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America is getting an AI gold rush instead of a factory boom

washingtonpost.com

671–680 of 753 posts

Re: America is getting an AI gold rush instead of a factory boom

#671

Earlier quoted context omitted.

10 years from now, the capabilities of gpt5 will be as relevant to AI as Atari is to modern gaming

So people will be paying money for the nostalgia of ChatGPT after it dies? That tracks.

Walmart will sell cheap Chinese emulations to hop on the nostalgia train too.

Re: America is getting an AI gold rush instead of a factory boom

#672

What many Americans don't realize is that China has already surpassed the United States in terms of development (developing country vs developed country sense of the word). Obviously both are 'developed' countries at this point but compare Chinese tier 1 cities vs American tier 1 cities. I would argue Chinese tier 1 cities are 10-20 years ahead of their American counterparts. source: visit any Chinese tier 1 city (Be…

As an East Asian, not really trying to argue that China hasn’t accomplished great things. While I can’t speak directly to this, but from watching The China Show on YouTube, the tradeoff to the amazing amenities is that the personal-injury risk from failing infrastructure has been fatal, but covered up by their propaganda. Anyone on the receiving end of it, will deal with devastating consequences, if not fatal. Infras…

> the QA of car battery manufacturing is causing electric fleets of cars in parking lots to burn

I've seen a lot of grumbling on this site about why the U.S. doesn't have access to cheap EVs like China, but it's almost entirely because the cheap EVs that China is pumping out aren't even close to being up to the U.S.'s stringent safety standards.

Eventually they will be safe enough, and they will also be more expensive.

Re: America is getting an AI gold rush instead of a factory boom

#673

What many Americans don't realize is that China has already surpassed the United States in terms of development (developing country vs developed country sense of the word). Obviously both are 'developed' countries at this point but compare Chinese tier 1 cities vs American tier 1 cities. I would argue Chinese tier 1 cities are 10-20 years ahead of their American counterparts. source: visit any Chinese tier 1 city (Be…

US cities just suck, they lose against pretty much any developed nation except Canada (which is US but without money).

Even any Russian cities are way ahead of US counterparts. Places like Kensington avenue or NYC subway are unimaginable in major cities there.

Re: America is getting an AI gold rush instead of a factory boom

#674

I’m a software engineer now but I was a design mechanical engineer for a decade. In America, mechanical engineers always felt like the bottom of barrel. The pay, benefits, and authority was always worse, even at the big tech companies. Culturally, America wants manufacturing back but doesn’t give it the respect it deserves.

Respect comes with money, money come with demand. No demand - no respect.

Re: America is getting an AI gold rush instead of a factory boom

#675

The US spent decades transitioning from a manufacturing economy to a service economy, deliberately. Now there's a populist making political hay, throwing out numbers about trade deficits, which ignores revenue from services . Yes, there is have a trade deficit on goods, that was a long-term strategy because services were a superior investment. Manufacturing is an inferior way to make money unless you're planning to g…

> The US spent decades transitioning from a manufacturing economy to a service economy, deliberately. I have no idea what this is supposed to mean other than individual rich people started outsourcing labor to poor countries because they were allowed to import the products of that labor back into the country cheaply. > Now there's a populist making political hay, throwing out numbers about trade deficits, which ignor…

> we need to produce something in order to be paid

I would even say we need to produce something in order to remain a sovereign nation. If we buy everything from China, we're governed by China.

Re: America is getting an AI gold rush instead of a factory boom

#676

They are now open about it. Musk tweets about a new company Macrohard, which does not manufacture itself ( https://xcancel.com/elonmusk/status/1977281341264740625#m ): "Our goal is to create a company that can do anything short of manufacturing physical objects directly, but will be able to do so indirectly, much like Apple has other companies manufacture their phones." In other words, we are a knowledge economy and…

WTF is this scam URL.

Re: America is getting an AI gold rush instead of a factory boom

#677

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Or you could have trade borders.

Not that I would doubt the guy who let Mike Tyson hit him in the head or anything, but don’t we have decades of research showing the negative effects of those?

