Earlier quoted context omitted.
The competing theory is that it was transmitted from living animals sold at a wet market in Wuhan. Either story isn't a great look for the CCP: either they failed to maintain sufficient health protocols to keep diseases from spreading in wet markets, or they let a dangerous virus leak from a lab. There's no theory for its origins that have the CCP looking competent, so I'm not sure why it's such a politicized topic.
I thought that was baseless speculation and the lab leak more likely explained it because it was in close proximity to the market.
CIA now favors lab leak theory to explain Covid's origins
671–680 of 868 posts
Re: CIA now favors lab leak theory to explain Covid's origins
#672Earlier quoted context omitted.
> That’s like saying that if a new flu came out of Atlanta, the fact the CDC is there proves it came from a lab, and must be true because someone’s janitor cousin who worked there one summer said it was true. Well in this case it’s more like if if a new flu burst onto the scene with the following all being true: - the epicenter of the outbreak being within a few miles of the CDC - the CDC working specifically on gain…
Actually, my first though would be that there were other outbreaks, but we only documented the one in Atlanta because the CDC happened to be there. We should expect that the first outbreaks documented are those that happen to be close to facilities capable of identifying and documenting them.
Re: CIA now favors lab leak theory to explain Covid's origins
#673Earlier quoted context omitted.
Has there been any global virus outbreak from Fort Detrick or the US? US govt funded some research in the lab which leaked the virus in Wuhan, is Chinese govt funding Fort Detrick?
Likely Spanish Flu. People thought H1N1 started in US because US reported it first. Later it was thought to have originated from Mexico. PRC propaganda notes strange pneumonia with covid like symptoms in Fort Detrick area prior to covid going global. Is that enough propaganda for US to open up their sovereign soil for international investigation? The point is CIA claims has just as little credibility as PRC claims, e…
Re: CIA now favors lab leak theory to explain Covid's origins
#674Earlier quoted context omitted.
But SARS outbreak was from a single strain, wasn't it? It's not the “two zoonosis” that I find to be low-probability, it's the “two zoonosis of two different strains at the same place & time”.
The SARS outbreak was from many zoonosis events of slightly different strains, over the course of months. The standard zoonosis theory here predicts that multiple spillover events are likely, because there's a population of infected animals that is in close contact with humans.
Virtually simultaneous, in time and space, zoonosis events from different strains at the same place is still possible, but reaches much lower on the scale.
Re: CIA now favors lab leak theory to explain Covid's origins
#675Earlier quoted context omitted.
Both the FBI and DOE, which have their own foreign intelligence gathering capabilities, had previously assessed that COVID was caused by a lab leak with moderate confidence. So while I agree with you that the truth will likely remain shrouded in some mystery, most of us that believed it originated from zoonosis at first (and I would include myself in that camp) should update our priors both based on the CIA assessmen…
My priors include none of the agencies having expertise in epidemiology.
Re: CIA now favors lab leak theory to explain Covid's origins
#676Earlier quoted context omitted.
Likely Spanish Flu. People thought H1N1 started in US because US reported it first. Later it was thought to have originated from Mexico. PRC propaganda notes strange pneumonia with covid like symptoms in Fort Detrick area prior to covid going global. Is that enough propaganda for US to open up their sovereign soil for international investigation? The point is CIA claims has just as little credibility as PRC claims, e…
Why didn't China not allow WHO to inspect the origin of the virus?
Re: CIA now favors lab leak theory to explain Covid's origins
#677> The agency made its new assessment with “low confidence,” which means the intelligence behind it is fragmentary and incomplete. I do believe that's all one really needs to know about this shift in their thinking. In other words: it's really far from certain. --- One thing that is, however, quite certain: there are very real political reasons to favor one theory or another. For example, Sen. Tom Cotton is quoted as…
Re: CIA now favors lab leak theory to explain Covid's origins
#678https://oversight.house.gov/release/final-report-covid-selec...
The house oversight committee investigated for 2 years and came to this conclusion. The CIA is falling in line with the rest of the government.
