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Tech bubbles are bursting all over the place

economist.com

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Re: Tech bubbles are bursting all over the place

#671

Post by vecter »

taway-yc-reject wrote: post #102
prohobo wrote: post #21

People said this was the "best time ever to get funding" for a startup. I disagree. In my view, it was the best time ever if you played a particular game and had the right connections. I pitched an idea to a VC, which I had a prototype for, looking for $100k. He liked it but wouldn't fund because I didn't have a solid business plan. Fair enough, I need to find a business partner. But then he told me something about h…

Yes, exactly this. And since you aren't chummy with the VC, even if you had a business model, you would be rejected "because you don't have revenue" yet. Fuck that noise. The V in venture is supposed to mean you're supposed to take risks. SV has lost its soul. A VC that respected tech nerds would see your technical idea, (maybe) discount the investment, and then get on the phone and help you find a business partner t…

All of those things are your job as a founder. VCs don’t have enough time to help everyone who asks them for $100k, nor do they really have time to write $100k checks in general. They should be writing $2-50M checks and hoping for a 20-100x return on one or two companies per fund. That’s the nature of the game they play.

Re: Tech bubbles are bursting all over the place

#672

Post by dntrkv »

adam_arthur wrote: post #647
shakezula wrote: post #634

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> That is plainly obvious to any rational minded person No, it’s not. There was a real economic crisis, and hindsight alone allows you to take that position.

There were 4 major bills passed, as well as many executive actions. This was not a one time piece of legislation that caused inflation. The latest major bill, $2T dollars worth, was passed 1 full year after Covid lockdowns started... at a time where markets were reaching bubble levels, housing was appreciating at a double digit rate, unemployment rate was already dropping .5-1% per month. Student loans are still in f…

And there were a ton of voices saying the exact opposite. That we must do everything we can to avoid another 2008.

There will always be the voices on both sides, the problem is that it's not always easy to know who to listen to at the time.

> The feel good policy of spending excessively and avoiding inflation fighting has proven to fail many times in history

There are many examples of the opposite.

The question isn't whether we spend or not, it's how much. That's the difficult part to get, especially in a democracy (doubly so in the US political system where you try to get as much done in the half a year that you can actually govern).

Re: Tech bubbles are bursting all over the place

#673

Post by serenitylater »

prohobo wrote: post #111
triceratops wrote: post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What's your project? $100k seems like an odd amount of money to ask for, to me. You can't staff up very much with that, but it seems like a lot of money to pay for AWS/hosting-type bills when you're just starting out ($10-30k should be more than enough). It only makes sense (again, to me) if what you really want is access to the VC and their network. But again, I don't know shit about VC and angel investing.

It was odd, but my envisioned development window was about 3-4 months (planning for 6) and I had potentially high upkeep after launch ($500-$1000pm for production ready servers). I could have found a co-founder or two and funded them for that period as well. So it would have been just enough + a buffer. At least in my mind. I realize you need more runway than to just get to launch and survive 2-3 months now. The idea…

Sounds to me like your idea is just kind of lame and thinking it would be amazingly profitable is a bit of a stretch.

Re: Tech bubbles are bursting all over the place

#674

Post by rhizome »

xhevahir wrote: post #532
Robotbeat wrote: post #418

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don’t think the government being inefficient is good. It gives ammo to those who are ideologically opposed to government doing things. We should strive to improve government efficiency, especially those of us who think the government should be taking on more tasks.

I'm guessing the inefficiency-is-good formulation was chosen for rhetorical effect rather than because OP believes inefficiency is good in itself.

Sure yeah, but to be sure, inefficiency is a side effect of the complexity.

Re: Tech bubbles are bursting all over the place

#675

Post by rhizome »

briandear wrote: post #523
Robotbeat wrote: post #418

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don’t think the government being inefficient is good. It gives ammo to those who are ideologically opposed to government doing things. We should strive to improve government efficiency, especially those of us who think the government should be taking on more tasks.

Ideological opposition to extensive government is because government is inefficient. See the Laffer Curve. Actual demonstrated inefficiency is the proof, not the justification.

Laffer Curve, really? The inefficiency is neither proof nor justification, it's a side-effect of fairness.

