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Grok3 Launch [video]

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Re: Grok3 Launch [video]

#671
post #619

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What's remarkable to me about criticism like this is how quickly it's rebutted by people claiming "where did they say they would do this," as if these people don't make incredibly rushed and poorly planned decisions all the time. It's like an idea immune system that rejects any criticism or self reflection. It would be sociologically fascinating if it wasn't being combined with a dereliction of congressional power an…

I literally post for years the same thing about the need for open source alternatives to social platforms where 1 person controls the algorithm to prioritize what a billion people see. And the response is “meh”. No one even bothers to read past the first paragraph: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43036350 But if you really want to see the “immune system” shine, mention web3 and smart contracts, and watch the dow…

This is the problem we're working on with https://freenet.org/ - a general purpose platform for building entirely decentralized services.

Our thesis is that the client-server architecture is a fundamental flaw in the world wide web's design, which inherently concentrates power in the hands of a few. Freenet aims to be a general purpose replacement for this in which all services are entirely decentralized.

The first non-trivial app we're building will be a group chat system called River[1].

[1] https://github.com/freenet/river

Re: Grok3 Launch [video]

#672
post #668

[flagged]

DeepSeek wouldn't be able to train R1 without their ~600B parameters base model, so you should consider the cost of that model when you compare with Grok.

In any case, Elon won't win this race cause the best talent will not work for him. He used to have good reputation and a lot of money, which is a deadly combination. Now he only has the latter -- not enough when leading AI people can make 7 figures in other companies.

To be clear 1: I'm not saying that people who currently work on Grok are not great. It's not about hiring some great people. It's about competing in the long run - people with other options (e.g. offers from leading AI labs) are more likely to accept those offers than joining his research lab.

To be clear 2: I'm not talking about Elon's reputation due to his politics. I'm only talking about his reputation as an employer.

He has the vision and marketing skills but it's not going to be enough for leading the AI race.

Re: Grok3 Launch [video]

#673

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

He also runs tesla, twitter, xai, boring company, that brain thing company, government agency and has like 10 kids. I'm scared.

Richard Dawkins: "I have a very favorable impression of Elon Musk and his concern for the welfare of the world.

I have sat with [Elon] on a transatlantic plane and had a very, very long conversation with him. He's undoubtedly highly intelligent and knowledgeable.

I've had lunch with him on two or three occasions, and so I know him a little bit.

I have formed a very favorable impression of his intelligence, his knowledge and his concern for the welfare of the world."

The Poetry of Reality, November 17, 2024

Re: Grok3 Launch [video]

#674
post #640

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Getting them to actually do something useful other than generating text is still a work in progress. What do you envision them actually doing in this integration?

Why does it need to work beyond text-based output?

Because all you need to do is Bluetooth your iPhone to your 1995 Ford Ranger, and install Gemini to have a voice conversation with your cars speakers. But then your original comment doesn't make any sense about it being only possible with a Tesla.

Re: Grok3 Launch [video]

#675

Off topic, but just in case: is there a good reference on how people actually use LLMs on a daily basis ? All my attempts so far have been pretty underwhelming: * when I use chatbots as search engines, I'm very quickly disappointed by obvious hallucinations * I ended up disabling github copilot because it was just "auto-complete on steroids" at best, and "auto-complete on mushrooms" at worst * I rarely have use cases…

I use them as an alternative to search engines for topics where I have some specific question where traditional search engines fail to find the needle in the haystack.

As a concrete example, I was recently playing with simulating the wave equation, and I wanted to try to use a higher-order approximation as I had never done that before. I'm quite rusty as I haven't done any numerical work since university some decades ago.

I still recalled how to deal with the Neumann boundary conditions when using the traditional lower-order approximation, but I was uncertain how to do it while keeping the higher-order approximation.

Searching for "higher-order neumann boundary conditions wave equation" or similar got me pages upon pages of irrelevant hits, most of them dealing with the traditional approximation scheme.