>The single most thorough review of the pandemic conducted to date
>The FIVE strongest arguments in favor of the “lab leak” theory include:
>The virus possesses a biological characteristic that is not found in nature.
>Data shows that all COVID-19 cases stem from a single introduction into humans. This runs contrary to previous pandemics where there were multiple spillover events.
>Wuhan is home to China’s foremost SARS research lab, which has a history of conducting gain-of-function research at inadequate biosafety levels.
>Wuhan Institute of Virology (WIV) researchers were sick with a COVID-like virus in the fall of 2019, months before COVID-19 was discovered at the wet market.
>By nearly all measures of science, if there was evidence of a natural origin it would have already surfaced.
Re: CIA now favors lab leak theory to explain Covid's origins
#679Apart from directing anger for political reasons, I don't see the big importance. It's like wondering why a single building caught fire, when the shocking thing was that the whole world caught fire. Surely the lessons to learn are with 'how to deal with a spreading fire', and not with 'how to prevent a fire'.
Re: CIA now favors lab leak theory to explain Covid's origins
#680"Synthesis of Chimeric NovelSARS-CoVQS: We will commercially synthesize SARSr- Cov glycoprotein genes, designed for insertion into SHCO14 or WIV16 molecular clone backbones (88% and 97% S-protein identity to epidemic SARS-Urbani. These are BSL-3, not select agents or subject to P3CO (they use bat SARS-CoV backbones which are exempt) and are pathogenic to hACE2 transgenic mice. Different backbone strains increase recovery of viable:viruses identification of barriers for RNA recombination-mediated gene transfer between strains™. Recombinant viruses will be recovered in Vero cels, or in mouse cells over-expressing human, bat or civet ACE2 receptors to support cultivation ofviruses with a weaker RBD-human ACE2 interface. "
In vitro testing of chimeric viruses: All chimeric viruses will be sequence verified and evaluated for. i) ACE2 receptor usage across species in vitro, ii) growth in primary HAE, iii) sensitivity to broadly cross neutralizing human monoclonal antibodies that recognize unique epitopes in the RBD. Should some isolates prove highly resistant to our mAB panel we will evaluate cross neutalzation against a cited number of human SARS-CoV serum samples from the Toronto outbreak. Chimeric viruses that encode novel genes with slower potential will be used to identify SARSr-CoV strains for recovery as full genome length viable viruses.
In vivo pathogenesis: Groups of 10 animals will be infected intranasally with 1.0 x 106 PFU of each vSARSr-CoV, clinical signs (weight loss, respiratory function, mortality, et) followed for 6 days..."
S2 Proteolytic Cleavage and Glycosylation Sites: ... We will analyze all SARS-CoV S gene sequences for appropriately conserved proteolytic cleavage sites in S2 and for the presence of potential furin cleavage sites".... Where clear mismatches occur, WE WILL INTRODUCE APPROPRIATE HUMAN SPECIF CLEAVAGE SITES AND EVALUATE GROWTH POTENTIAL IN VERO CELL AND HAE CULTURES."
I apologize as the copy and paste from a PDF is not ideal. If anyone ever wanted a smoking gun, this is it. The WIV proposed to build SARS-COV2 in 2018/2019. The key point is that when someone proposes this type of research, they often have already done the work and the funding will be used to generate the next result needed for future funding.
Also, one item that the world conveniently forgot was that half of the specialists in this field believed passionately that the only way to prevent the next Pandemic was to create super viruses in the lab (this is in the public record). Given the extensive history of lab leaks and suspected lab leaks, this path is absolute and complete hubris and folly. The same folks who were pushing this agenda (and the DEFUSE proposal is filled with little notes as to how certain rules could be skirted) were the folks who immediately claimed that it was absolutely impossible for this to be a lab leak.
This proposal was shopped to a number of different US agencies in 2019. This means that there were likely dozens of individuals in multiple agencies who reviewed this proposal and said absolutely nothing when the pandemic broke.