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Elon Musk owns Twitter: The story so far

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Re: Elon Musk owns Twitter: The story so far

#671

They need to stop ruining the experience for those of us without an account. Everyone was using Twitter as basically an open bulletin board and then they go and make it visitor-hostile. I look at ads either way.

I have an account and every time I hit that signup/in wall I just close the page rather than sign into my account

Re: Elon Musk owns Twitter: The story so far

#672

They need to stop ruining the experience for those of us without an account. Everyone was using Twitter as basically an open bulletin board and then they go and make it visitor-hostile. I look at ads either way.

It's possible that the reduced usage from a bad experience costs less than the gain from de-anonymizing visitors. Because they are under FTC consent orders, their ability to connect shadow profiles to anonymous visitors for improved targeting may be limited, and they are willing to piss you off because that's more effective from a metric perspective.

Not saying it's the right way of doing business or that it won't bite them in the butt... but they definitely don't "need" to do it to save the business if the analytics point otherwise.

Re: Elon Musk owns Twitter: The story so far

#673

My predictions: 1. Musk is going to discover (and maybe admit?) that fixing Twitter is harder than he thought. It will be just like self-driving, which seems straightforward, but which actually has thousands of edge cases which are hard to solve with a single general system. Nevertheless, he will persist, because that's what he does. 2. Current Twitter makes a profit on advertising, which means Twitter needs to encou…

4) don't overestimate cut of transaction and underestimate ad revenue (promoting the transaction seekers). Let's use Amazon as an example: They run a 3P marketplace with a transaction cut business model, and it's not very profitable. Vs. their ads based sponsored product which is extremely profitable (soon to larger than AWS for profit at Amazon). This is a very different ad business than twitter's current performanc…

Fair point.

I haven't done the math because nobody is paying me to. But your example of Amazon might reinforce my point in that all three components (retail, ads, AWS) reinforce each other. Amazon is trying to be the "Everything App" also because they see synergies (even if only in shared infra).

And Amazon can afford to be less agressive with ads because it's a smaller part of their business, compared to (e.g.) Meta or Twitter. Apple is in a similar place: they can afford to care more about privacy because they don't make money from ads.

The more revenue Twitter can get from non-ad sources, the better the user experience (in my opinion).

But you're right that there's no guarantee that they will be able to get much non-ad revenue.

Re: Elon Musk owns Twitter: The story so far

#674
post #671

They need to stop ruining the experience for those of us without an account. Everyone was using Twitter as basically an open bulletin board and then they go and make it visitor-hostile. I look at ads either way.

I have an account and every time I hit that signup/in wall I just close the page rather than sign into my account

+1, for anyone who doesn't stay signed in it's a "go away" signal - which is ironic because those people are more likely to sign in if they are allowed to read more.

Re: Elon Musk owns Twitter: The story so far

#675

They need to stop ruining the experience for those of us without an account. Everyone was using Twitter as basically an open bulletin board and then they go and make it visitor-hostile. I look at ads either way.

I agree, it is super annoying. I can see why they do it though. They want to be able to serve you more lucrative ads, and they want to be able to count you as an active user. (Now that I think about it, they probably count anon visitors somehow, but IDK how they would count them without massively overcounting.)

Re: Elon Musk owns Twitter: The story so far

#676
post #349

I always wonder: how much honesty is in him? For example, he stopped talking about the bot population on the platform altogether after he could not get out of the deal. Was he honest about this being a big issue in the first place? For me, it’s not easy to believe this because this bot issue appeared right after Twitter staff did not like his speech, and talks with the CEO fell apart. Am I mistaken about how it all p…

Every one of us has run into situations where choosing to be honest has materially cost us. You accidentally scratch a parked car on your way out. Do you stop and leave a note with contact info or not? The richer you are, the more leverage you have and larger the material cost for these situations. A fellow rich friend gives you a little insider info that a stock you hold is about to crater. Do you sell some? In othe…

This is a really insightful comments right up to "Given that".

Re: Elon Musk owns Twitter: The story so far

#677

They need to stop ruining the experience for those of us without an account. Everyone was using Twitter as basically an open bulletin board and then they go and make it visitor-hostile. I look at ads either way.

Absolutely. Too many people (especially managers) have Monthly Active Users drilled into their heads and can't comprehend that there is a bottom line ($$$) that is the real KPI.

Re: Elon Musk owns Twitter: The story so far

#678

In the spirit of trying to be high-information and add value: Where Musk is going, there are no maps. So it's very very hard to project. But we can predict likely developments. At a very high level, it's going to involve: bringing back controversial personalities like Donald Trump; increasing Twitter's commitment to 'free speech'; assuaging skittish advertisers; retaining users who might be concerned, while bringing…

It sounds like Musk is going to tell advertisers to kick rocks and try to monetize the platform. Where are people gonna go if not on Twitter? The left isn't gonna have better luck with their own truth social or parler. The network effect is too big with Twitter. It's not fun if you're not dunking on your enemies. That's the fun of Twitter.

Facebook could allow for special profiles that are only comprised of statuses. That would be a Twitter clone in a nutshell that would already have high adoption.

That would require Facebook to make a shrewd business decision though so never mind.

Re: Elon Musk owns Twitter: The story so far

#679
post #196

OK, so far, not much. Musk is getting stretched rather thin. Space-X seems to be doing OK with Gwynne Shotwell running things. Tesla, which Musk apparently does really run personally, is doing OK, but their side ventures are not. Self-driving is a mess. Solar panels (yes, Tesla has a solar panel business) are not doing well. The Cybertruck is years late. (Maybe next year.[1]) So is the Tesla Model 2, the low-end vehi…

The Boring Company's latest test tunnel was about 1034 times slower than a snail (their current stated goal). https://www.reddit.com/r/BoringCompany/comments/xugxdl/comme...

Well , yes, that’s how development and improvement work. You have to start somewhere and Improve from there.

Remember, the first SpaceX launch attempts didn’t make orbit. Did that make them quit because they ‘failed’?

Improvement is the name of musks game

Re: Elon Musk owns Twitter: The story so far

#680

In the spirit of trying to be high-information and add value: Where Musk is going, there are no maps. So it's very very hard to project. But we can predict likely developments. At a very high level, it's going to involve: bringing back controversial personalities like Donald Trump; increasing Twitter's commitment to 'free speech'; assuaging skittish advertisers; retaining users who might be concerned, while bringing…

> cutting a large amount of staff I wonder if he needs to do this. Maybe I've just been working for tech companies in the Bay Area too long. But I don't want to work for a company where I don't have equity that I can cash out. And now all those engineers are working for a company where equity doesn't exist? An exception could be a Netflix model where you make a buttload of money. But Twitter isn't that.

It isn't that yet, presumably.
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