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Intel and the $1.5T chip industry meltdown

economist.com

671–680 of 734 posts

Re: Intel and the $1.5T chip industry meltdown

#671

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Apparently ASML's internal processes are a mess, with everything consistently blocked by technical debt. I suspect this is the biggest blocker to their ability to scale their production faster.

this makes me wish I were like the Harvey Keitel character in Pulp Fiction, so I could straighten my tie, say "I'm on it", and hop into my vintage Mercedes convertible to go fix it.

It’s a Honda and it’s not a convertible. Memory is strange.

Re: Intel and the $1.5T chip industry meltdown

#672

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It is completely unrealistic. Japan is protected by the USA. Any attacks on Japanese territory would lead to nuclear annihilation of Beijing.

What a childish and naive take. I'll be blunt and assert its pretty dumb. Firstly, completely dismissing Japan as a sovereign state. Complete disrespect. Secondly, nuclear warfare is the dumbest solution possible. Who ever fires first must accept potentially losing the trust of all nations. No matter who fires for whatever reason. Barring an alien attack or something of that magnitide. Thirdly, the US power does not…

You seem to ignore other basics, such as the military alliance agreements currently in place. These agreements are actually enacted in law and backed by the presence of thousands of American troops in Japanese territory, and in billions of dollars of yearly payment from Japan to the USA for this alliance.

Having a critical view of the world is a great thing, and I can only commend you for that. But you need to look into the facts first.

Re: Intel and the $1.5T chip industry meltdown

#673
post #446

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It looks like the thread got stuck on a technicality around the cremations. I think I still agree with the initial, wider hypothesis the poster had with > It was never a question of "no war and survive" VS "die in war" - but "no war, die anyways" VS "war, possibly survive" Especially if, like most groups of humans as were tribal, the dissolution of your tribe is almost equivalent to not surviving

> Especially if, like most groups of humans as were tribal, the dissolution of your tribe is almost equivalent to not surviving I view this as dehumanizing. I would rather live and not be an American than die while being an American. I suspect most people are the same.

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Re: Intel and the $1.5T chip industry meltdown

#674

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I know I might seem like a flat-earther with this, but I don't understand the chip crisis either. The explanation that many chipmakers went bankrupt after the automobile industry scaled down their orders seemed logical to me. But now that time has passed and we still have a chip crisis makes me think that there is something else. We know that ASML doesn't ship high tech machines to China, it only ships low tech ones.…

chips are critical for so many things, each "zone" of the world should have its own capabilities to build leading-edge chips, and probably with international collaboration on R&D (like ITER). I don't think the global economy can "fund" properly more than the current number of actors of this industry, namely each of those zones would have to consider what would be its "local" leading-edge chip manufacturing as a "mili…

Yes, I agree, but the underlying IP is top secret. No one in the world can replicate it. I believe the leading forces want it to remain this way. (China shouldn't get its hand on high tech UEV machines because they might reverse engineer them, enforce export control laws etc.)

Re: Intel and the $1.5T chip industry meltdown

#675

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The massive war with China has left obvious key issues in chip fabrication. The reason or whatever for the ongoing war with china doesn't matter. Similar factories are being built in Germany by Infineon: https://www.infineon.com/cms/en/about-infineon/press/press-r... Samsung in Texas: https://www.datacenterdynamics.com/en/news/samsung-plans-17-... Intel in Arizona: https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/23/intel-is-spending-20…

If the US was really serious about microchips being critical infrastructure we'd want over production. We have more roads than makes sense, we should have more chips on-hand than our critical power and data infrastructure needs to be rebuilt in the event of a catastrophe.

>If the US was really serious about microchips being critical infrastructure we'd want over production. We have more roads than makes sense, we should have more chips on-hand than our critical power and data infrastructure needs to be rebuilt in the event of a catastrophe.

You don't really want over production, you only want the factories and employees who know how to do the job.

That's the USA's mistake.

China's capitalist zones with very low taxes attracted all the factories because at the same time the USA was increasing taxes on the factories. What is left in the USA? Nothing. How do you wage war when you dont hold cards?

Re: Intel and the $1.5T chip industry meltdown

#676

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I rethought my reaction to Google IO conference: I found it boring because they showed things which do not have an impact on me. Like 'taking better pictures when you a person of non white color's but that's the wrong attitude. They solve great issues like this and I'm probably more underwhelmed that we even had to fix something like this because it wasn't really solved before. Let's see if/when we get a more stable…

Climate Change has been a regular constant since there was a climate

You should be intelligent enough to make the right assumption of what I'm referencing.

If you don't believe in human made climate change pls say so directly so I can ignore you

Re: Intel and the $1.5T chip industry meltdown

#677

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A fab in Ohio, Oregon, or Arizona 10,000 km from China is safe from threats like cruise missiles that the proposed fab 1000 km from China in Japan or South Korea would not be. It's not so much that cruise missiles used on civilian targets in South Korea or Japan would not be a reason to start WW3, more that it would be less tempting.

All this talk of China invading Taiwan and attacking other countries in SE Asia is bonkers. Their economy would be cut off from the rest of the world in an instant. Their commercial fishing fleets would probably be driven back to port. It would take a matter of days until they had massive internal protests. Hungry people topple governments in hours.

The same was said about the impact of sanctions on Russia -- the people would revolt. Well, it's been almost a year and they haven't, at least not at levels that the state can't easily suppress.

China can get much further than Russia can in that amount of time.

Re: Intel and the $1.5T chip industry meltdown

#678

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You can probably just ignore them as a concern at this point. Nobody is going to want to use them in new products. They might keep going as a educational novelty but the magic is gone as far as using them in commercial/industrial products.

What makes you say that? Plenty of commercial operations would use them if they could purchase them at scale

Because you can't purchase them at scale. And haven't been able to for a year. If I'm making a product I'm not going to pick something I can't get. And I'm not going to switch back once I've found something else.

Re: Intel and the $1.5T chip industry meltdown

#679

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Whether they can or not is highly questionable. "Few will really care" is certainly false. And in terms of nation states caring, that's also incorrect because Taiwan is a linchpin of US Pacific foreign policy and for the US to do nothing or "not care" about Taiwan being invaded would signal to allies in the region that they cannot count on the United States and that they should find their own defense arrangements. It…

I did mean few American voters

Is that true either? I'm not sure. We'd have to look at various polling results to start with and then go from there. I know in my previous suburban neighborhood and even moreso in my urban neighborhood that there are Ukrainian flags hung outside of doors and windows. I've never seen that before or anything like it.

https://www.axios.com/2022/08/24/american-support-ukraine-po...

Re: Intel and the $1.5T chip industry meltdown

#680

So, can someone explain to me why I can't get ANY chips for anything at all? Everything is out of stock that I use in my designs (Audio processing equipment). microprocessors, microcontrollers, ADCs, DACs, audio codecs, memory. Even bread and butter diodes were hard to source a few months ago. You name it, Mouser/Farnell/Digikey/the manufacturer doesn't have it. And if they do, it's priced at 500% MSRP. It may be "sw…

When it comes to audio, it didn't help that AKM had a factory go up in flames[1], completely destroying most of it. It seems they've managed to shift production of some popular ADCs and DACs to other manufacturers[2] recently. As for other chips, part of it is the toilet paper effect. From what I've heard, companies are buying 5x or 10x what they normally buy, just to be sure they got parts for production. Since the…

Should we create a FDIC-like mechanism for chips, to reduce companies'incentive to "bank run" their vendors? Have the federal reserve always stockpile 10% of circulating chips registered in the program.
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