Re: Tech bubbles are bursting all over the place

#676

Post by astrange »

gruez wrote: post #625
astrange wrote: post #611

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It shouldn't have stopped them from maintenance though; they just didn't feel like doing maintenance. If a company wants to spend money on something they can always get a loan for it and consider issuing the shares out again later if needed. The problem with a share buyback is if you do it and then the share price falls again.

>The problem with a share buyback is if you do it and then the share price falls again. how's that a problem? I get it might seem like you're back to square one if you did a buyback early this year, and the recent market crash brought the share price to before the buyback, but you still permanently: 1. paid out money to the shareholders who sold 2. increased the ownership stake of the remaining shareholders

If it falls again, it's not value neutral anymore - it's a transfer to whoever sold. So then the complaint that you could've used the money on maintenance against poisoning babies becomes true.

Re: Tech bubbles are bursting all over the place

#677

Post by cantrevealname »

QuarterReptile wrote: post #636
lumost wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Across every investment class there has been a trend of buyers needing to become more financially irresponsible in order to participate in the market. Need to buy a house? bid 20% more than asking, if you don't - someone else will.. in cash. Need to build a ride-hailing app? prepare to pay people to ride indefinitely. Need to own a growth stock? prepare to pay upwards of 100x multiple on revenue. All around, there ha…

Best explanation I've seen of this phenomenon, why it's bad for all involved parties, and knock him effects. It's focused on place making/urban development, but it lines up completely. https://podcast.strongtowns.org/e/strip-mall/

It would be very useful to have a one or two paragraph summary here. I think that very few people are going to listen to an hour long podcast without knowing something more about the ideas.

Re: Tech bubbles are bursting all over the place

#678

Post by ildon »

photochemsyn wrote: post #332
chinchilla2020 wrote: post #128

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Management people have built careers and fortunes in tech running sinking companies. Even within FAANG, many people build careers while working on sinking products (Most products in Google are revenue negative...)

According to the article, FAANG is an obsolete acronym, it's now MAMAA...

Just killed a man...

Re: Tech bubbles are bursting all over the place

#679

Post by techie128 »

SauciestGNU wrote: post #290
Robotbeat wrote: post #202

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What sucks is that fiscal policy, ie government spending, is also often not very efficient. Even when rampant corruption doesn’t destroy efficiency, crushing bureaucracy or just plain incompetence will. (Is the DMV a model of efficiency?) So you need a smart balance. And you need competent, honest people in both business AND government. I don’t think that government necessarily is inefficient. The DMV could be a very…

People keep using the DMV as an example of government inefficiency, but my state has made it run so painlessly I don't think I've spent more than 15 minutes in an office over the last 5 years. I think government can be efficient if you put technocrats in charge of implementation rather than elected officials who are subject to the electoral whims of the uninformed masses. The problem with the above is it weakens demo…

Not that I don't believe you, but can you name this mythical state?

Re: Tech bubbles are bursting all over the place

#680

Post by phasersout »

formerkrogemp wrote: post #664
cableshaft wrote: post #553

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're being sarcastic, but we probably don't need that stuff either. We're eventually going to run out of resources to make all that at some point (we're already starting to run out of sand[1], which we use in modern cement, for glass, and for the silicon in computer chips, for an example -- and before anyone goes 'deserts are full of sand!' they are, but it's the wrong type to make these things). Probably should st…

Ah yes, that old study/book "The Limits to Growth" from 1972. How it haunts me still. Along with the first IPCC report I read 10 years ago. I do wonder what the future (present) holds. Of course, you're right about running out of sand. I hope our standard of living doesn't fall that much. In my lifetime. As was said by everyone for a century.

I believe we reached peak earth in the last two years. It's not just sand or food but also the logistics - people say it's the pandemic stupid or it's obviously the war - but these are all just catalysts.

Too many people just want too much shit. 7 billion people are really not that many - but 7 billion people who wants to live like Westerners that's a big problem.

All the while we are still living in the age of exploitation. We can build marvelous things now but our recycling is still stuck somewhere in the medieval ages...

This whole party can only last if the recycling of an iPhone becomes as financially sexy as building one...

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