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GM exits robotaxi market, will bring Cruise operations in house

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Re: GM exits robotaxi market, will bring Cruise operations in house

#661

Post by infecto »

Shawnj2 wrote: post #629
infecto wrote: post #497

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Even vehicles with poor fuel efficiency are better to keep on the road until EOL. This is why cash for clunkers was such a terrible program. I don't follow your take on the current EV gen either. A car at the end of the day derives most of its value from taking you one place to another. The current gen of EVs do this and do it well. "current EV gen is kind of doomed" that is just hyperbole, nothing is changing in the…

Not like that but an ICE car from 2018 and 2023 are basically the same while a 2023 EV is massively more efficient than a 2018 one.

Define massively. I think a 2024 M3 has ~20% better range than a 2018 M3. 2018 was the second year of the M3. The 2018 LR version still had a ~300mile range. No doubt future generations will be better but again, I don't think we will have a case that "dooms" the current generation of EVs, they will serve their primary purpose well until EOL.

Re: GM exits robotaxi market, will bring Cruise operations in house

#662

Post by jefftk »

fiddlerwoaroof wrote: post #653
jefftk wrote: post #493

Earlier quoted context omitted.

When you say "what was available" do you mean what a Tesla was capable of? Because I was trying to talk about things like Cruise driving for 90min at night in a city with no intervention: https://youtu.be/KSRPmng1cmA

If you let me pick the roads, I could easily drive 90 minutes at night with no intervention in the LA area: driving from Ventura, down the 126 to the 5 to LAX can be done basically with no interventions no problem today. It could be done with EAP two years ago too. But, FSD works well on essentially arbitrary roads and it didn't four years ago.

> driving from Ventura, down the 126 to the 5 to LAX

That's a lot simpler than what Cruise showed in their video. Dealing well with pedestrians, stopped cars, cross streets, etc are a significant challenge.

Re: GM exits robotaxi market, will bring Cruise operations in house

#663

Post by zardo »

vlovich123 wrote: post #643
goalonetwo wrote: post #595

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I worked in this industry. No, FSD is not almost there. Not even close. What matters is the long tails of events. You might "feel" it is almost there because it gets it right 99.9% of the time but that is still way too many accidents and injuries in the long run. And the work to go from 99.9% to 99.9999% is 1000x more complicated.

We need to compare against the real human error rate (including drunk drivers, sleepy drivers etc). What is that error rate? Also, fault tolerance error rates don’t work that way - difficulty increases exponentially as you increase fault. In other words, it’s much more difficult than three orders of magnitude to go from 3 9s to 6 9s - it’s easily 5-6 orders of magnitude.

When you're playing candy crush and FSD kills someone, whether or not it's drives better than the average driver is not something the judge and prosecutor are going to consider.

Re: GM exits robotaxi market, will bring Cruise operations in house

#664

Post by Shawnj2 »

infecto wrote: post #661
Shawnj2 wrote: post #629

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not like that but an ICE car from 2018 and 2023 are basically the same while a 2023 EV is massively more efficient than a 2018 one.

Define massively. I think a 2024 M3 has ~20% better range than a 2018 M3. 2018 was the second year of the M3. The 2018 LR version still had a ~300mile range. No doubt future generations will be better but again, I don't think we will have a case that "dooms" the current generation of EVs, they will serve their primary purpose well until EOL.

There’s other big changes like the current model 3 has a heat pump and the 2018 one doesn’t

Re: GM exits robotaxi market, will bring Cruise operations in house

#665

Post by jacobjjacob »

lm28469 wrote: post #620
standardUser wrote: post #602

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Waymo has fully autonomous commercial operations in 5 cities now. Have you been in one? They are amazing. Most taxi/rideshare rides occur in cities, not the snowy mountains of Switzerland. Maybe they never make it to those snowy mountains. Who cares?

