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Goodbye, New York, California and Illinois – Hello where?

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Re: Goodbye, New York, California and Illinois – Hello where?

#671

Post by jefftk »

jefftk wrote: post #647
m_ke wrote: post #150

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Here's a link with some more data https://streeteasy.com/blog/nycs-unsold-condos/ . The rezoning and redevelopment of the queens and brooklyn waterfronts brought a ton of new high rise condos with it. I live in northern brooklyn and there's a new condo building being built on almost every block. At the same time there's more vacant storefronts than I've ever seen and the only businesses getting by are coffee shops, h…

Your article talks about 16k condos over 6y, which is ~3k/y. That's not zero, but that's really not very much housing compared to the ~8M population of NYC. I know this isn't the total of New York housing construction, but it's so little you wouldn't expect it to help much. For example, during the 1920s NYC was building housing at about 7%/y! Housing was much cheaper then, and through the period of low demand, but wh…

I found total construction numbers: ~25k new units in 2017, depending on how you count (https://www1.nyc.gov/assets/rentguidelinesboard/pdf/18HSR.pd...)

That's only about 0.3% housing growth.

Re: Goodbye, New York, California and Illinois – Hello where?

#672

Post by dllthomas »

JamesBarney wrote: post #638
dragonwriter wrote: post #372

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> For a family with $85,000 a year, getting rid of state tax could mean an extra several hundred dollars a month in income. It could, if you could take the $85,000/year job with you. Pay for similar skills in the lower CoL states is also notably lower, though.

Which is accounted for by the lower CoL. I've had a couple of recruiters call me about jobs in San Francisco so I checked the CoL, and the CoL difference between San Fran and Houston is over a 100%. And companies weren't willing to pay double the rates they are here.

If you're turning a profit in Houston, and you double what you're spending, you don't need to double your pay to be turning a larger profit.

Re: Goodbye, New York, California and Illinois – Hello where?

#673

Post by kls »

seanmcdirmid wrote: post #591
kls wrote: post #513

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Up until recently Dallas / Ft. Worth and Miami where conservative. The Cubans that fled communism held Miami as a conservative metro up until about 15-20 years ago. Orlando and Tampa where the same. Orlando for different reasons but Tampa was largely due to the conservative Cubans as well. Texas and Florida are two of the states that are experiencing meteoric growth and to imply that those moving in are not shifting…

Miami has never been conservative, at most they had some conservative Cubans, who hardly ever had a plurality in the area. Dallas has never been co see stove either, that is what Ft. Worth and it’s suburbs were for. Texas really wants a tech industry, which is why it is importing lots of liberals. By that I mean these people don’t move to Texas to be in Texas, rather they were lured their by great job opportunities.

The last two mayors of Miami have been Cuban Republicans. The city manager is a Republican, several of the commissioner seats are occupied by republicans. One could argue that currently Miami leans conservative. Marco Rubio represents Miami, to claim that Miami does not, at times, swing conservative is to ignore the clear facts that it does and much of that is due to the conservative Cubans.

Re: Goodbye, New York, California and Illinois – Hello where?

#674

Post by jefftk »

defen wrote: post #578
malandrew wrote: post #294

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Don't get me started on this. I helped an friend get into below market rate (BMR) housing in SF. She paid approximately $330k with almost no money down for a 2 bedroom, 2 bath condo in the center of Hayes Valley. Today, equivalent market rate units in her building sell for $1.5k to $2m. Basically, there is a supply of homes that are available to you at three points: 70%, 90% and 110% of the median income. How these t…

> She paid approximately $330k with almost no money down for a 2 bedroom, 2 bath condo in the center of Hayes Valley. Today, equivalent market rate units in her building sell for $1.5k to $2m. How does that work if/when she wants to sell the place? Is there some sort of cap on what she can sell it for?

There are several ways to handle this, but a common one is to have a deed restriction that sets a maximum resale price and requires the buyer to meet income eligibility criteria.

I wrote some about this, and about how I'm worried that wealthy people could abuse this, in https://www.jefftk.com/p/affordable-housing-workarounds

Re: Goodbye, New York, California and Illinois – Hello where?

#675

Post by jayd16 »

GhettoChild wrote: post #256
jayd16 wrote: post #202

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You'll spend the time and effort to move for a couple grand a year? Does that really make sense? How many years does it take to break even?

It makes sense when you are also significantly decreasing your cost of living at the same time in addition to cutting taxes and want to purchase a home something that really isn'y possible in NYC or the bay on that income but is easily possible in a state with low cost of living.

Cost of living, sure, but in this thread we're discussing how significant the tax aspect actually is.

