Live data from Hacker News

Is the world becoming uninsurable?

charleshughsmith.substack.com

661–670 of 1001 posts

Re: Is the world becoming uninsurable?

#661
The really issue is that most people don't understand insurance.

People reduce or stop caring when they know insurance will cover things. In my opinion this leads to higher losses and higher costs. Especially when people choose more expensive things.

Re: Is the world becoming uninsurable?

#662
post #641

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Hurricanes are mostly just flood damage in the US, and some wind/debris damage exactly like the blown over trees you mention. Houses generally aren't destroyed by hurricanes in the sense of "the storm literally ripped them up", they're made uninhabitable by storm surges (flood). The scary ones are tornados. And tornados do genuinely fuck shit up. Even in those "enlightened" parts of the world you think have proper bu…

Tornados might be more intense but only for a short period of time and in a small area. I don't see any of those where the tornado is lasting days, causing sustained damage. There are some where there are multiple tornadoes in a span, but each individual tornado is itself quick and violent but localized within a mile or so at most. Compare some incidents with, Hurricane Sandy, for example, where it traveled across th…

[deleted]

Re: Is the world becoming uninsurable?

#663

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> most of the time, they're optimistic. Evidence? Has anyone collated predictions over time and compared them with outcomes to date? I can remember a number of specific predictions (e.g. that snow would be unknown in most of the UK by the early 2000s) that were pessimistic. Of course, I recall those because they got a lot of media attention at the time and the media reporting is biased to the most extreme predictions…

HN just had a "Whoops we undercounted plant C02 absorption by 40% for the last 40 years" post so I would say the errors mostly go in one direction.

The errors on direct influences to warming have been overwhelming on the "too optimistic" direction. We are above the most pessimistic predictions from decades ago.

The errors on consequences of the warming... I'm not sure one can even talk about them without citing specific studies, because those things tend to have undefined timeframes and way into the future contexts (like this 4°C one... is this even possible to achieve by burning fossil fuels?)

Re: Is the world becoming uninsurable?

#664
post #67

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Like we see in California, when the government sets a price ceiling, insurance companies just leave Does not answer the question. With no price caps, no one will be able to buy insurance even if required by law. So that means if you own a house in a risky area, you will be unable to sell it and your values will fall. The price caps are to prevent that. But to me, there should be big incentives to prevent building an…

Why is the burden on insurance companies to make up for individual poor decisions? In some cases it makes sense to socialise the losses, but I'm not convinced this is one of them.

Insurance Companies do need to make a profit and Local, State and Fed Gov is allowing building in very risky areas. Just look at Florida, that is a very risky area for weather and sea rise.

So in reality the burden is falling on Insurance Companies. High rates will in a way prevent building in those areas.

Re: Is the world becoming uninsurable?

#665
post #67

Like we see in California, when the government sets a price ceiling, insurance companies just leave. Same in Florida. If the free market truly was allowed run normally, the insurance rates in Pacific Palisades or on the Florida coast would be so high that no one could afford to live there. Is that a bad thing? If someone was living in a house near where they tested missiles, we'd call them crazy. At what point can we…

>Like we see in California, when the government sets a price ceiling, insurance companies just leave Does not answer the question. With no price caps, no one will be able to buy insurance even if required by law. So that means if you own a house in a risky area, you will be unable to sell it and your values will fall. The price caps are to prevent that. But to me, there should be big incentives to prevent building an…

"With no price caps, no one will be able to buy insurance even if required by law."

Burden of proof?

Re: Is the world becoming uninsurable?

#666

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This was the whole issue. California made it illegal for insurance companies to raise rates, so the insurance companies stop renewals. Leaving everybody uninsured. Homeowners couldn't buy insurance at any price.

Public insurance. For housing, healthcare, maybe even cars (since the coprorate political complex insists that we HAVE to drive everywhere). At some point, we have to accept that the middlemen are siphoning value, not providing any. Vanguard it and let elected admins set the codes.

As a British citizen by birth, I'm amused by the idea that Americans may get National Insurance for houses before they do for healthcare.

Re: Is the world becoming uninsurable?

#667
> If the state or federal government offers an open checkbook--we'll pay any and all losses, no questions asked--then those ultimately paying these astronomical bills--the taxpayers--will reasonably ask: why are we subsidizing people to rebuild in places that are clearly no longer habitable due to the probabilities of another fire, flood or hurricane?

There's two options:

1: Pay people to leave, perhaps 80% of the fair market value as of a certain date.

2: Pay people for their loss, but do not allow them to rebuild. (Unless the house is built to stricter standards, and meeting those standards might not be covered by the loss.)

Re: Is the world becoming uninsurable?

#668

It seems everyone is on the same "We will find new solutions to a new problem". I totally agree. Here is a list of all new solutions we need: 1) not insure places at higher risk 2) mass desalinification 3) fix US hot climate grids sparkles and/or place them underground 4) Street corridors to isolate fires in neighborhood 5) Build with more fire-resistant materials 6) Install automated hydrant towers with cameras able…

> We'll develop mass production de-salinification plants and have enough water. And then you'll have the brine problem.

brine can be used for mineral extraction.

Re: Is the world becoming uninsurable?

#669

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s possible that solve the hurricane problems with proper building regulations and lower the risk of huge wildfires with controlled burning. But the US as always prefers to pretend that there’s nothing to be done when other parts of the world has figured it out. We have cyclones here similar to the hurricanes in the US and usually it just blows over some trees maybe causes a power outage. The absolute worst I have…

Wildfires are not the problem. They happen all the time without causing billion-dollar insurance claims. Insurance is always assets x risk. The issue is expensive flamable housing (assets) in a wildfire area (risk). We ask for trouble when we create million-dollar wooden houses surrounded by manicured gardens in desert enviroments. And build on a slope facing pervailing winds. The answer is concrete/brick houses with…

That doesn't align with the reality of these areas. To get insurance in these areas you have to demonstrate that you have created a defensible space around your house. This is enforced by local fire department inspections. I know this because I live near a fire prone area. Despite these things the area still burned. The problem isn't "lawns" or "wooden houses". In the case of the LA fires you would have had the burned out husks of concrete houses that would need to be demolished if everything was made of concrete. This was a black swan event that will require a thoughtful response.

Re: Is the world becoming uninsurable?

#670
The graph is potentially misleading in a few ways. Population has increased, more houses to get destroyed. House prices outpace CPI. Costs went up, but so did revenue for the above reasons. Obviously those factors are independent of hurricane and fire size and frequency.
Post reply on HN