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Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff?

economist.com

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Re: Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff?

#661

Post by lotsofpulp »

reactordev wrote: post #660
bluefirebrand wrote: post #628

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I hope they realize that they are probably going to have to take their fair share with violence because right now that is probably the only thing the wealthy class will listen to

If it has to come to that… People still have the power. Always have. They just need a reason to wield it.

Not in a democracy where the population age histogram gets top heavy and the old vote themselves more and more of the young’s income, explicitly via taxes and implicitly via backstopping asset prices at the expense of the currency’s purchasing power (since wage increases lag asset price increases).

The old need a way to maintain a socioeconomic order where they can continue to get labor from the young, but demographics are going to make that harder and harder.

Re: Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff?

#662

Post by reactordev »

array_key_first wrote: post #632
reactordev wrote: post #338

Earlier quoted context omitted.

At some point you are going to have to grow up and take matters into your own hands instead of blaming everyone for your situation. I’m not old. Just wise.

This is so clique it's painful. Just grow up. Bootstraps! I did it, why can't you? Well first off, you didn't do it, you got fucked up the ass and asked for more. Your parents and their parents lived in an America where one person could own a home, multiple cars, and care for a large family. They lived in an America where layoffs did not exist, where shareholders were at the bottom of the totem pole, and where compan…

So do something about it

Re: Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff?

#663

Post by reactordev »

lotsofpulp wrote: post #661
reactordev wrote: post #660

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If it has to come to that… People still have the power. Always have. They just need a reason to wield it.

Not in a democracy where the population age histogram gets top heavy and the old vote themselves more and more of the young’s income, explicitly via taxes and implicitly via backstopping asset prices at the expense of the currency’s purchasing power (since wage increases lag asset price increases). The old need a way to maintain a socioeconomic order where they can continue to get labor from the young, but demographi…

You’re not wrong and it’s going to be an interesting next 20 years when there isn’t the young population to prop up the old due to economic depression.

Re: Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff?

#664

Post by agentultra »

dtech wrote: post #218
agentultra wrote: post #125

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We haven’t passed the stage where we convince policy makers to stop dumping greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. We’re not going to convince anyone to keep hiring software developers. I think we ought to be keeping people trained and employed but it seems we’re not on the winning side here.

> I think we ought to be keeping people trained and employed I never understood this sentiment. We don't have a massive manual weaving industry anymore, 95%+ of people used to be farmers in 1900. Tech comes and replaces humans, and the transition can be extremely painful especially for the people replaced, but ultimately it's better than keeping people artificially employed in obsolete jobs. (I don't think SWE will b…

This is predicated on the myth that people can re-skill and move into new industries. Sure the former can happen and people can learn new things. But we're talking about an economy where there are no new industries. And an economy where you have to work in order to live.

What's a software developer in their 30s, 40s, and 50s supposed to re-skill into? Take on debt for the rest of their lives and re-skill into a profession (if they can even afford to take several years out of their lives to go back to school)? Into blue collar work along with the salary cut for which they might not have the physical capabilities for?

There's no social system for providing the necessities for living.

The other side of it is skill. Human societies have lost knowledge before. We've had to rediscover various aspects of metallurgy before. We could lose the ability to understand the technology we've made if we trust everything to the LLMs. There are already vibecoders who don't even be able to review the code that it generates for them because they're starting to lose the critical faculties and skills to understand it.

Re: Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff?

#665

Post by hzcker_na »

no, but the purchasing power of americans is already lowering due to the taxes on imports introduced by donald trump, by chocking supply the demand has to be filled by fewer local american companies or the extra artifical cost will have to be passed onto american workers, the deportation of illegal immigrants will increase wages due to the decreased supply of workers, which could offset it.

Re: Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff?

#666

Post by codyklimdev »

nomendos wrote: post #639

I see hardest job market ever. Since 2023 I had ~dozen interviews and 0% up to offer pass rate (half fully passed interviews, with no offer at the end due to variety of cases like money change of mind, other candidates won, ghosting,..)! Up to recent couple years I had over 90% interview passing rate, even in dot com and 2010 (when I had 6 companies interview with 6 offers). I am 55y with rich experience vertically (…

I haven't been around for much (27 y.o. with 4 y.o.e.) but I've applied for probably 500 jobs in the past 6 months, and had maybe 4 interviews out of it. It's tough out here.

Re: Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff?

#667

Post by DrPimienta »

ryandrake wrote: post #545
lotsofpulp wrote: post #519

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>If you are offered a 401k, you have the means to max it out. Given rent, saving for house downpayment, student loan payments, auto loan payments, and possible childcare/healthcare costs, I don’t think we live in the same reality (based on income statistics). Perhaps you are only referring to doctors/software engineers/lawyers/IB/PE employees? >I’m not telling you to forgo partying. I’m telling you to pay yourself fi…

> Given rent, saving for house downpayment, student loan payments, auto loan payments, and possible childcare/healthcare costs, I don’t think we live in the same reality (based on income statistics). These things all come after savings, not before. If you can't afford them using post-saving money, then you need to get a better job, or a cheaper living conditions. Easier said than done, I totally agree, especially now…

Rent comes after savings? Are you insane? And what if there are no better jobs that allow you to afford both rent and savings, as rent has increased for decades while wages have remained stagnant?

Why can't you just admit that millions of young people are being intentionally screwed out of what we consider to be a basic standard of living?

Re: Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff?

#668

Post by brightball »

itake wrote: post #211
brightball wrote: post #94

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There was talk of it. I believe the H.I.R.E. Act that’s been proposed is supposed to add a 25% fee to outsourcing overseas.

Probably a step in the right direction. But if you can hire someone abroad for 20% of the cost of an American worker, then instead of replacing one American with five workers, you replace them with four.

The range difference really depends on where you are too. Unless you're chopping wood, you still need competent people with the right skill set and ability to communicate. When controlling for that I find it's much closer unless you're in SV/Austin/NY.

Re: Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff?

#669

Post by DrPimienta »

shagie wrote: post #608
dsmark wrote: post #599

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Wage suppression

Could you elaborate on how wages of native French speaking language teachers are being suppressed? Or that nurses in North Dakota are not getting jobs because the hospital is going through the process of hiring a qualified nurse under the H-1B program? I'm not saying that the teachers or nurses are not underpaid - they should be paid more, but the ability for the organization to pay them more is often constrained by…

If they bring in tons of new French language teachers and nurses, that suppresses the wages of people here. Those companies would have to raise wages to find workers, and if there aren't any workers, they'd have to raise wages to fight for what few workers there are, which might help some of our OWN UNEMPLOYED PEOPLE find LUCRATIVE WORK as they see they can become a nurse or language teacher and make a healthy living doing so.

The only people who need immigrants are greedy businesses. It makes life worse for literally everyone else in a nation.

Re: Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff?

#670

Post by DrPimienta »

j-bos wrote: post #401
taylorhou wrote: post #397

996 - it's a global marketplace of talent and very few in America are willing to work 996. If you are, you either are the founder type or young and unshackled.

I worked with what are effectively 996ers in software, they largely drag on projects because they value neither their own time nor anyone else's.

This is my experience as well. For a lot of these people, it's performative. Just kind of existing at work for 12 hours is "getting work done" to them, despite the fact it's life destroying for pretty much everyone that has an actual life to live.

It's really disgusting and harms most people.

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