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Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

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661–670 of 777 posts

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#661
post #86

Don’t worry. President Trump knows what he’s doing. If anything, this is a perfect time to invest before the markets inevitably recover.

So your theory is that there’s an amazing master plan, but only insane people on Twitter (and notably, not, say, _Wall Street_, or any economists) are smart enough to see its ineffable wisdom?

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#662
post #585

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Imagine what the vibes would be on the West Coast if there was a huge set of policy changes that decimated and liquidated the high tech industries. All those software and engineering jobs just vaporize in a span of 20 years. > Then the media makes you the butt of jokes. Calls you “flyover country.” The people in your analogy are not the same types suffering from rust belt rage. One group is willing and very wanting…

What can I say except: I don’t buy that at all. I lived in Los Angeles for 8 years and Boston for 5. There are some cultural differences but the people there are still just human. When a region and a culture declines, it gets more nostalgic and reactionary. The arrow of cause and effect goes that way. Places like Detroit were innovation centers and much more culturally open before their entire economy was rug pulled.…

LA and Boston are both centers of creativity, curiosity and learning, without religion encroaching on every day life of guiding peoples thoughts.

None of that is true for the rust belt or bible belt.

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#663
post #596

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Tariff revenues would help to plug that hole somewhat. "Somewhat" being a key operand here. America is a net importer globally, a protracted trade war is inherently leveraged against us. Neither the rock nor the hard place is forcing anyone to harass our trade partners and abandon our defensive alliances.

What do you mean? We can't afford to finance their security anymore. Nor can we afford their protective tariffs against our goods. Why can't we afford it? Because we're running $1.8T budget deficit, and paying $1T+ in interest on our debt next year. Because each man, woman and child in the US already owes $100K+ straight from birth. Do you just want to keep adding to that number hoping that we'll never turn into Zimb…

> Nor can we afford their protective tariffs against our goods.

Virtually none of the US’s major trading partners have high tariffs. Per the World Bank:

- EU: 1.39% total effective tariffs.

- China: 2.3%

- Canada: 2.35%

- Mexico: 1.21%

- Japan: 1.84%

US (prior to Trump II): 1.47%

US (next week): Estimated at over 20%.

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#664
post #640

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> In the US, a person used to be able to graduate high school and get a job that could support owning a house with a yard, a non-working spouse, a car, and multiple children. That was never sustainable in the long run and no one can bring that back.

Why was it not sustainable? Clearly the houses were there, and the non-working spouses, and the car and the children...

Well, we can't count on the entire rest of the world having all their factories bombed and being the only nation with reasonable manufacturing capability all the time.

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#665

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The problem is that the tariffs can be undone by the next president. I think that would discourage any investment in industry here. Even if this works, I feel like there is now a political commitment to undoing the tariffs.

They can, yes. But this is likely harder than you think. Suppose Trump puts a bunch of tariffs on cheap Chinese tires so that American tires are price competitive again (no idea if this happened, this is a hypothetical). If the next president removes those tariffs it would look like fucking over the tire manufacturers in whichever swing state they live in.

Ya I just have a suspicion that for some industries maybe easily done but for others, four years isn't long enough to embed yourself in an economy to the point where you have political support. It's not a bad idea to onshore some manufacturing. Like targeting the semiconductor and medicine industries should be a higher priority than autos I think. But what could happen is the companies put on a show of onshoring but nothing is really done because they know four years isn't long enough. For those two industries I suspect it's not.

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#666
post #617

Earlier quoted context omitted.

To be clear, this is going to have to pass the house. Then, Trump will veto it. Then, the senate will need 16 Republican senators (30% of the party) to vote against it. And it's still a toss-up if Trump will even obey it or if he'll executively order customs to continue the Tariffs. So unless Republicans suddenly grow a spine, which is unlikely given their current strategy is "hide the stock ticket on Fox news" and p…

I absolutely agree that impeachment and conviction is the only way to restore the world's trust in the US. If this bill passes and Trump vetos it, don't you think that could raise the odds for a 3rd impeachment process?

