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We're going to need a lot of solar panels

caseyhandmer.wordpress.com

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Re: We're going to need a lot of solar panels

#671
post #357
post #156

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's curious that you didn't actually include the calculation of what the minimum energy requirement; instead, you just assert without evidence that it is "very, very, very high". In fact this theoretical minimum is not very high; as https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Direct_air_capture#Environment... explains, it is only 250 kWh/tonne CO₂, or 900 kJ/kg in SI units. To remove the ≈60 Gt/year of anthropogenic CO₂ currently…

> Point source capture is of course much cheaper but it cannot get us to net negative CO₂ emissions. But it certainly can: by capturing on a point source that burns biological fuel. Without the burning, all the CO2 emitted (or captured) would have cycled back to the air a short time later anyways. And if you mainly do it to have a cheap carbon source to make some intermittent energy source you already have storable/t…

Oh, I guess you're right.

Re: We're going to need a lot of solar panels

#672

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Your claim was it wasn't real. Which is factually incorrect. If you mean something else you should properly articulate what you mean instead.

I mean what I said, thanks. What we're discussing is people using search engines to identify mechanics. This is not a thing that has been built. This is an idea, not a real thing. You haven't shown any actual examples of this having been built. We can see that Wikipedia page, sure, but there are lots of Wikipedia pages for things that were never built. Those are not real things. It has to have existed to be real. It'…

There are many chemical plants synthesizing chemicals in large quantities: ammonia, ethanol, etc.

Until 10 years ago, the cheapest primary fuel was all fossil fuel based, so making synthetic fuels from fossil fuels is simply a loss in efficiency.

Only in the last decade, for the first time, renewables are a cheaper form of primary energy, creating motivation for a fuel producing energy plant R&D.

BTW: instead of raging at people with your own definition of "real" and "not real" it may help to talk in terms of Technology Readiness Level as used by eg NASA. I can see why you say electricity to synthetic fuel "isn't real" but its not "not real" in the same way perpetual motion is not real.

Re: We're going to need a lot of solar panels

#673

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Your claim was it wasn't real. Which is factually incorrect. If you mean something else you should properly articulate what you mean instead.

I mean what I said, thanks. What we're discussing is people using search engines to identify mechanics. This is not a thing that has been built. This is an idea, not a real thing. You haven't shown any actual examples of this having been built. We can see that Wikipedia page, sure, but there are lots of Wikipedia pages for things that were never built. Those are not real things. It has to have existed to be real. It'…

> I mean what I said, thanks.

You said "isn't real", that's literally all you said. It's good that you have since clarified what you meant, but next time define what you mean from the start.

Either way the plant in Germany is still operational, the one Audi had. It's operated by Kiwi AG and it's located in Werlte.

> I have to to admit, it's pretty exhausting how solar fans always end up relying on devices that have never been built to explain why they're the right choice

Don't make so many assumptions. Pointing out something exists doesn't really give you any info on whether I am a solar fan or not. It also doesn't mean I believe it is the right choice.

Re: We're going to need a lot of solar panels

#674
Here is a similar project that generates kerosene and diesel from water and carbon dioxide by using a ceria-based redox reaction to convert them into hydrogen and carbon monoxide (syngas):

https://newatlas.com/energy/solar-jet-fuel-tower/

The plant created 5191 liters (1371 gallons) of syngas in 9 days, whereas a Boeing 787 Dreamliner carries 126,372 liters (36,384 gallons). The conversions are not linear, but that is something like a refueled plane every 219 days, give or take an order of magnitude. Looks like the conversion efficiency is 4% but 20% is expected after recycling heat and catalyst improvements.

I find stuff like this simultaneously inspiring and devastating. The technology has arrived to easily create our own electricity and fuel without having to deal with supply chain issues around centralized photovoltaic manufacturers, yet the size of the challenge is insurmountable. There is simply no way to scale this big enough to save the natural world before global warming destroys it at the end of the century.

So, that leaves us with nuclear power (fission). I appreciate that a lot of people have worked very hard on it and have humanity's best interests at heart. But they don't understand human psychology. We all know that we've been lied to about the safety of nuclear power, but they pretend that it can be made safe. While simultaneously avoiding discussion about the externalities like nuclear waste storage, nuclear proliferation, even the inherent security issues around large centralized power generation or what will happen after wars or other emergencies force workers to abandon nuclear facilities. So I don't trust them, and that's why I don't consider nuclear to be a viable alternative, and I have an unlimited list of evidence against it so I don't bother debating it anymore.

Which leaves us with what I feel is the actual solution. Yet again, as in most things, we have to pull ourselves up by our bootstraps. I think that we'll solve it through cultural evolution. Each of us has to get to sustainability on an individual level, then lift at least one other person (preferably someone we don't know) out of dependence. Which is still a big problem, but it's smaller than paying off a mortgage.

