It's pretty good. I asked it to make a piece of warehouse software for storing cobs of corn and it instantly pumped out a prototype. I didn't ask it for anything in particular but it included JSON importing and exporting and all kinds of stuff. It's going to be absolute chaos. Compsci was already mostly a meme, with people not able to program getting the degree. Now we're going to have generations of people that can'…
This kinda outlines my issue with Claude - it constantly pumps my apps full of stuff I didn't ask for - which is great if you want to turn a prompt into a fleshed out app, but bad when trying to make exact edits.
On the Extended NYT Connections benchmark, GPT-5 Medium Reasoning scores close to o3 Medium Reasoning, and GPT-5 Mini Medium Reasoning scores close to o4-Mini Medium Reasoning: https://github.com/lechmazur/nyt-connections/
It is frequently suggested that once one of the AI companies reaches an AGI threshold, they will take off ahead of the rest. It's interesting to note that at least so far, the trend has been the opposite: as time goes on and the models get better, the performance of the different company's gets clustered closer together. Right now GPT-5, Claude Opus, Grok 4, Gemini 2.5 Pro all seem quite good across the board (ie the…
The reason AGI would create a singularity is because of its ability to self learn. Presently we are still a long way from that. In my opinion we at least are as far away from AGI as 1970s mainframes were from LLMs. I really don’t expect to see AGI in my lifetime.
The ability to self-learn is necessary, but not necessarily sufficient. We don’t have much of an understanding of the intelligence landscape beyond human-level intelligence, or even besides it. There may be other constraints and showstoppers, for example related to computability.
Whenever OpenAI releases a new ChatGPT feature or model, it's always a crapshoot when you'll actually be able to use it. The headlines - both from tech media coverage and OpenAI itself - always read "now available", but then I go to ChatGPT (and I'm a paid pro user) and it's not available yet. As an engineer I understand rollouts, but maybe don't say it's generally available when it's not?
It is frequently suggested that once one of the AI companies reaches an AGI threshold, they will take off ahead of the rest. It's interesting to note that at least so far, the trend has been the opposite: as time goes on and the models get better, the performance of the different company's gets clustered closer together. Right now GPT-5, Claude Opus, Grok 4, Gemini 2.5 Pro all seem quite good across the board (ie the…
My personal belief is that we are moving past the hype and kind of starting to realize the true shape of what (LLM) AI can offer us, which is a darned lot, but still, it only works well when fed the right input and handled right - which is still a learning process ongoing on both sides - AI companies need to learn to train these things into user interaction loops that match people's workflows, and people need to learn how to use these tools better.
It is frequently suggested that once one of the AI companies reaches an AGI threshold, they will take off ahead of the rest. It's interesting to note that at least so far, the trend has been the opposite: as time goes on and the models get better, the performance of the different company's gets clustered closer together. Right now GPT-5, Claude Opus, Grok 4, Gemini 2.5 Pro all seem quite good across the board (ie the…
It's quite possible that the models from different companies are clustering together now because we're at a plateau point in model development, and won't see much in terms in further advances until we make the next significant breakthrough.
I don't think this has anything to do with AGI. We aren't at AGI yet. We may be close or we may be a very long way away from AGI. Either way, current models are at a plateau and all the big players have more or less caught up with each other.
I'm not really convinced, the benchmark blunder was really strange but the demos were quite underwhelming, and it appears this was reflected by a huge market correction in the betting markets as to who will have the best AI by end of the year. What excites me now is that Gemini 3.0 or some answer from Google is coming soon and that will be the one I will actually end up using. It seems like the last mover in the LLM…
Which betting markets were you referring to and where can they be viewed?
It is frequently suggested that once one of the AI companies reaches an AGI threshold, they will take off ahead of the rest. It's interesting to note that at least so far, the trend has been the opposite: as time goes on and the models get better, the performance of the different company's gets clustered closer together. Right now GPT-5, Claude Opus, Grok 4, Gemini 2.5 Pro all seem quite good across the board (ie the…
It's also worth considering that past some threshold, it may be very difficult for us as users to discern which model is better. I don't think thats what's going on here, but we should be ready for it. For example, if you are an ELO 1000 chess player would you yourself be able to tell if Magnus Carlson or another grandmaster were better by playing them individually? To the extent that our AGI/SI metrics are based on…
which is a thing with humans as well - I had a colleague with certified 150+ IQ, and other than moments of scary smart insight, he was not a superman or anything, he was surprisingly ordinary. Not to bring him down, he was a great guy, but I'd argue many of his good qualities had nothing to do with how smart he was.