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How to Start Google

paulgraham.com

671–680 of 681 posts

Re: How to Start Google

#671

I have mixed feelings about this, mostly because the stakes on giving people persuasive advice with an enviable track record in hand might be at its highest in a room full of 14/15-year olds. This is exactly the kind of thing that made me dramatically more ambitious and harder working when I started reading pg essays (pushing 20 years ago now), so I have a huge soft spot for the feeling/nostalgia that I got when I ju…

It’s a nice write-up, thank you. But I didn’t get the YouTube Premium thing in this context. Does it allow watching something that is hidden from non-premium plebs? I thought it’s a no-advertising thing, the premium, isn’t it?

YouTube Premium is on paper just no ads, offline viewing, and their music catalog (so a steal if you’re already paying for e.g. Spotify and find the Google Music catalog adequate).

Anecdotally it seems to be a different ranker with much more “interest” as opposed to “engagement” joint loss, but I could just be in a lucky bandit group.

Re: How to Start Google

#672

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> If you save a third of that (which is not easy) This is very easy, actually. You just happen to like fancy things and houses, probably. > Now if you’re dual cogs with no kids, maybe. If you do have kids, you’re not retiring until long after ten years. I find it depressing that so many people use kids as an excuse to avoid facing their own problems with money and spending. Look deeper and you can find happiness with…

Actually I just looked at my last year at a FAANG in California. I earned about $370 K (including 401K match). $135 K went to taxes (Federal, Social Security, Medicare, State). If I save absolutely everything left ($235 K) for 10 years that gets me to 2.35 million. The parent post mentioned saving $2-5 million. To get to $ 2 M I have to live off $35 K a year (I realize I'm ignoring investment activities). EDIT: addit…

> But that actually creates a deferred tax obligation. Let’s say the tax rate you pay that at is 20% (very optimistic

There are also ways to get at this money with almost no taxes paid later IF you are not working--look for "Roth IRA conversion ladder".

Also look into "Mega Backdoor Roth" for more tax sheltering.

> That seems challenging in Northern California

You don't have to retire to California. Just pay minimal costs while you're there. Many places in US are beautiful, have great infrastructure and health care, and don't cost as much.

And investment growth is a LOT; don't ignore it. And after just a few years of not working, unless you have a bad start you can probably live off of much more than the initial safe withdrawal rate.

Re: How to Start Google

#673

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> If you save a third of that (which is not easy) This is very easy, actually. You just happen to like fancy things and houses, probably. > Now if you’re dual cogs with no kids, maybe. If you do have kids, you’re not retiring until long after ten years. I find it depressing that so many people use kids as an excuse to avoid facing their own problems with money and spending. Look deeper and you can find happiness with…

Actually I just looked at my last year at a FAANG in California. I earned about $370 K (including 401K match). $135 K went to taxes (Federal, Social Security, Medicare, State). If I save absolutely everything left ($235 K) for 10 years that gets me to 2.35 million. The parent post mentioned saving $2-5 million. To get to $ 2 M I have to live off $35 K a year (I realize I'm ignoring investment activities). EDIT: addit…

At $45,000/yr of expenses (do-able in SF), it'll take 7 years to have passive income from a stock+bond portfolio cover those expenses.

https://ibb.co/qyFz1C3

Of course, a bad market makes it longer, but the converse is also true: it's more likely a good market makes it shorter! (historically markets go up more than down, of course)

Add a spouse that also saves and invests, and you can have MORE than $45,000/yr of expenses covered within 7 years of earning at that rate. You can also back off to part time or have one spouse continue working after having kids, and all you need to do is cover SOME (not even all!) of your expenses.

> I want to do that? - living at that spending level is likely to affect my long-term health and happiness

The freedom of not dealing with "the cult of impact" [1] and other such silly things is amazing. Having a huge pile of money allows solid peace of mind in a way most people can't even conceive.

And finding out how much happiness you can get independently of spending money is truly eye-opening. Most people are too scared to even TRY finding fulfillment away from what society tells us is "fun".

[1] https://old.reddit.com/r/ExperiencedDevs/comments/1bh80wl/go...

Re: How to Start Google

#674

1. Get into Stanford just as Stanford is getting into the VC business. 2. Use Stanford bandwidth for your web crawler. 3. See how AltaVista does it; they're in downtown Palo Alto. 4. Get 100K from the guy who founded Sun. 5. Move into the space above the bike shop in Palo Alto. (9 major startups began there.) 6. Get more funding from the guy who founded Amazon. 7. Sell search ads. 8. Profit!

In the zero interest rate environment it was easier to get good advice and orders of magnitude more more money. A lot of those companies are crap. Google had good timing but importantly, a good product and market fit. Prior search engines sucked in comparison with obnoxious monetization.

Google succeeded because they built a useful service and later were able to monetize it. Their timing could not have been better, searching the Internet at that time was horrendous.

Re: How to Start Google

#675
post #6
post #3

He left out the part about starting your company at a unique point in history where a generational technology shift was taking place that also happens to be a time when antitrust laws had recently been enforced (making your main competitor wary) but were about to be completely ignored for the next 20 years, so you could exploit your initial market position and engage in anti-competitive behavior to grow huge.

Or the part where your parents are professors and provide the educational opportunities and financial freedom to take risks that 99% of people don't have. I don't mean that to even sound bitter or cynical, but it's just a fact if you look at most founders, even the ones that fail miserably.

Yep, he's basically preaching to a subset of young people who can help him make more money and tech fame.