Re: Goodbye, New York, California and Illinois – Hello where?

#676

Post by danans »

reilly3000 wrote: post #482
danans wrote: post #337

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> see Californians representing big houses, loose morals, and heavy traffic. I seriously doubt any place can make a defensible claim to high morals anymore, but big houses as a stereotype for California? I think that applies way more to Idaho. Space is too expensive for most people to live in big houses in CA. If anything, they go to lower population density states like TX and the South to get the bigger houses avail…

I was referring to the big houses they can easily buy when moving to the PNW. Its very common for somebody who was struggling to afford an $800K mortgage on a 3bd/2ba in CA to get a 6bd on 2 acres with a lovely view and a smaller mortgage in the PNW.

Anecdotally most people I know who have made that move just want the modest home they couldn't afford in CA, not a mini-mansion. Many have realized that owning a huge house beyond your actual needs is a maintenance nightmare.

Re: Goodbye, New York, California and Illinois – Hello where?

#677

Post by jefftk »

jefftk wrote: post #671
jefftk wrote: post #647

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Your article talks about 16k condos over 6y, which is ~3k/y. That's not zero, but that's really not very much housing compared to the ~8M population of NYC. I know this isn't the total of New York housing construction, but it's so little you wouldn't expect it to help much. For example, during the 1920s NYC was building housing at about 7%/y! Housing was much cheaper then, and through the period of low demand, but wh…

I found total construction numbers: ~25k new units in 2017, depending on how you count ( https://www1.nyc.gov/assets/rentguidelinesboard/pdf/18HSR.pd... ) That's only about 0.3% housing growth.

Sorry, I used 8M people as the denominator for growth instead of 3.5M units, so it's more like 0.7%

Re: Goodbye, New York, California and Illinois – Hello where?

#678

Post by ttwwmm »

inferiorhuman wrote: post #433
ttwwmm wrote: post #232

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Weird is certainly the word for it. The SF real estate catastrophe is pushing up prices here, particularly the south end of the county, while (in the small tech scene at least) salaries haven't adjusted. I've lived here since 2011 but I don't think I would start here today. But of course, anyone who bought a house 20 years ago is just fine since their costs are fixed. Renters and recent buyers pick up the tax bill. T…

Housing prices are going up in Sonoma because nobody is building houses (in SF, Sonoma, or any of the other counties in the 9-county Bay Area). Sonoma needs to build as much (well, more thanks to PG&E) as anywhere else out here.

Yes, absolutely. I'd add that this area loves its urban growth boundaries, so the only way to add lots of housing is to build up. This makes the carve-out in SB-50 for counties with a population under 600,000 problematic, in my view.

Re: Goodbye, New York, California and Illinois – Hello where?

#679

Post by wwweston »

asdff wrote: post #620
wwweston wrote: post #113

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If we're making assertions contrary to data and treading on unfalsifiable positions, then I suppose the source is anecdotes, and I suppose mine are as good as any: I lived in Los Angeles in the early 90s for two years, and visited frequently through the rest of the decade. Experienced petty crime on at least 3 occasions, had a few close calls with violent crime, saw the Rodney King riots unfold, and heard some pretty…

Depends on where you live. Hancock park? Sure, no petty crime other than burglaries. Pretty much anywhere else but the most bougie neighborhoods are rife with petty crime. When I flew for the holidays my bike was stolen out of a gated garage. LAPD isn't going to jump on a grenade for my bike. Cars parked along the street are regularly targeted for smash and grabs. The nearby encampment maintains a cache of torn apart…

Huh. My recent time's been on the west side too, my neighborhoods have been decidedly middle-of-the-road (def not most bougie), transport stops close, homeless people camping nearby fairly common, sometimes in alcoves of my current building. Still haven't drawn the property crime lottery. The biggest thing for me, though, has been visiting places like Carson, Gardena, and Inglewood realizing they seem safer (though safer than the early 90s might not be a really high bar).

Sorry about the bike, though, maybe that's a signal for me to be a little less casual with stuff in the garage, and I definitely feel you about encounters with people on public transport.

Re: Goodbye, New York, California and Illinois – Hello where?

#680

Post by jefftk »

jefftk wrote: post #677
jefftk wrote: post #671

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I found total construction numbers: ~25k new units in 2017, depending on how you count ( https://www1.nyc.gov/assets/rentguidelinesboard/pdf/18HSR.pd... ) That's only about 0.3% housing growth.

Sorry, I used 8M people as the denominator for growth instead of 3.5M units, so it's more like 0.7%

Expanded this into a post: https://www.jefftk.com/p/is-nyc-building-much-housing
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