Five cities in CA/AZ/TX, aka 90 degrees angles grid, 0 inclines, sunshine 300+ days a year, no snow, no rain, perfect visibility, &c. Musk was 100% talking about self driving cars for the average joe, not robotaxis in gentrified city centers. I also have a fully autonomous vehicles, my vacuum cleaner navigates my living room flawlessly... And again that's exactly what waymo's ceo said, it won't work everywhere / in a…

Zero inclines? No rain? Waymo operates in San Francisco

Re: GM exits robotaxi market, will bring Cruise operations in house

#666

Post by vlovich123 »

zardo wrote: post #663
vlovich123 wrote: post #643

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We need to compare against the real human error rate (including drunk drivers, sleepy drivers etc). What is that error rate? Also, fault tolerance error rates don’t work that way - difficulty increases exponentially as you increase fault. In other words, it’s much more difficult than three orders of magnitude to go from 3 9s to 6 9s - it’s easily 5-6 orders of magnitude.

When you're playing candy crush and FSD kills someone, whether or not it's drives better than the average driver is not something the judge and prosecutor are going to consider.

First, that’s because FSD is legally only L2 and thus legally you are required to pay attention. It has nothing to do with the engineering realities of the impact on improving safety.

When L5 becomes available then this becomes a different calculus. And it’s honestly questionable about how good the characterization actually is since Tesla’s L2 FSD seems to outperform Mercedes’s L3 and it’s more a matter of the liability the manufacturer is willing to take on vs objective measurements of quality.

Re: GM exits robotaxi market, will bring Cruise operations in house

#667

Post by smaddox »

iknowstuff wrote: post #403
smaddox wrote: post #272

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Apparently they're using this CMOS sensor: https://www.onsemi.com/products/sensors/image-sensors/ar0136... It's not an event camera, so it's very much taking images, which are then being processed by computer vision algorithms. Event cameras seem more viable than CMOS sensors for autonomous vehicle applications in the absence of LIDAR. CMOS dynamic range and response isn't as good as the human eye. LIDAR+CMOS is cons…

Nah thats old. They now use https://www.sony-semicon.com/files/62/pdf/p-15_IMX490.pdf and they run multiexposure on every frame. Stupid high dynamic range

Oh, interesting. 120db is much better than what I thought possible with CMOS sensors. Thats competetive with the human eye.

Well, that definitely changes my opinion on how feasible/competitive camera-only autonomous driving can be.

Re: GM exits robotaxi market, will bring Cruise operations in house

#668

Post by karlgkk »

purplethinking wrote: post #504
karlgkk wrote: post #316

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don’t think FSD is vaporware, but I believe it has been massively overpromised and underdelivered. And also, I have reason to believe its going to require yet another major hardware revision - despite teslas protestations

Have a look at V13.2 and tell me they "underdelivered". This is the most advanced AI driving system in the world. It's essentially DriveGPT, trained on absolutely massive amounts of training data on the largest GPU super cluster in the world. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NeNKYRWGgBc Just because Elon was optimistic in 2017 doesn't make this any less impressive.

First of all, I notice that you didn't take issue with my saying another major hardware revision is due - despite Tesla's constant promises that "we totally can do it with this one bro" for the last 4 revisions.

I have been following closely. 13.2 is a major leap forward. It is VERY impressive.

It's also five years late.

It's got some serious issues, such as intervention rates (which, despite being massively lower, are still too high).

It has trouble in California-style adverse weather conditions. This is largely due to it's vision based sensors.

And by the way, I'm not saying they're not going to "pull it off". I think they're one of the few that will succeed, to be honest. I'm saying that it is nowhere close to where it needs to be to match Tesla's promises.

> This is the most advanced AI driving system in the world.

That is a bold claim, and one that I don't think is true. Tied for first or just second most advanced, I would absolutely believe. And certainly one of the five major players.

It's also missing some key customer service and realtime service components, that took Waymo over 4 years to roll out and fine tune. And Waymo is still having edge case issues!

> Just because Elon was optimistic in 2017 doesn't make this any less impressive.

That understates his repeated broken and aggressive promises, often made during investor meetings. It makes it hard to believe his claims about the future.

Re: GM exits robotaxi market, will bring Cruise operations in house

#669

Post by AnthonyMouse »

dangus wrote: post #659
AnthonyMouse wrote: post #346

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> A car dealership has the opposite incentive: every dealer-performed warranty service is a payment from the manufacturer to the dealer. Wouldn't this be served just as well by having independent repair shops certified by the manufacturer to do recall and warranty repairs, without prohibiting direct sales of vehicles?

Sure! How many of those does Tesla have?

But now you're arguing for right-to-repair laws or similar rather than prohibiting manufacturers from making direct sales.
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