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The Singularity will occur on a Tuesday

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Re: The Singularity will occur on a Tuesday

#661

Post by willis936 »

danielmarkbruce wrote: post #551
willis936 wrote: post #476

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Google is making millions of TPUs per year. Nvidia ships more gaming GPUs, but it's not like multiple orders of magnitude off.

You are missing his point. They very likely don't start building TPUs if there were no GPUs.

I'm not missing the point. If you recall your computer architecture class there are many vector processing architectures out there. Long before there was nvidia the world's largest and most expensive computers were vector processors. It's inaccurate to say "gaming built SIMD".

Re: The Singularity will occur on a Tuesday

#662

Post by zombot »

bee_rider wrote: post #134
nine_k wrote: post #118

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> * enough people believe it will happen and act accordingly* Here comes my favorite notion of "epistemic takeover". A crude form: make everybody believe that you have already won. A refined form: make everybody believe that everybody else believes that you have already won. That is, even if one has doubts about your having won, they believe that everyone else submit to you as a winner, and must act accordingly.

This world where everybody’s very concerned with that “refined form” is annoying and exhausting. It causes discussions to become about speculative guesses about everybody else’s beliefs, not actual facts. In the end it breeds cynicism as “well yes, the belief is wrong, but everybody is stupid and believes it anyway,” becomes a stop-gap argument. I don’t know how to get away from it because ultimately coordination dep…

You could say that AI has become the new religion. Plus the concomitant opiate for the masses.

Re: The Singularity will occur on a Tuesday

#663

Post by mlrtime »

famouswaffles wrote: post #504
pbhjpbhj wrote: post #467

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Do you think you could publish that in a paper for ext ? You seem to think it's not 'just' tensor arithmetic. Have you read any of the seminal papers on neutral networks, say? It's [complex] pattern matching as the parent said. If you want models to draw composite shapes based on letter forms and typography then you need to train them (or at least fine-tune them) to do that. I still get opposite (antonym) confusion…

>You seem to think it's not 'just' tensor arithmetic. If I asked you to explain how a car works and you responded with a lecture on metallic bonding in steel, you wouldn’t be saying anything false, but you also wouldn’t be explaining how a car works. You’d be describing an implementation substrate, not a mechanism at the level the question lives at. Likewise, “it’s tensor arithmetic” is a statement about what the com…

I think what you two are going back and forth on is the heated debate in AI research regarding Emergent Abilities. Specifically, whether models actually develop "sudden" new powers as they scale, or if those jumps are just a mirage caused by how we measure them.

Re: The Singularity will occur on a Tuesday

#664

Post by Nemrod67 »

AndrewKemendo wrote: post #84
stego-tech wrote: post #28

This is delightfully unhinged, spending an amazing amount of time describing their model and citing their methodologies before getting to the meat of the meal many of us have been braying about for years: whether the singularity actually happens or not is irrelevant so much as whether enough people believe it will happen and act accordingly. And, yep! A lot of people absolutely believe it will and are acting accordin…

The goal is to eliminate humans as the primary actors on the planet entirely At least that’s my personal goal If we get to the point where I can go through my life and never interact with another human again, and work with a bunch of machines and robots to do science and experiments and build things to explore our world and make my life easier and safer and healthier and more sustainable, I would be absolutely thrill…

took a bit of time to read your work, interesting stuff even if it triggers people XD

the full realization of Humanity's potential indeed needs to permit such Choice that you could live your whole life without seeing another Human.

I still think we can build something better, rather than hope for AI or Alien overlords taking us to the next step ;)

Re: The Singularity will occur on a Tuesday

#665

Post by Nemrod67 »

AndrewKemendo wrote: post #345
justonepost1 wrote: post #266

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nobody can stop you from having this view, I suppose. But what gives you the right to impose this (lack of) future on billions of humans with friends and families and ambitions and interests who, to say the least, would not be in favor of “human obviation”?