This hinges on the assumption that economists are correctly accounting for value, which seems unlikely. For example, what's the value of being able to repair your jets in a conflict, because the supply chain is local, and doesn't start in an enemy's factory? Comparative advantage tells us we should trade for things that our economy doesn't do well, but if your rival makes bullets better than you do, you're probably still going to make your own. But how do you value that? Security is an intangible asset that can quickly become pathological, as we see in other areas (too much is never enough, just think of the children).

Industries don't exist in isolation, so these effects propagate. If you can't make cars, you probably won't make good tanks. When we assess the value of a local car industry, how do we account for the "use it or lose it" nature of retaining knowledge built up by industry? Part of learning and skilling up is actually doing the thing you're learning about. It's no surprise that the country the West has skilled up in the pursuit of greater profits is now it's chief rival.

And of course, all of this is before we ask questions like what metric is used to determine the benefit. Efficiency in particular is rife with competing definitions that fit various niche use cases, and for which the underlying assumptions may not be obvious. E.g. thermodynamic efficiency is often calculated using the lower heating value of a fuel, the reasons for which are good, but typically left unstated. A layman comparing thermodynamic efficiencies where differing methods are used might draw an erroneous conclusion if they don't understand that there can be differences.

Re: America is getting an AI gold rush instead of a factory boom

#678

What many Americans don't realize is that China has already surpassed the United States in terms of development (developing country vs developed country sense of the word). Obviously both are 'developed' countries at this point but compare Chinese tier 1 cities vs American tier 1 cities. I would argue Chinese tier 1 cities are 10-20 years ahead of their American counterparts. source: visit any Chinese tier 1 city (Be…

While I do believe that China is surpassing the West on many points, I'd like to underline that a cashless society is not a good thing. It's a terrible, terrible idea. With no cash, the citizen passport and the GFW, the dictatorship has total control of society. It's not that there are no homeless, is that they are pushed to even worse conditions, out of sight. It's not that there is zero crime, it's that the crime i…

agree

Re: America is getting an AI gold rush instead of a factory boom

#679
post #578

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A great deal of investment in renewables just meant importing solar panels and wind turbines from China that will wear out in 19 years. Outside of a few jobs in trucking to moving parts and a few jobs to install them, it does not create a solid labour base nor good careers. I certainly want clothing manufacture back in the U.S. with a focus on using renewable (ie. not microplastic based) textiles to make articles of…

If we can make the same product domestically better (cheaper, higher quality etc) then that doesn’t require a barrier in theory. Just make it and sell it for cheaper or sell it for the same but with higher quality. Problem is for the most part that cannot be done. There is a market for made in USA, where people are willing to pay more for higher quality, more sustainable, local etc, but it’s still a relatively small…

"when presented with the choice most people still pick the cheapest option." I actually dont think this is correct. I think when faces with the choices they have they choose the cheaper option. This is not the same thing.

Re: America is getting an AI gold rush instead of a factory boom

#680

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Agreed, but the root cause of the issue the emergency vehicle operator are noticing isn't sound deadening or infotainment gizmos, it's inattentive distracted drivers. Probably playing with their cell phones instead of driving. Similarly, in a manufacturing situation playing with your phone or watching tv is likely to cause problems. Inattention and inability to focus on the job is the problem. You can't solve that wi…

Distracted driving is certainly a problem. But, have you ever driven a quiet vehicle in an urban area where there are plenty of objects to block your line of sight? It is quite easy for a emergency vehicle to sneak up on you in a modern vehicle even when you are paying attention . It's really a simple relationship -- if you block sound, it makes it harder to hear things. This is exactly the reason why newer emergency…

You don't get to excuse a lapse in situational awareness because one or another of your senses is compromised. Compensate. Concentrate. Whatever it takes. Or, of you find that you're sufficiently impaired that you're not competent any longer to do the task, slow down and stop safely. You're in control, and therefore you're responsible. Be it driving, operating a forklift, or a spot welder on an assembly line. Do not cede control.
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