Earlier quoted context omitted.
> If a founder cashes out 10% of their position for $500k @ $25M Series A valuation, that de-risks a lot of their personal life. But when the startup ends up selling for $250M, that $500k of 'early' selling would have been worth $5M (less any dilution between rounds) - hard not to regret the choice in that case even if hedging is going to be the correct choice 99% of the time. IMHO, it's very easy not to regret, with…
Regret is perhaps too strong of a word. But $5M is $5M even if you have $45M. Sure, it won't change your life since you have the $45M, but the incremental investing / philanthropy / estate / family help etc that it allows you is real in absolute terms. The other thing I've noticed is that for people on the other side of this transaction, it's not like "smaller numbers" all of a sudden become immaterial. $1M is still…
I guess you'll feel pretty bad if you pay for car insurance for 40 years, and never have a crash.
If the 100% upside is guaranteed, then sure, you should hang on.
But if "anything can happen" then cashing out 10% now, and providing a "can't fail" safety net, is well worth it. The reduction of risk of "losing it all" is well worth the 10% premium. And if the (somewhat unlikely) big exit ever happens you still have 90%.