So I turned to ChatGPT which right away provided a decent answer[1], and along with a follow-up question gave me what I needed to implement it successfully.

[1]: https://chatgpt.com/share/67b4ab43-6128-8013-8e5a-3d13a74bf6...

Re: Grok3 Launch [video]

#676

The story about how they made this happen in such a short period is impressive to say the least. Elon’s strength seems to be making things happen. Getting the largest computer cluster in the world up and running in a matter of months? Unbelievable.

[flagged]

I’m not sure if that’s the case. He’s obviously a smart man, but what’s truly unbelievable is that someone has so much resources that they can make something like this happen (what looks like) pretty casually.

Re: Grok3 Launch [video]

#677

Credit to the engineers that built this, but it fills me with rage that Elon has this sort of unchecked power. How long before this starts getting deployed in safety critical applications or government decision making processes? With no oversight because Elon seems to have the power to dismiss the people responsible for investigating him. Anyone not scared by this concentration of power needs to pick up a book.

[flagged]

The brains that run and made SpaceX are anonymous engineers working long hours and passionately applying their expertise to a project they believe in. Elon is a man-child tweeting an average of 50 times a day (number not made up), pretending to reach max level in a popular video game and then bragging about it, constantly flying between Mar-a-Lago and the White House in his private jets. He has no time to actually manage "his" companies, of which he puts no work in whatsoever.

You have to finally break free of this myth of the billionaire self-made man, building his fortune at the sweat of his brows. At some point, you're simply so rich that however stupid you are, competent people will still manage your capital well and make you even richer. You can only fail upward.

Do not mistake the current events for anything but an acceleration of the theft of your country by billionaire oligarchs (or rather the people managing their wealth).

Re: Grok3 Launch [video]

#678
post #668

[flagged]

It's a race for AGI, a VC's wet dream.

The beauty of a failed investment is that it never goes below zero. So upside is the only thing they care about. Why invest in a near-zero chance for a random SAAS to take off, when you can invest in a near-zero chance of creating superhuman artificial life?

Re: Grok3 Launch [video]

#679

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

Fixing the deficit is the opposite of looting, actually.

> Fixing the deficit is the opposite of looting, actually.

I think this has two errors.

First, I don't agree that he's fixing the deficit. I think that's an assumption not in evidence. We'll see in a few years time, though. I'd be willing to bet in 4 years the deficit is > 0, and likely larger than it is today.

But let's assume arguendo that he is fixing the deficit. It's still possible to loot the treasury while fixing the deficit, which shows that they aren't actually the opposite.

Consider this example with completely made up numbers:

Before

- Revenue: $1T

- Defense Spending: $500B

- Benefits Spending: $1T

- Public Services Spending: $499.9B

- Government Contracts with Musk's Companies: $100M

The before scenario has $1T in revenue, and $2T in spending, for a deficit of $1T. Now, let's allow hypothetical Musk to have free-reign to "fix the deficit"

After

- Revenue: $800B

- Defense Spending: $300B

- Benefits Spending: $300B

- Public Services Spending: $100B

- Government Contracts with Musk's Companies: $100B

In this scenario the deficit has been reduced to $0, while Musk has enriched himself and his companies with $99.9B in government funds. This would be an extreme example of Musk looting the treasury, while still completely resolving the deficit.

Re: Grok3 Launch [video]

#680
post #668

[flagged]

DeepSeek wouldn't be able to train R1 without their ~600B parameters base model, so you should consider the cost of that model when you compare with Grok. In any case, Elon won't win this race cause the best talent will not work for him. He used to have good reputation and a lot of money, which is a deadly combination. Now he only has the latter -- not enough when leading AI people can make 7 figures in other compani…

It’s not like Grok3 didn’t have precious work to build on either, but point taken.

I think the situations are a bit comparable given timelines however.

A perfect analogy for AI … your ability to replace talent with money. And if you don’t have the talent, it’s gonna cost you 100x more.

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