So everyone's gotta wake up, forget they got hoodwinked, stop listening to the wealthy and powerful people talking us out of this, and just start doing it. Be a real conservative, lead by example. Be a real liberal, pay it forward. Mourn the breakdown of our institutions that set this back 40 years. Then do something about it by evangelizing sustainability and stop voting for people who pass the buck. Help people who don't get it find their way out of cognitive dissonance.

Solarpunk is a great place to start.

Re: We're going to need a lot of solar panels

#675
post #564

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What I found cool about the synthetic natural gas, is that Europe already has really good seasonal storage of natural gas. Hence the infrastructure is available for summer-time generation of gas using solar abundance that we use in winter for heating. To my mind, it is seasonal load shifting that is Europe's long term energy problem. Winter energy demand has a bottom that needs to be met. We used to ensure this by st…

I think methanol is even a better storage candidate. https://phys.org/news/2022-06-holy-grail-catalysisturning-me...

Methanol is very nasty though. If it leaks, it leaves you blind or dead.

Re: We're going to need a lot of solar panels

#676
post #4

We're going to need a lot of solar panels and an efficient way to transport power from a very sunny place to another location where the loads are. For instance: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pacific_DC_Intertie The pacific DC intertie right now often ends up being used to transport power from hydroelectric dams in WA/OR to California. But there's nothing to say that something couldn't function the other way if there…

Look at how well Europe's dependence on Russian gas is going.

Re: We're going to need a lot of solar panels

#677

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Rooftop solar is now far more expensive than utility scale solar. As a renter who subsidies this through my electricity bills I don’t understand why I should be subsidising more artisanal scale generation for homeowners at 3x the price of utility scale solar.

Transmission costs exceed production costs in many jurisdictions. Rooftop solar can often eliminate the need for very costly distribution upgrades.

The utilities should be forced to allow rooftop solar to run during network power outages. That would be a compelling incentive for some people.

Re: We're going to need a lot of solar panels

#678

Earlier quoted context omitted.

These maintenance tasks are exactly what this discussion is about. You will do major work on roof or facades every 50 years or so. This is exactly the opportunity where you pretty much get insulation for free. After 100 years the house will have been all but structurally rebuilt once, just for upkeep reasons. You perform energetic renovations together with the upkeep tasks. And when the house is old enough, the monum…

Let me quote you: > The expected economic lifetime of a building in Germany is approximately 100 years. Which means that on average, the house will be torn down and rebuilt after at most 100 years, because additional upkeep would not make economic sense. This is just wrong. An economic lifetime of 100 years does not mean that the (on average) buildings will be torn down and rebuilt after at most 100 years. And I have…

Please don't forget that my claim is in the context of somebody else claiming that insulating all housing in Europe would at least take 100 years.

Now you are literally redefining the terms I use and then quoting them back to me to argue your new semantics, are you serious?

On average, a house is considered to last 100 years in Germany. Call it economic lifetime or whatever else you want. I still stand by that claim, as it is common knowledge. I quoted specific numbers on the housing stock which are consistent with that claim (though no proof of causation, as there are plenty of reasons why we have a lot of new stock, for example in general rising number of buildings.)

And of course the insulation is not "for free", but the additional costs are usually worth it. I also mentioned that many people decide irrationally because they do not want the work associated with planning and ordering the maintenance to be performed.

None of this matters to show that the above mentioned claim how long renovation of the current housing stock will take is completely out of the world.

Note that I am by no means a civil engineer or architect, but following the discussion and researching the topics associated with the Energiewende in the different sectors for over a decade now. I may still well be wrong in this instance. But you won't convince me of that if you try to prove me wrong on semantics and just asserting that I were intellectually unable to understand your arguments. So please also state some relevant facts and sources to support your claims if you want to try further to convince me, otherwise continuing this discussion is probably a waste of time for me as we both will probably not learn anything new. Thanks.

Re: We're going to need a lot of solar panels

#679

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We need storage now as we are burning coal and gas as replacement for energy storage.

We need to do the cheapest thing that reduces CO2 emissions. Currently I believe that's building more renewables and electrifying more sectors.

We also need to avoid a monoculture of energy source. Having all our eggs in one or two baskets is very risky.

Re: We're going to need a lot of solar panels

#680

Earlier quoted context omitted.

With all due respect, looking at your numbers my hunch is that you need better insulation. I know a person who has about 10kWp installed on a passivhaus here in latitude 59N and says that having a heat pump is overkill for them.

Yes, absolutely - the house is a pretty big country side house from 1925, not uncommon in Germany. But (almost) impossible to insulate efficiently. My estimates where €150k to €200k, just for the insulation, windows, and renewed heaters. In comparison, an 'oversized' 70 kWp PV only costs €100k, and also returns some income when not all of the power is used. The parameters widely differ between country and city: In th…

From what I've seen with old country side houses in France just insulating the roof and the windows can already bring very good results (heat lost through walls is usually only around 25% of all the losses). A quick and cheap solution for the roof is to lose the attic and blow the isolating material directly on it.
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