You should probably build an organization that can counter it

Becoming that which they would fight against might be a good strategy to get masses to move XD

if we can not do the things they are afraid of and just pretend we do :p

Re: The Singularity will occur on a Tuesday

#666

Post by mlrtime »

bheadmaster wrote: post #230
OkayPhysicist wrote: post #104

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> We really have no idea how did ability to have a conversation emerge from predicting the next token. Maybe you don't. To be clear, this is benefiting massively from hindsight, just as how if I didn't know that combustion engines worked, I probably wouldn't have dreamed up how to make one, but the emergent conversational capabilities from LLMs are pretty obvious. In a massive dataset of human writing, the answer to…

> Maybe you don't. My best friend who has literally written a doctorate on artificial intelligence doesn't. If you do, please write a paper on it, and email it to me. My friend would be thrilled to read it.

I don't know much about this space other than a user of Claude and a Electrical Engineering background...

However reading some Standford study summaries (not the whole thing) and just generally where AI research is now, it's clear that researchers can't deterministically say exactly how the black box works.

So yet gain, HN armchair scientists are no better than any other topic. I love reading comments here, but so many people have opinions on things that aren't well founded.

Re: The Singularity will occur on a Tuesday

#667

Post by bluegatty »

threethirtytwo wrote: post #257
stego-tech wrote: post #28

This is delightfully unhinged, spending an amazing amount of time describing their model and citing their methodologies before getting to the meat of the meal many of us have been braying about for years: whether the singularity actually happens or not is irrelevant so much as whether enough people believe it will happen and act accordingly. And, yep! A lot of people absolutely believe it will and are acting accordin…

I don’t think you’re rational. Part of being able to be unbiased is to see it in yourself. First of all. Nobody knows how LLMs work. Whether the singularity comes or not cannot be rationalized from what we know about LLMs because we simply don’t understand LLMs. This is unequivocal. I am not saying I don’t understand LLMs. I’m saying humanity doesn’t understand LLMs in much the same way we don’t understand the human…

this is wrong

Re: The Singularity will occur on a Tuesday

#668

Post by imtringued »

jpadkins wrote: post #115
stego-tech wrote: post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

History paints a pretty clear picture of the tradeoff: * Profits now and violence later OR * Little bit of taxes now and accelerate easier Unfortunately we’ve developed such a myopic, “FYGM” society that it’s explicitly the former option for the time being.

Do you have a historical example of "Little bit of taxes now and accelerate easier"? I can't think of any.

Miracle of Wörgl [0]

[0] https://unterguggenberger.org/the-free-economy-experiment-of...

Re: The Singularity will occur on a Tuesday

#670

Post by baxtr »

kristiandupont wrote: post #653
baxtr wrote: post #409

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I love that you brought this up. Chickens are killed ALL the time. It’s a recurring mass event. If you were a smart chicken you could see that pattern and put it into a formula. In contrast, the end of Humanity would be a singular event. It’s even in the name… And that is fiction / speculation in comparison. It’s not backed by any data. Human survival over 300,000 years by contrast is. I mean it’s fine to dream thing…

The point of that thought exercise is to show that reasoning by induction is flawed. As best I can tell, you discount it with further induction.

Thank you for pointing this out. It’s a good catch.

But if we’re starting to discuss basics... As firm Popperian I am definitely not a proponent of induction.

However comparing us with a chicken is highly problematic to begin with.

I would argue that anyone using the Russell Chicken as a reason to fear AI is making a category error.

They are treating intelligence as a process of induction (collecting data to predict the future) rather than explanation (creating new ideas to solve problems).

The stupid chicken had a bad theory about reality and it got killed for it. But we’re humans that have problem solving techniques not chicken.

We can create hypotheses and test these. Like asking ourselves why we find dinosaurs. Then we create a hypothesis and try to falsify it… the scientific process. That’s not what the chicken did.

If it was a smart (human-like) chicken living on a farm with many other chickens (more realistic if you ask me), it might have come up with a theory about humans and would fail to falsify it every time a friend of hers died.

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