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The ‘white-collar bloodbath’ is all part of the AI hype machine

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Re: The ‘white-collar bloodbath’ is all part of the AI hype machine

#661

I think the real white collar bloodbath is that the end of ZIRP was the end of infinite software job postings, and the start of layoffs. I think its easy to now point to AI, but it seems like a canard for the huge thing that already happened. just look at this: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1JmOr In terms of magnitude the effect of this is just enormous and still being felt, and never recovered to pre-2020 lev…

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Trump didnt kick off the layoffs.

It was the war with Russia that drove the fed to raise interest rates in 2022 - a measure that was intended to curb inflation triggered by spikes in the prices of economic inputs (gas, oil, fertilizer, etc.).

The tech layoffs started later that year.

Widespread job cuts are an intended effect of raising interest rates - more unemployed = less spending = keeps a lid on inflation.

AI is just cashing in on the trend.

Re: The ‘white-collar bloodbath’ is all part of the AI hype machine

#662

Earlier quoted context omitted.

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Why would it have anything to do with AI? Generative AI has been widely used for two years and the drop is exactly around January 20. What happened in AI around that time?

Re: The ‘white-collar bloodbath’ is all part of the AI hype machine

#663

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Keynes suggested that by 2030, we’d be working 15 hour workweeks, with the rest of the time used for leisure. Instead, we chose consumption, and helicopter money gave us bullshit jobs so we could keep buying more bullshit. This is fairly evident by the fact when the helicopter money runs out, all the bullshit jobs get cut. AI may give us more efficiency, but it will be filled with more bullshit jobs and consumption,…

"Bullshit jobs" are the rubbish required to keep the paperwork tidy, assessed and filed. No company pays someone to do -nothing-. AI isn't going to generate those jobs, it's going to automate them. ALL our bullshit jobs are going away, and those people will be unemployed.

I foresee programers replaced by AI and the people who programed becoming pointy haired bosses to the AI.

Re: The ‘white-collar bloodbath’ is all part of the AI hype machine

#664
post #605
post #513

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Keynes was talking about work in every sense,including house chore. We're well below 15 hours of house chores by now, so that part became true.

Washing machines created a revolution where we could now expend 1/10th of the human labour to wash the same amount of clothes as before. We now have more than 10 times as much clothes to wash. I don’t know if it’s induced demand, revealed preference or Jevon’s paradox, maybe all 3.

I saw some research once that the hours women spend doing housework hasn't changed. I think because human nature, not anything to do with the tech.

Re: The ‘white-collar bloodbath’ is all part of the AI hype machine

#665
post #658

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Keynes suggested that by 2030, we’d be working 15 hour workweeks, with the rest of the time used for leisure. Instead, we chose consumption, and helicopter money gave us bullshit jobs so we could keep buying more bullshit. This is fairly evident by the fact when the helicopter money runs out, all the bullshit jobs get cut. AI may give us more efficiency, but it will be filled with more bullshit jobs and consumption,…

I think something Keynes got wrong there and much AI job discussion ignores is people like working, subject to the job being fun. Look at the richest people with no need to work - Musk, Buffett etc. Still working away, often well past retirement age with no need for the money. Keynes himself, wealth and probably with tenure working away on his theories. In the UK you can quite easily do nothing by going on disability…

Meanwhile your examples for happy working are all billionaires who do w/e tf they want, and your example of sad non working are disabled people.

Re: The ‘white-collar bloodbath’ is all part of the AI hype machine

#666
post #416

Maybe someone can help me wrap my head around this in a different way, because here's how I see it. If these tools are really making people so productive, shouldn't it be painfully obvious in companies' output? For example, if these AI coding tools were an amazing productivity boost in the end, we'd expect to see software companies shipping features and fixes faster than ever before. There would be a huge burst in in…

"shouldn't it be painfully obvious in companies' output?" No. The bottleneck isn't intellectual productivity. The bottleneck is a legion of other things; regulation, IP law, marketing, etc. The executive email writers and meeting attenders have a swarm of business considerations ricocheting around in their heads in eternal battle with each other. It takes a lot of supposedly brilliant thinking to safely monetize all…

The things you mention in the legion of other things are actually things LLMs do better than intellectual productivity. They can spew entire libraries of marketing bs, summarize decades of legal precedents and fill out mountains of red tape checklists.