In my opinion? No, and precisely because you used the words "third impeachment". I have come to realize there simply is no bottom. He was truly right: he could shoot someone in broad daylight and he wouldn't be held accountable.

If Republicans weren't aligned with Trump, it wouldn't have been a 51-aye vote. If they actually cared, they would be on the news discussing historical precedent and impeachment right now. Yesterday they were praising him on Fox, calling this a genius plan that will save America while denying the market collapse is even haplening. They, again, talk of a third term for glorious leader.

The party has become fundamentally incapable of admitting they are wrong about anything to the point that they would rather descend into a fascist regime that disappears political opposition to El Salvador prisons.

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#667

Earlier quoted context omitted.

To be clear, this is going to have to pass the house. Then, Trump will veto it. Then, the senate will need 16 Republican senators (30% of the party) to vote against it. And it's still a toss-up if Trump will even obey it or if he'll executively order customs to continue the Tariffs. So unless Republicans suddenly grow a spine, which is unlikely given their current strategy is "hide the stock ticket on Fox news" and p…

My assumption is that Trump understands what a mess he has gotten himself into and wants to extricate his head, without losing face. Congressional action will allow him to do that because he can blame congress for undoing his tariffs which was a good idea all along. This is the only way out.

I don't see what would lead you to this conclusion. Multiple members of his cabinet have direct said the plan will do this, so it's not like they don't know they're collapsing the economy. His secretary of commerce (?) has published papers about wanting to remove the US dollar as the reserve currency and destroy our status as the hegemon in pursuit of us becoming a T-shirt sweatshop nation instead of an infotech powerhouse.

Heck, even Musk accidentally said the quiet part aloud on Twitter about burning it all down.

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#668

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah, that's the uncertainty we all have to face. I hope they find some local jobs at least. I don't even know what I can do if I can't find an IT job. I don't have any other skills.

I feel similarly, and I actually just got laid off last week. However, I don’t think tariffs are going to result in no more IT jobs, I’m sure there will be jobs available, they might just not pay as much as they have.

I wish you good luck. Man I don't know what I can do.

I can't Uber because I only have one car.

I can't onlyfan because I'm not a nude female.

I can't twitch because there are already millions out there.

I don't know what I can do. Seriously.

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#669

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Dutch and Swiss are very powerful, relative to their size. You can say fantasy things like "if they were invaded tomorrow", but that's not reality. The US has atomic weapons, but has lost almost every war it has started since having nukes. Having weapons doesn't mean you will be faced with contexts to actually use them. "Genome-targeted bioweapons" is just made up nonsense. Just making up "if" statements of fanta…

The idea of an "atomic bomb" would have seemed fantastical before it was developed. Bioweaponry is underfunded, far more dangerous than you think, and is a hot topic for the PRC [0]. And let's be clear — the US did not "lose a war" in Afghanistan or Iraq. Yes, we had failed pseudo-occupations. That is not the same as losing a war. No country, save perhaps Iraq during the Gulf War, has experienced the force of a moder…

> And let's be clear — the US did not "lose a war" in Afghanistan or Iraq. Yes, we had failed pseudo-occupations. That is not the same as losing a war.

You do not wage war for the sake of war, war is a tool for achieving political goals. What you're saying is that the U.S. won battles in these wars, but ultimately lost because they failed to achieve their political objectives — which were the very reasons the wars were started in the first place. They lost in Vietnam, Afghanistan, and Iraq. They lost all of these wars.

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#670

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Haha please describe the NATO invasion of Russia. This sounds entertaining.

Easy. 1. Crimea, Donetsk People's Republic, Lugansk People's Republic, Kherson Oblast, Zaporozhskaya Oblast are now parts of Russia. 2. NATO still thinks those are parts of Ukraine. 3. Some of NATO countries are now in talks about sending their troops to Ukraine.

Haha I was thinking you might describe the decisionmaking involved in having a multinational defensive alliance invade a nuclear power.

Instead you decided to use it as an opportunity to claim that the Russian-occupied territories should be internationally recognized. You're funny.

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