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Joe Biden stands down as Democratic candidate

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Re: Joe Biden stands down as Democratic candidate

#671

Post by mcswell »

woodruffw wrote: post #347
HarHarVeryFunny wrote: post #318

Not going to happen, but I wonder how a mixed party ticket would do. Kamala (or whoever) + Mitt Romney as VP ? Has it ever been done? Would it work to attract the center/swing vote, or more likely to be a negative?

> Not going to happen, but I wonder how a mixed party ticket would do. Kamala (or whoever) + Mitt Romney as VP ? I think it would be very hard to convince the liberal-progressive base (i.e. the core of the party) of the DNC to go for this. > Has it ever been done? Before the 12th Amendment was passed, the VP came from the opposing party[1]. This didn't work particularly well in practice, which is why nobody remembers…

Larry Hogan would make an interesting VP candidate on Harris's ticket. He's a Republican, but was a two term governor in the blue state of Maryland. (Maryland has a two term limit on the governor, so he's now running for Senator.) To the extent that the candidate for VP pulls in votes, I think he'd do an awesome job.

Re: Joe Biden stands down as Democratic candidate

#672

Post by Aeolun »

dangus wrote: post #612
avar wrote: post #590

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> you must be younger than > the average life expectancy > (currently 73yo) - while in > office. As an aside, it's a common error to think that overall life expectancy is relevant to this sort of thing, it's not. That number includes those who die in infancy, etc. If you wanted to limit it by "life expectancy" you'd want to limit it by the statistical expected remaining years of life at the candidate's current age .…

Joe Biden is older than 80 lol I would want to limit it by social security retirement age. I don’t really know any 70 year olds who are “all there.”

> I don’t really know any 70 year olds who are “all there.”

Maybe, but I know a lot of 20ish year olds that aren’t all there either.

Re: Joe Biden stands down as Democratic candidate

#673

Post by adharmad »

ajross wrote: post #413
Andrew_nenakhov wrote: post #160

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Kamala looks unelectable. She had to quit the nomination race in 2020 even before primaries.

This is really misunderstanding how that works. The 2020 field at that point was wide open, no one candidate was looking dominant. She absolutely "could" have stayed in with a real shot at winning, which was true for basically all of them. She got out because (1) staying in costs money and fundraising in a wide-open primary is extremely hard and (2) she judged[1] that she'd have a better path to the presidency by pos…

With all their talk of campaign finance reform, it is not clear to me why the DNC does not finance their most valid primary candidates? Why make them jump through hoops and raise money to stay in the race between the primary elections?

Re: Joe Biden stands down as Democratic candidate

#674

Post by buildsjets »

standardUser wrote: post #641
dankvectorz wrote: post #638

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Air traffic controller here: we have a mandatory requirement age of 56.

You have a really strong union.

You are joking, right? You cannot seriously claim that NATCA is anything but a paper tiger if you knew anything about the history of ATC unionization in the USA. President Regan fired all 11,000 members of the actual strong ATC union, PATCO, and barred them from government jobs for life. NATCA never bothered to negotiate their rights back. Some REALLY strong union.

https://libraries.uta.edu/news-events/blog/1981-patco-strike

Re: Joe Biden stands down as Democratic candidate

#675

Post by inopinatus »

avar wrote: post #579
inopinatus wrote: post #558

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sadly, this has never happened, anywhere, ever. The distinguishing and necessary result of democracy, practically unique when compared to any other form of government, is that it provides a nonviolent means to remove aggressively incompetent people from office.

> Sadly, this has never > happened, anywhere, ever. Didn't this literally just happen? If Biden hadn't suffered in the polls after the nature of his debate performance, I don't see how we'd be here today. However indirect the mechanism by which he was ousted, it ultimately comes down to an assessment of what candidate voters would have been willing to back.

Polls are not an election, indirectly or otherwise. The people who care most about polls are a) pollsters, and b) hacks writing tedious process stories.

My point includes the suggestion that there is never a "best"; the optimal outcome is to elect the least worst candidate.

