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OpenAI’s Windsurf deal is off, and Windsurf’s CEO is going to Google

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Re: OpenAI’s Windsurf deal is off, and Windsurf’s CEO is going to Google

#661
post #557

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Comparison should be with Claude API pricing. It doesn't matter what other models cost.

Claude API pricing has significant margin baked in. I think it's safe to assume that anthropic is getting 80% margin on their api and they are selling claude code for less than that.

I assumed I pay a premium for a Max account to not have to worry about api costs getting stuck in a forever loop.

Re: OpenAI’s Windsurf deal is off, and Windsurf’s CEO is going to Google

#662
post #429

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>What does Cursor/Windsurf offer over VS Code + CC? A lot of devs are not superstar devs. They don't want a terminal tool, or anything they have to configure. A IDE you can just download and 'it just works' has value. And there are companies that will pay.

A lot of engineers underestimate the learning curve required to jump from IDE to terminal. Multiple generations of engineers were raised on IDEs. It's really hard to break that mental model.

Yes.

A simple example is GIT. Many insist on using standalone GUI/IDE panels for a simple fetch/push rather than just using terminal.

Re: OpenAI’s Windsurf deal is off, and Windsurf’s CEO is going to Google

#663

Cursor (and Garry Tan’s X post) has shown us that the VC money is propping up these companies astounding growth, the only way for them to become profitable is to increase the cost per a request, which means they need to innovate like crazy. The moat is paper thin. GitHub has open sourced copilot. The open source community is working hard on their own projects. No doubt Cursor is moving fast to create amazing innovati…

There is no moat. If you’re a true believer that strong agents are around the corner, then all of these add on companies will be obsolete in a few years. The first company to strong agents can trivially rebuild Cursor or Windsurf.

I am saying the subsidies tokens are the paper thin moat.

Re: OpenAI’s Windsurf deal is off, and Windsurf’s CEO is going to Google

#664

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Wait a minute, have you often run out of the gemini cli free daily quota? Their free quota is very generous because they are trying to get market/mind share.

it switches to flash almost immediately like in 10-15 mins . flash sucks. And even switching is not smooth either. for me when the switch happens it just get stuck sitting there so i have to restart cli.

OK, thanks, I understand now what is happening. I use gemini-cli for one specific task at a time and sometimes just one 5 to 10 minute session a day. If I use long work sessions then I will add my API key and pay.

Re: OpenAI’s Windsurf deal is off, and Windsurf’s CEO is going to Google

#665

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Agreed on everything. Just to add, not only anthropic is offering CC at like a 500% loss, they restricted sonnet/opus 4 access to windsurf, and jacked up their enterprise deal to Cursor. The increase in price was so big that it forced cursor to make that disastrous downgrade to their plans. I think only way Cursor and other UX wrappers still win is if on device models or at least open source models catch up in the ne…

Seems like the survival strategy for cursor would be to develop their own frontier coding model. Maybe they can leverage the data from their still somewhat significant lead in the space to make a solid effort.

Windsurf has developed their own fron tier model. It's pretty good. It's not sota but it's very well aligned with their tool call formatting etc.

Re: OpenAI’s Windsurf deal is off, and Windsurf’s CEO is going to Google

#666
post #219

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don’t think that’s a viable strategy. It is very very hard and not many people can do it. Just look at how much Meta is paying to poach the few people in the world capable of training a next gen frontier model.

Why are there actually only a few people in the world able to do this? The basic concept is out there. Lots of smart people studying hard to catch up to also be poached. No shortage of those I assume. Good trainingsdata still seems the most important to me. (and lots of hardware) Or does the specific training still involves lots of smart decisions all the time? And those small or big decisions make all the difference…

It's a staggeringly bad deal. It's a hugely expensive task where unless you are the literal best in the world, you would never even see any usage. And even for those who are BOTH best and well known they have to be willing to lose billions on repeat with no end in sight.

It's very very rare to have winner takes all to such an extreme degree as code llm models

Re: OpenAI’s Windsurf deal is off, and Windsurf’s CEO is going to Google

#667

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Seems like the survival strategy for cursor would be to develop their own frontier coding model. Maybe they can leverage the data from their still somewhat significant lead in the space to make a solid effort.

> to develop their own frontier coding model Uh, the irony is that this is exactly what Windsurf tried.

As an actual user of Windsurf model, I don't think "tried" is fair. I sometimes use it. It's not as smart as Gemini but it iterates quicker and is very well aligned with their tool calls

Re: OpenAI’s Windsurf deal is off, and Windsurf’s CEO is going to Google

#669
post #595
post #568

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> yet another wrapper around LLM APIs Patio11 famously built, ran for a number of years (profitably) and then sold a "wrapper for a random number generator" (bingocardcreator.com) Value is in the eye of the beholder, and only tangentially related to the technical complexity or ingenuity.

I'm not arguing in favor of technical complexity or ingenuity. My point is that the perceived value of a service or product is directly related to its competitive advantage, product differentiation, and so on. When the service is made from the same cookie cutter template as all the others, the only value that can be extracted from it is by duping customers who don't know better. There are entire industries flooded wi…

> When the service is made from the same cookie cutter template as all the others,

You're conflating "underlying tech" and "cookie cutter template".

The fact that something uses the same LLM under the hood as some other product doesn't mean it's not differentiated.

Re: OpenAI’s Windsurf deal is off, and Windsurf’s CEO is going to Google

#670

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I seriously cannot keep up. I fell a bit behind and now I feel I need a primer to know who owns/acquired/developed all these additional things surrounding the ai space

That information is as important as knowing about soap opera characters.

Not so, you need to know how long you have until they shut it down.
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