I mean, it's not the worst thing he could do but it would be great if he at least acknowledged the privilege filter once in a while.

Re: How to Start Google

#676

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, that only makes you well-off. You get filthy rich by capturing as much of the market as possible by whatever means necessary and killing off competition - including user lock-in, artificial bundling, using successful past products to subsidize non-profitable new ones just to screw competitors etc.

Which one did Google founders do to get filthy rich?

Well, you're right, initially Google is a great example of growing because it genuinely was a great well executed product whose time had come. I mean it was just such a fresh air to go from using Excite and asking Jeeves to just googling it.

> user lock-in, artificial bundling,

But eventually Google hit its peak and has had to for the last decade or so concern itself with just maintaining its monopoly position, and it's done a lot of shady things to abet that, if you recall from reading the news over the last decade. A few I recall offhand.

* The infamous developer wage fixing scheme! Remember when it was uncovered that Apple and Google had been secretly and informally following no-poaching and wage cap rules to try to use their market power against developers?

* Monopolizing the ad marketplace by constant mergers and acquisitions (eg DoubleClick)

* Just generally using M&A and hiring as an anti competitive tool, eg acquihiring, overhiring, acquire-and-shut-down, etc -- hiring and acquiring not as a way to legitimately add profitable capabilities but instead merely as a way to tie up valuable limited resources (devs) and thus deny oxygen to potential competition.

* Don't get me started on how they're currently abusing Chromebooks to infiltrate the schools and get kids hooked on watching addictive YouTube Shorts and otherwise being good online ad targets during class time

And I'm sure all the other usual monopolistic behavior companies in their position are often tempted into. Google's challenge has been that by the 2010s, there wasn't really anything left for it to innovate in that could possibly come close to adding more than a rounding error's worth of profit to the huge ad machine.

So since then Google has fundamentally been more like a petrostate or a traditional utility company or something -- just protect the cash cow at all costs and don't rock the boat otherwise. It still kept and continues to try to keep to wear the costume of its earlier younger hip innovative days, but I think that's falling away as a new generation grows up who now sees them as part of the Man, an institution that's been there forever and no longer have a memory of the days when they were new, fun, innovative, countercultural.

In summary, Google didn't do shady things to get filthy rich, but it did do shady things later to stay filthy rich once it became clear there was nothing else left to do but either that, or watch the business gradually decline and get eaten by newer, hungrier startups and competitors.

Re: How to Start Google

#677

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Folks underestimate how incredibly skilled Notch was and is. Unfortunately ludum dare has taken down its historical compo pages, but I remember that he had several games built from scratch in 24 hours which were mind boggling impressive. One had a full 3d rendering engine implemented in Dartlang written in 48 hours. Another was a minecraft top down rpg clone. Dude is the Bobby Fischer of tech

Yup.... if you look at Minecraft Classic or one of the similar early versions' code..... it's quite advanced. It's conceptually fairly simple but the game just has so many small nice things which are taken for granted but are not trivial to implement. It's no surprise that almost all of the iconic things about Minecraft was created in the first few years by Notch.... everything else afterwards is just polishing it an…

I studied it very closely to try to comprehend how someone could create something like that so quickly. The difference between Notch's LDJAM projects and other folks is that HE WROTE THE ENTIRE FUCKING ENGINE ALONG WITH THE GAME. Sprite transforms, pixel art, movement, sound... just everything... John Carmack eat your heart out.

Re: How to Start Google

#678

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is true if you require the same amount of income to maintain your lifestyle, but if you've been working in tech for 20 years, you have savings. I'm not in my 40s yet, but it's much more viable for me to take a risk now than it was when I was just starting out because I can afford to fail for a couple years without, you know, becoming homeless.

This so much. I'm 36 and I can afford to not work for many years with my savings. It's definitely easier now for me.

You can do this if you're in US, salaries elsewhere for tech jobs are more inline with salaries for specialized professions (doctors, lawyers). They're still larger than other jobs but it goes nowhere near the levels of western/eastern US (exceptions exist ofc).

Then there's a question when you start a family, that's subjective and something you can control but the model of creating career and then having kids (in late 30s/early 40s) seems more common in US. If you have your first child in mid 30s, then few laters 2nd one for example, you still need to be very hands-on, attentive and provide at least until your late 40s/early 50s.

Re: How to Start Google

#679

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Creating something from scratch is so much easier today than it ever was, and I’ve been creating crap for decades now. All the fancy JavaScript crap is purely optional. You can still write something in CGI if you want. My last prototype I wrote with Vue and JQuery and as pure html and .js files. It was an absolute blast! And the users loved it! Have you tested streamlit? FastAPI? Everything is so easy now.

Today if I were to write a cgi script it would have to send json payloads to the JS front end because round trip latency on phones is between 100 to 500ms to hit a dns server. I was getting lower latency on dialup in 1996. On my desktop it's 2ms on a bad day. You can't just use HTML because browsers have mutated to fat clients for a X like protocol which is a mishmash of html, css, js, and whatever else someone's dec…

No need for JSON and JS, you can use pure HTML streaming: https://lamplightdev.com/blog/2024/01/10/streaming-html-out-... and pure CSS interactions like tabs, accordions, dropdown menus.

Re: How to Start Google

#680
post #631
post #617

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No billionaire made the world a better place.

Two problems with arguments like these. First, "better" is so subjective that it almost becomes a moot point. Second, a single counter example disproves it. You don't think Ronaldo has entertained millions of kids around the world and made them very happy to watch him play? I would say that is a good thing.

Or LeBron, MJ, MacKenzie Scott...
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