    ALI: I shall stay here and learn politics.
    LAWRENCE: That's a very low occupation.
    ALI: I had no thought of it when I met you.
The paradox of government is that the people most qualified to hold office - almost any office - are deterred from it by the sheer awfulness of the jobs. Someone deselecting themselves is in the general category of the dissuaded, even if they've done it before.

c.f. also Adams on presidential elections, https://www.goodreads.com/quotes/2416

Re: Joe Biden stands down as Democratic candidate

#676

Post by evdubs »

drusepth wrote: post #636
evdubs wrote: post #499

Earlier quoted context omitted.

He did tick up after the debate, but now Kamala is heavily favored for the Democrats. https://www.realclearpolling.com/betting-odds/2024/president

Why is Obama (I assume Michelle?) in those odds (and, interestingly, at #3 right behind Kamala)? Has she ever indicated she might run?

No, those are just longshot odds that bookmakers, for whatever reason, have.

Re: Joe Biden stands down as Democratic candidate

#677

Post by JoshTriplett »

BurningFrog wrote: post #540
tiffanyh wrote: post #533

Putting politics aside … Why don’t they have an age limit on the president (or any elected office)? E.g., you must be younger than the average life expectancy (currently men: 73yo / female: 79) - while in office. https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/table4c6.html

It's considered to be up to the voters to pick the best candidate.

With a better voting system (e.g. Approval or Condorcet) and nothing preventing a dozen candidates from running, that would be much more feasible.

These go hand in hand: our current voting system breaks down if multiple candidates draw votes from each other, but a better voting system would be immune to that failure mode and could give people a free choice of several reasonable candidates without having some of them withdraw and throw their support to others.

Re: Joe Biden stands down as Democratic candidate

#678

Post by cdrini »

scoofy wrote: post #570
jonhohle wrote: post #552

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Harris didn’t make it to _a_ primary. If her debate performance is anything like it was in 2020, her campaign is already over.

Nobody was voting for Biden for Biden ... people were voting against Trump. I think any of the leaders Harris, Whitmer, Newsom will all do fine. The bar is so low right now, I think most people will be impressed by basic competence, which all three have in spades.

I wish folks wouldn't speak in absolutes this much, it's incorrect and tends to raise the temperature of a generally already heated discussion.

Biden's approval rating was like 40% for most of his term. So many many many people voted for Biden for Biden. Many people followed his progress and are happy with it.

Re: Joe Biden stands down as Democratic candidate

#679

Post by lupire »

tomohawk wrote: post #620
BurningFrog wrote: post #540

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's considered to be up to the voters to pick the best candidate.

The Democrat party cancelled primaries in a few states to prevent anyone from running against Biden. The party picked this guy. https://floridaphoenix.com/2024/03/20/chair-nikki-fried-defe... https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/bidens-democratic-challenger... https://ny1.com/nyc/all-boroughs/politics/2023/12/08/dean-ph...

No one is required to vote for a party's nominee.

Re: Joe Biden stands down as Democratic candidate

#680

Post by wayeq »

woodruffw wrote: post #347
HarHarVeryFunny wrote: post #318

Not going to happen, but I wonder how a mixed party ticket would do. Kamala (or whoever) + Mitt Romney as VP ? Has it ever been done? Would it work to attract the center/swing vote, or more likely to be a negative?

> Not going to happen, but I wonder how a mixed party ticket would do. Kamala (or whoever) + Mitt Romney as VP ? I think it would be very hard to convince the liberal-progressive base (i.e. the core of the party) of the DNC to go for this. > Has it ever been done? Before the 12th Amendment was passed, the VP came from the opposing party[1]. This didn't work particularly well in practice, which is why nobody remembers…

The number of voters aligned with old school Reagan/Bush era Republicanism has all but disappeared. The majority of GOP voters consider Romney to be part of 'the swamp'. Politics in America is increasingly driven by hatred of the out-group, so it is hard to imagine a mixed ticket doing well in 2024.
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