They have trouble with debugging obvious bugs though.

Re: The ‘white-collar bloodbath’ is all part of the AI hype machine

#667

Only way to know for sure you're safe from replacement is if your job is a necessary part of something generating revenue and your not easily replaceable. Otherwise you should assume the company won't hesitate to replace you. It's just business.

> if your job is a necessary part of something generating revenue and your not easily replaceable.

First part of this statement is clearly false. People on the phone in a tech support company are very much necessary to generate revenue, people tending to field were very much necessary to extract the value of the fields. Draftsmen before CAD were absolutely necessary etc.

Yet technology replaced them, or is in the process of doing so.

So then, your statement simplifies to “if you want to be safe for replacement have a job that’s hard to replace” which isn’t very useful anymore.

Re: The ‘white-collar bloodbath’ is all part of the AI hype machine

#668
post #513

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Keynes was talking about work in every sense,including house chore. We're well below 15 hours of house chores by now, so that part became true.

Clearly you don’t have children!

I was thinking it's a function of the social setting. Single bloke 1h/week. Couple 5h/week. With kids continuous. Or some such.

Re: The ‘white-collar bloodbath’ is all part of the AI hype machine

#669

Earlier quoted context omitted.

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I have a fusion reactor to sell to you.

Some people are ahead of you by 3.5 years [0]:

> Helion has a clear path to net electricity by 2024, and has a long-term goal of delivering electricity for 1 cent per kilowatt-hour. (!)

[0] https://blog.samaltman.com/helion

Re: The ‘white-collar bloodbath’ is all part of the AI hype machine

#670

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Keynes suggested that by 2030, we’d be working 15 hour workweeks, with the rest of the time used for leisure. Instead, we chose consumption, and helicopter money gave us bullshit jobs so we could keep buying more bullshit. This is fairly evident by the fact when the helicopter money runs out, all the bullshit jobs get cut. AI may give us more efficiency, but it will be filled with more bullshit jobs and consumption,…

Keynes lived in a time when the working class was organized and exerting its power over its destiny. We live in a time that the working class is unbelievably brainwashed and manipulated.

He also lived in a time when the intense importance and function of a moral and cultural framework for society was taken for granted. He would have never imagined the level of social and moral degeneration of today.

I will not go into specifics because the authoritarians still disagree and think everything is fine with degenerative debauchery and try to abuse anyone even just pointing to failing systems, but it all does seem like civilization ending developments regardless of whether it leads to the rise of another civilization, e.g., the Asian Era, i.e., China, India, Russia, Japan, et al.

Ironically, I don’t see the US surviving this transitional phase, especially considering it essentially does not even really exist anymore at its core. Would any of the founders of America approve of any of America today? The forefathers of India, China, Russia, and maybe Japan would clearly approve of their countries and cultures. America is a hollowed out husk with a facade of red, white, and blue pomp and circumstance that is even fading, where America means both everything and nothing as a manipulative slogan to enrich the few, a massive private equity raid on America.

When you think of the Asian countries, you also think of distinct and unique cultures that all have their advantages and disadvantages, the true differences that make them true diversity that makes humanity so wonderful. In America you have none of that. You have a decimated culture that is jumbled with all kinds of muddled and polluted cultures from all over the place, all equally confused and bewildered about what they are and why they feel so lost only chasing dollars and shiny objects to further enrich the ever smaller group of con artist psychopathic narcissists at the top, a kind of worst form of aristocracy that humanity has yet ever produced, lacking any kind of sense of noblesse oblige, which does not even extend to simply not betraying your own people.

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