here's the manifesto:

https://static.heritage.org/project2025/2025_MandateForLeade...

Re: Statement from Jerome Powell

#677

Post by tavavex » Mon, Jan 12, 2026, 5:34 PM UTC

jiggawatts wrote: post #129

abrookewood wrote: post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's also completely in character with Trump's behaviour. He is a dictator who wants what he wants and can't abide anyone standing in his way. He wants absolute authority to do as he wishes. This extends to removing foreign heads of state so he can access their countries resources and also threatening 'allies' so he can take their territory. We're watching him systematically destroy any good will or moral authority t…

He was the owner and CEO of a private company — essentially a dictator without even a board or the SEC keeping him in check. For decades he hasn’t had to tolerate “checks and balances”! Nobody could say “no” and retain their jobs under him. The American public decided to put this type of person in charge. The consequences were predicted.

Remember back when he had a TV show and his catchphrase was the hilarious and creative "you're fired"? The entire concept of The Apprentice as it was pitched to him circled around Trump being the god of business. I wonder if having that kind of a personal brand, alongside the mountains of self-aggrandizing merch could in any way indicate a total unwillingness to exist alongside anyone but worshippers and yes-men...

Re: Statement from Jerome Powell

#678

Post by throwaway920102 » Mon, Jan 12, 2026, 5:41 PM UTC

brcmthrowaway wrote: post #52

Does anyone have a steelman argument for this?

I hate Trump but Treasury control over central banks and interest rates is not a particularly revolutionary thing. Independent central bank is a relatively new invention and a non-independently controlled central reserve bank did not always lead to immediate implosion in all cases. The concept of independent central bank only became popularized in the 1920s. The world existed before that.

The dire thing here is that Trump himself is a maniac, so him taking control is very scary, but a non-independent central bank itself is not as big a calamity as 1000 other problems we're facing in society.

History: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Central_bank_independence

You can find many criticisms of the job performance of many of the past chairs of the US fed, the Fed is not infallible. The current Everything Bubble / Too Big to Fail situation we are in is largely of their creation.

Re: Statement from Jerome Powell

#679

Post by ambicapter » Mon, Jan 12, 2026, 5:45 PM UTC

doom2 wrote: post #607

Aurornis wrote: post #429

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> This is the political will of a plurality of American voters. This fallacy gets repeated over and over, but it's obviously false. Have you really never voted for a candidate who went on to do things you didn't agree with? It's a quintessential fact of politics that voting for a candidate is not equivalent to an endorsement of everything that candidate does in the future. It's a premise that is obviously false when…

> It's just navel-gazing to pretend like what he's doing has high approval Then how is it being reflected in Congress? Where are the Republicans speaking loudly on behalf of their dissatisfied constituents and voting on bills accordingly? We shouldn't have to wait every two years for a midterms or general election for the negative approval rating to make itself known, politicians can choose any time to act in a way t…

He just explained how it works for the presidency, why is it so hard to extend that logic to other elected officials?

Re: Statement from Jerome Powell

#680

Post by cassepipe » Mon, Jan 12, 2026, 5:51 PM UTC

Aurornis wrote: post #435

mapontosevenths wrote: post #120

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I wonder where you guys are headed. You need to know only two facts about America to guess that: * Fifty three percent of Americans now read below the sixth grade level. * As (ostensibly) a representative Democracy America's fate is dictated by the majority of it's citizens. Our future is to become a broken nation governed by middle-school student level thinking. The only way to build a better America is to build a…

> * As (ostensibly) a representative Democracy America's fate is dictated by the majority of it's citizens. No, it's determined by the people who actually go out and vote. Bizarrely, voter turnout among younger people remains low. It's beyond frustrating to work with large groups of young people who are seemingly always talking politics and angry about something political, then to watch as half of them either forget…

Hoping this might help you find a way to reach to the young people you have to work with: I remember my young self being primarily concerned with being right about the world rather while also believing nothing I could do at my level could matter. Maybe it's just me but something about small incremental betterment was uncredibly unsexy to me. I would rationalize voting as "participating in the system" that was rigged anyways.

Somehow it changed after I watched CGP Greg's "rules for rulers" videos